“If Premier Račan and SDP preserve in their attempts to delay the elections until the spring of next year, then they will occur much sooner than they had hoped, that is, in the shortest possible timeframe,” warned a high ranking state official, one of the leaders of HSS in a telephone conversation for Nacional.

There is only one way to avoid this catastrophe: considering all the parties have agreed that Croatia should submit its application for membership and that all the necessary conditions, there should be no barriers for them to give their consent for President Stjepan Mesić to form an expert government which would respond to the 3500 questions by the spring and harmonize the fifty laws. After this government would fulfill the European obligations, President Mesić could call new elections in the spring. However, not even then would it be all the same who would win the elections and come to power, but the danger would be greatly reduced: after Croatia achieves candidate status, every government would be strictly restricted to European standards in their activities.“The excuse that postponing the elections is necessary for the government to pass another 50 laws and respond to 3500 questions from the EU is completely unfounded. To date, the government has sent only 11 laws into the parliamentary procedure. If they continue at this tempo, the remaining 40 laws will not be completed even with a year long extension on the mandate. Let’s not fool ourselves: the government is simply not capable of responding to 3500 questions and sending another 40 laws into procedure by early November. Therefore, HSS believes that it is necessary to call the elections as soon as possible, at the end of October at the latest. That would permit the election winners to form a government by year’s end and to get the questions answered and laws into parliament by the spring session. If we put off the elections, then we certainly will not get on that train that is taking Bulgaria and Romania to the EU in 2007. Which is why HSS is in a hurry to have these elections: the government is not Croatia’s only guarantee for Croatia’s entry into the EU. Every new government, regardless of who is to win, will properly complete these obligations.”

With such an assessment, the high ranking HSS official again opened the issue of the fate of the ruling coalition: Nacional’s source confirmed that HSS has already given up on Ivica Račan. If the Premier continues to insist on postponing the elections until next year, HSS will find a reason to withdraw its ministers from the government, thus forcing the Premier to call new elections. Such announcements, at least coming from Croatian politicians, has to be taken with a grain of salt: despite all that they’ve said against the other, there is no reason to exclude the possibility of a spectacular reconciliation between Ivica Račan and Zlatko Tomčić.

One other thing: the comment from Nacional’s source that it makes no difference who will come to power in terms of fulfilling obligations towards the EU sends a clear message from HSS to HDZ, HSLS, HSP and DC saying, we are leaving the door open to post-election cooperation. This message is also one aimed at shutting down SDP’s trump card that only that party is Croatia’s guarantee for accession to the EU.

Big pressures on Račan

Proof that Nacional’s source was not making empty threats was already evident on Wednesday 14 May at the meeting of the party presidents of the ruling coalition, which several of the participants have confirmed for Nacional. HSS president Zlatko Tomčić spent hours pressuring Račan, accusing him of falsely presenting the conclusions and the course of the most recent government session. Tomčić warned Račan that he cannot threaten HSS. He asked the Premier to take back the conclusions which he personally wrote and signed, which Račan could not consent to.

He failed to calm Tomčić with the threats that he would resign and put the entire problem on the agenda of the open government session, so the public could see just what conditions he had to work under. Witnesses claim that Račan took Tomčić’s pressure very hard: for the first time he showed signs of weakness, fatigue and anxiety. Unlike Tomčić who confidently brings down all who stand in his way that it is now clear to everyone that his ambitions and goals are much greater than he would admit. As Tomčić refused to give in, the meeting of the five party leaders ended in the worst atmosphere to date.

The situation in the ruling coalition has become completely hopeless, and it is only a matter of time before we see who jumps ship: will Račan resign or will Tomčić pull his ministers out of the government. In both parties, there is the belief that the first party to leave the coalition and cause the fall of the government will fare better at the elections.

Most to blame for such an end is the intolerance between Ivica Račan and Zlatko Tomčić, as well as the feverish attempts by both SDP and HSS to remain in power. In the eyes of some of their colleagues, Račan for Tomčić has become the red robe which Tomčić cannot help but attack. Even when the two men agree, if Račan is to first to go public, Tomčić jumps to his feet and denies the agreement. Tomčić’s ceaseless attacks on Račan are aimed at two goals: to improve HSS’s position before the elections in a possible new coalition with SDP and to try to win the Premier’s position in place of Račan. Tomčić has the room for such behaviour as the survival of the coalition depends on HSS, as well as the fact that as President of the Parliament, he in fact won a political position which does not belong to him.

Tomčić overinflated his position

Tomčić has given his position much more significance that is usual in democratic systems, and has even forced his way to become the number three man in the country. In a normal democratic country, the Parliamentary Speaker is first among the equals, an organizer without any real political weight. Which is why many resent Tomčić for giving in to Tomčić for some long: they are seeking that he put an end to the unprecedented blackmailing. A new weighing of forces is currently ongoing: Premier Račan has announced that the government will not cover the damages to agriculture resulting from the long-lasting drought with unlimited resources.

However, if Tomčić wants to achieve a solid election result, he has to prove to his voters that he is the man capable of protecting them. If he does not succeed, and if Račan can prevent him, then Tomčić will be ashamed before his voting body.

With their behaviour, Račan and Tomčić are causing irreparable damage to the ruling coalition, and also to their own parties. Their pitiful appearances as to how the public has not recognized the government’s achievements are also damaging. It is logical to wonder how these two men and these two parties can continue to participate in a new coalition after all the insults and attacks made at the other’s expense. The explanation that politicians quickly forget the insults if they can stay in power is less acceptable with the voters: they are so fed up with immoral and inconsistent politicians that the result is over 40% of the voting body which are still undecided.

It is difficult to say who is most to blame for the current stalemate. Having learned from experience to date, HSS president Zlatko Tomčić has the right to suspect the government’s capabilities that they will complete their European obligations on time. However, Premier Račan is in the right when he warns that Croatia must not lose this opportunity for EU accession due to elections in October. If Croatia is not able to respond to the 3500 EU questions and harmonize the first fifty laws to EU standards, this historical opportunity to finally get out of the Balkan mud.

If the elections are called for early November, despite HSS’s claims, the European obligations will not be met by next summer. The politicians will be overwhelmed with their election campaigns all summer and fall, no one will be willing to lose time responding to EU questions and harmonizing laws. If the parties of the ruling coalition again receive the opportunity to form the next government, they will spend months in negotiations on its composition, and then they will need time to get acquainted with the tasks before them and then begin to competently resolving the problems. If the current opposition takes power, the situation will be even more dramatic. HDZ, HSLS and HSP continue to hold reserve on some of the key issues for EU accession, such as cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, the return of refugees and compensation for lost property.

While they clear up those issues with the EU, this will not be a matter of months but years, and for that period, Croatia’s accession to the EU will be frozen. If HDZ, HSLS and HSP form the government, it could be predicted that Serbia will jump onto the EU train in place of Croatia.

Right-wingers still too rigid

HSS is likely in the right when they predict that the HDZ, HSLS and HSP leaders are willing to respect the EU criteria. Ivo Sanader, Dražen Budiša and Anto Djapić are likely ready, for pragmatic reasons, to back away form their most rigid anti-European standpoints. They have already adjusted some of their old party standpoints, but one thing is sure: those changes have not reached the party bases year. The majority of the membership of HDZ, HSLS and HSP, unlike Sanader, Budiša and Djapić have remained in the same political position since the early 1990s, and are just as ideological oriented, politically rigid and nationalistically fueled that it will be impossible to enter into the EU with such politicians. At the state and local levels, when the politicians longing for revenge and hungry to get back into their positions which caused Croatia ten years of isolation, all kinds of things will happen, and Sanader, Budiša and Djapić will not be able to control them, even with the best of intentions.

This new relentless war between Ivica Račan and Zlatko Tomčić and the political relations in HDZ, HSP and HSLS show that the political elite are not up to the responsibilities before them, and that they are not capable of bringing Croatia into the EU. Due to the squabbles in the ruling coalition and he lack of a European profiled opposition, Croatia is facing a catastrophe: to spend another ten years cast aside from Europe in to slither through the Balkan mud.

There is only one way to avoid this catastrophe: considering all the parties have agreed that Croatia should submit its application for membership and that all the necessary conditions, there should be no barriers for them to give their consent for President Stjepan Mesić to form an expert government which would respond to the 3500 questions by the spring and harmonize the fifty laws. After this government would fulfill the European obligations, President Mesić could call new elections in the spring. However, not even then would it be all the same who would win the elections and come to power, but the danger would be greatly reduced: after Croatia achieves candidate status, every government would be strictly restricted to European standards in their activities.