The fabricated affair with wiretapping and party assemblies where negative emotions and the hot-headed atmosphere is a reminder of similar assemblies that HDZ held in the 90’s; they did not, as shown by Nacional’s public opinion poll where 2000 subjects were questioned, increase HDZ popularity. It actually had an opposite effect: it mobilized and homogenized the voters towards supporting the leading coalition, especially SDP. Because of this, over the past several days, as determined by Nacional pollsters and other public opinion polls, a spectacular twist in the attitude of the voting body occurred: while HDZ wins over 55 representative seats, SDP will receive 46 plus at least 6 for the mutual list of SDP and IDS in Rijeka. In the new Parliamentary alliance, SDP will have a total of 52 representatives. Its coalition partners from HNS, according to Nacional’s research, will independently have 7 seats plus 2 seats on the coalition list with PGS and SBHS. HSS will take over 7 sears, and IDS will have 5. The total leading coalition will have 75 representative places in the Parliament. At the same, right-wing parties accompanying HDZ, the coalition with HSLS and DC will enter Parliament with 5 representatives and HSP with another five. Together these right-wing and right center parties will win over 65 seats. That will not be enough to win over the government. The right-wing parties will not receive much assistance from Croatians living outside of the national borders, because they can only select six representatives at the most, and because of the election procedure no more than three representatives are actually expected. At the same lime, the left center coalition will have all or most representatives from the national minority groups, which can total eight at the most. Even after adding up the representative votes from outside of Croatia and national minority groups, there will be no significant changes or difference in the number of representatives between left-wing parties and the right center. It will be the opposite: it is expected that the left center will be more convincing. The research shows that Libra and the Liberal party from the coalition side, as well as HIP, HB, and HKDU with the right side, will not cross the election line.

The fabricated affair with wiretapping and the hot-headed HDZ assemblies have had only one effect until now: they have mobilized SDP votes because voters fear that revenge and purgery could begin, as recalled from the former HDZ mandate; the campaign has only begun, and already half of voters are still undecided.One more specific fact was found in the Nacional research: 53% of subjects did not mention who they would vote for. That does not mean that they will not vote: 70% of all subjects questioned confirmed that they will vote on 23 November, but one portion of these individuals did not want to answer specifically for whom.

The largest amount of party presidents measure their strength in two election units, I. and X. In the first, Zagreb’s election unit, from the SDP list, Ivica Račan would enter Parliament; on the other list, five more representatives from SDP and Milan Bandić would enter. In Zagreb, HDZ’s list would allow the Vice President of the party, Jadranka Kosor, to enter Parliament, former Minister of Culture, Božo Biškupić, and two more members of the party. The party President, Vesna Pusić, will support other members on the HNS list in Zagreb to enter Parliament. The real sensation is the fact that Mate Granić, who leads the HSLS and DC list, will not pass the election threshold.

Unlike Granić, his coalition partner Dražen Budiša should have more luck in the tenth, so-called Split election unit. That is where Budiša should cross the election threshold, as the one and only representative from the HSLS and DC list. HDZ’s election list, led by Ivo Sanader, should be convincingly triumphant in Split and portions of Dalmatia with eight representatives. In that election unit, for example, Ivić Pašalić, the President of Hrvatski Blok (HB), has no chance at crossing the election threshold.

In the second, Bjelovar election unit, only Zlatko Tomčić, the President of HSS, will cross the election threshold, along with Đurđa Adlešić who will lead the mutual coalition list between HSLS and DC. In that election unit, where HDZ and SDP will win over five representative mandates each, the election threshold will also be crossed by a representative from HSP. In the third, Varaždin election unit, the Minister of Public Works, Redevelopment, and Construction, Radimir Čačić, who is most deserving because of the construction of the roadway network, will barely cross the election threshold, while SDP and HDZ will win over six representative seats.

Nacional’s public opinion poll shows how the method in which HDZ accused the leading coalition of illegal wiretapping, and its pre-election assemblies charged with negative emotions and threats to its political challengers, scared citizens and democratic oriented voters, as well as followers of the left and left center parties. It reminded them, as SDP voters warned, of what could happen to Croatia if HDZ once again returned to power. That portion of individuals who follow the left center are convinced that once again Croatia would be ruled by revanchism and purgery, and a political and ideological showdown could occur, to turn time back to pursuit and public attacks. Even though many left-wing voters planned to stay at home as a sign of protest against Račan’s government, the beginning of the HDZ campaign has forced them to change their decision, despite their dissatisfaction, and vote for the parties in the leading coalition. They admit that the leading coalition did in fact succeed in calming down political passion during its rule, and completely marginalized and pacified political and ideological extremism. That is how they implemented social stability that, if HDZ and the right-wing got back in power, could be seriously threatened. Because HDZ still has not explained their plans for economics and have only offered a political showdown in the beginning of their election campaign, large numbers of voters are supporting parties in the leading coalition because they guarantee stability. Specifically said: they would rather commit themselves to a known future, than to political and economic uncertainty.

Of course the fact that many voters have still not decided who they will vote for, and that two months remain until the elections, leaves enough space for all parties to improve and completely change their election results. In Nacional and other public opinion polls, the opposition warns for the last time that they must change their pre-election tactics because this old-fashioned pre-election rhetoric will politically destroy them.