“If the government changes in Croatia and if the right wing wins in the elections, it is sure enough that Croatia’s entrance in the EU will not occur in this decade. That is because of a very simple reason: a portion of the leading politicians of the top parties in the right coalition, mainly HDZ, HSLS and HSP, are threatened by the reexamination of the current method of cooperating with the International Justice Courts in the Hague; while they spend time criticizing the current leading coalition for being too accommodating in that cooperation, the announcement has been made that the Constitutional Law on Cooperation with the Courts in the Hague will change. That means that HDZ, HSLS and HSP will not, as promised by their leaders, improve the cooperation with the international community, but specifically the opposite: it will return to the 1990’s when Croatia was nearly isolated from the international community. That is why the EU, not desiring that Croatia’s international position worsens, supports the leading coalition and not HDZ and its coalition partners”, announced a diplomatic representative from one of the leading EU country members in Croatia on Monday, 27 October for Nacional. His opinion is shared by most diplomatic representatives in international institutions of Zagreb, which he discovered for Nacional during discussions with several high ranked officials of the EU in Brussels.

LEAD1 The EU and the USA insist on complete cooperation with the Hague because they are convinced that this relationship shows how the country functions as a legal state and respects the laws LEAD2 Even though HDZ has spent months supporting every American move, Washington is not getting involved in the campaign or showing public signs of thanks LEAD3 Even if Sanader settled the opposition in his party within 6 months,the loss of time would be difficult to replace and Croatia would not enter the EU with Bulgaria and Romania LEAD4 In appearances by Andrije Hebranga, Joško Kontić, Dražen Budiša and leading members of HSP,the West recognized old anti-European and anti-democratic sentences One of the most influential diplomatic representatives in Zagreb, the German ambassador Gebhardt Weiss, in an interview with Novi List, announced that the Croatian voters should not have any illusions because a win by the right wing would slow down time for Croatia’ entrance into the EU. According to ambassador Weiss, as a direct reaction to the comment by Ivić Pašalić that the new Parliamentary majority will ensure that Gotovina will never be extradited to the Hague, his announcement, as experienced by diplomatic circles in Zagreb, is an answer to several of the comments by the leaders of HDZ, HSLS, and HSP that directly or indirectly repeated what Pašalić said.

“Because of all that, despite a portion of disappointed Croatian citizens that believe that it is not important who wins in the near elections, leading politicians in the European Union and a large number of country members do not share that opinion. They believe that this election is decisive for the European future of Croatia. If the EU and the USA are dissatisfied with the methods that the leading coalition uses to fulfill its responsibilities to the Hague, you can only imagine how they experience the behavior by the right coalition who openly attacked Račan’s government for being too soft towards the International Justice Courts. Because of all that, there is a basic feeling in the EU that if Croatia remains under rule by the leading coalition, they will have a good chance of entering the EU by 2008. That is the interest of Croatian citizens and the EU. If HDZ and the right coalition come to power, the doors to the EU will be shut”, said Nacional’s source from the diplomatic circles in Zagreb, who added: “Even if Sanader had the best intention to cooperate with the Hague and be more efficient that the current government, they would require at least six months to break the opposition in their own party and between coalition partners. More time would be required for the European Union to believe the truthfulness in Sanader’s words. That is a waste of time that will be difficult to replace: instead of the spring of 2004, Croatia’s request for EU candidacy status would be considered in the winter of 2004 at the earliest, or more realistically in spring 2005. That means that the request by Croatia would be decided on by 25 and not fourteen member countries of the EU, which would additionally complicate and prolong the situation. If HDZ takes over power, there is no theoretic chance that Croatia will join the train with Bulgaria and Romania for entrance into the EU”.

Looking at the observation that despite every warnings the president of HDZ Sanader is still enjoying the public support of several political leaders, first of all the Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi, the president of the Bavaria government, Edmund Stoiber, the Austrian Premier Wolfgang Schussel and the president of the government in Ireland, Bertie Ahern, Nacional’s source answered: “Just because Sanader received support from several of the leaders of the European national and conservative parties does not mean that if they come to power, the leaders will not look through their fingers if they do not respect Croatia’s international responsibilities. All EU members, in regard to the cooperation of countries in the former Yugoslavia with the Hague tribunal, lead identical politics regardless of the political group in power. That means that they count on the request that all responsibilities must by strictly fulfilled and that all accused must find themselves in front of the Hague tribunal. That is not only the viewpoint of German chancellor Gerhard Schroder, but also the president of the Bavaria government Edmund Stoiber. European conservatives can give their principle support to Sanader, but HDZ and Croatia will not have any ease or a different situation in front of the Hague Tribunal”.

A reaction to the statement by the president of the Bavarian government Stoiber, saying that he is convinced that his friend Sanader will complete the democratization of the country, solve economic problems, and bring Croatia into the EU by 2008 at the latest, will come soon. On Thursday, 30 October, German chancellor Gerhard Schroder will visit Zagreb; the president of SDP will surely not miss the opportunity to answer his colleague Stoiber. It is expected that Schroder’s visit to Croatia is openly supported by Račan. Among other things, Schroder asked Račan when it would be best for him to visit so that he did not disturb the pre-election campaign.

Because there is an attempt to create a different image, the elections in Croatia will not bring about a division among members of the EU. An internal division did occur in Germany, Austria, and Italy: the right wingers and conservatives openly support Sanader and HDZ, while the social democrats in those countries do not hide their support for SDP and Račan. Parties from other countries, such as France or Spain, hold their opinions to themselves, while the British laborites gave open support to SDP at the convention that Račan attended. Even though social democrats and liberals still have the leading word in the EU, it is completely logical that SDP and the left wing coalition are enjoying their support.

As in the EU, there are no significant changes in the USA’s standpoint. Even though HDZ has spent months supporting each move by the Bush administration, Washington is not commenting on the pre-election campaign or showing public signs of thanks for HDZ’s support. This all confirms that there is a small dose of mistrust in the EU and the US towards the real intentions of HDZ’s politics. That is the consequence of party behavior until January 2000 as well as several public appearances by leaders of the right parties. Different to Croatian citizens who forget quickly, the international community remembers for a long time: they still have not forgotten that HDZ, led by Sanader, refused to support the signing of the Agreement on the stability and unity with the EU. While citizens are slowly forgetting public appearances by leading Croatian politicians, representatives of the international community are shocked with the appearances by: the vice president of HDZ, Andrije Hebranga, on television; Joško Kontić, a member of the leadership at HSLS in Parliament; an interview with the president of HSLS, Dražen Budiša in Nacional; and statements by leading politicians in HSP. In their public appearances and speeches, representatives of the international community recognize anti-European and anti-democratic sentences. One of these representatives convinced Nacional that Hebranga’s appearance on HTV uncovered the tragic nature of the position of HDZ leaders: while verbally attempting to defend Sanader’s politics, he refutes these ideas and does not accept them personally.

It was once again shown with the statement by representatives of diplomatic circles in Zagreb that the international community’s relation towards the Hague and the legal state is best shown by the real political division of individual parties and persons. While most of them, principally and verbally, support cooperation with the Hague, the second that it becomes a concrete case, for example the case with Ante Gotovina, the same answer appears: he is innocent, he is a Patriotic War hero, and he should not be responsible for his actions in front of the Tribunal in the Hague.

Due to so much insistence by the international community in relation to the Hague, this is not coincidental or the consequences of irrational spite. The EU and the United States, as well as all other democratic countries, are convinced that this relationship shows how well the country functions respects the law. By rejecting the fact that Gotovina must come to the Hague, and the support for that form of decision which is publicly enjoyed, it is clear evidence for the EU and the USA that the legal state functions only in part. They are convinced that this is stimulation for all other violations are legal, such as the decision that Serbian refugees lose their residential rights, aggravating the return of refugees and their homes, not processing crimes during privatization, and freeing mafia murderers from their responsibilities.

That is why the EU and the USA are insisting on complete cooperation with the Hague: they believe that it is a condition without which it will be impossible to secure the efficient operation of the legal state. According to the opinion by leading politicians in the EU, the leading coalition led by SDP has achieved specific results despite all objections of inconsistency and sluggishness. That is why they have deserved EU support, which HDZ does not.