At the recent traditional meeting of economists in Opatija, several hundred participants had the rare opportunity to directly follow the face off between two of the largest political opponents, the president of SDP Ivica Račan and the president of HDZ, Ivo Sanader. During the economic programs, the economists could compare the behavioral styles of the two leaders that, without a doubt, will determine the ruling style of HDZ or SDP if they win the elections. Račan followed the meeting since the very beginning; Sanader arrived several minutes prior to his appearance, explaining that he had no need to listen to Račan because he will only be Premier for a few more days. While Račan patiently listened to all speakers, as well as the president of HDZ, Sanader left the hall in the same fashion in which he entered: after he finished his speech, he hurried off in the company of his colleagues, secretary, and personal bodyguards. Račan analyzed the situation for over one hour, comparing numbers and facts while Sanader spoke of several generalized economic phrases and insulted the government’s politics using ragged political phrases. Even though Račan was more prepared than his component, Sanader appeared to be victorious and full of confidence.

Sanader and Račan’s appearance in Opatija confirmed that the pre-election campaign of SDP and HDZ presents their real image and opportunity. SDP’s campaign has until now been depersonalized, without emotion, pompous and heated. HDZ’s campaign is Tuđman’s style: euphoric, aggressive, and arrogant. Sanader has been promoted as the new leader in every way: he is the one and only star in HDZ’s campaign.

Even though the pre-election appearances have shown significant character and the style difference between the two, there is a range of similarity. Both manage their parties in similar, authoritative ways. Sanader does not hide this fact, as opposed to Račan. Both do not like members that dare to contradict their opinions. While Sanader has created a small team made up of Vladimir Šeks, Miomir Žužul and Luka Bebić, his main spin doctor, Račan, functions as a one man band because he has no close colleagues and brings about decisions alone.

Račan and Sanader have several more close points. They are both politically pragmatic, and rid themselves of large ideologies and political ideas, as well as their political mentors Tuđman and Tito. Both are attempting to position their party in the political center with a slight inclination of HDZ towards the right and SDP towards the left. Mainly because of that, Račan and Sanader’s politics are not in harmony with the commitment and expectations of most members in their party and election base. As opposed to Račan, the largest portion of SDP members are left oriented and represent socialist or social democratic ideas; they believe that their party fights for worker’s rights and the middle and lower economic classes. Račan’s deviation from left ideology is experienced as necessary tactics. Despite Sanader who wants to be seen as a modern, pro-European politician, most members of HDZ are old fashioned, right wing, conservative and often nationalistic and chauvinistic. Because of that Sanader needs to lead very careful political changes and he is sometimes forced to make very damaging compromises and actions, such as avoiding the Parliamentary signing of the Agreement on stability and unification which is the prerequisite for entrance into the EU. He even had to avoid a clear statement on cooperation with The Hague: while the party is promising that HDZ will fulfill the necessary responsibilities, they are being completely unclear on the subject in front of the national public. In foreign press, Sanader has called Serbian refugees to return to their homes, and in national press he is keeping quiet. That is the reason why he is sending his election headquarters and members a dangerous message: forget my philosophy, that is what I need to say in front of strangers.

Račan and Sanader have, in their own ways, both helped in the strengthening of democracy and stability in Croatia. Račan, after taking over the government, stopped ideological and political wars, lessened the social and political tension, lessened the ideology of society and politics, did not accept provocation or enter conflicts with the right wing, and stopped the further deepening of historical and political differences in society. This politics also brought about a range of negative effects: it did not allow a showdown with privatization crime and corruption, slowed down and even stopped the necessary reform processes, and compromised the entire political scene.

By excluding extreme nationalists and anti-democrats from HDZ and by refusing to support the center of power outside of institutions, such as various headquarters for defense during the Patriotic War, Sanader has given an important contribution to the strengthening of democracy in Croatia. Thanks to Sanader, these ridiculous and dangerous right wingers such as Ljubo Ćesić Rojs, Mirko Čondić, Ante Kovačević, and Ivić Pašalić were pushed from the political and social margins and are surviving only within the political enclave for extreme political groups.

Even though Račan and Sanader have many similarities, their party and election bases are completely different. Mainly because of that HDZ and SDP, if they are in power, will lead completely different politics. If Račan remains in power, he will continue politics dedicated to soft transition and gradual changes, avoiding social conflict. He will continue to modernize society at a slow rate, with unsatisfactory slow reform processes. He will persist on political dialogue and tolerance, and will not enter open conflicts with rigid political groups. That will not allow for strong civilization and democratic steps, but it will spare the country from difficult social conflicts. That is why everyone who fears uncertainty, social breakdowns, and traumatic changes will vote for SDP.

In its economic politics, HDZ does not offer anything radically new or importantly different to SDP. The quality of the economic program will not be any better than SDP’s: HDZ, or the other parties, has not succeeded in attracting top economic experts and scientists; the carriers of its economic programs are average, so there are no significant improvements expected. In the political plan, if HDZ wins there will be many important changes. Due to the fact that Sanader and his colleagues will deal with the excitement and passion in the party and election headquarters, it will be difficult to contain negative emotions, stop excessive employee purging, and renew ideological and political conflicts. A portion of HDZ voters expects the return of its party in government in order to receive power and money, and get revenge on those that were dismissed at the beginning of 2000. Common and necessary political changes, especially at the lower levels, will become a showdown with politically different views.

The most sensitive situation will be in the military and the police, where the current government has made serious steps forward in de-politization and professionalism. If they fulfill the announcement that they will return those that did not satisfy the criteria of expertise and education to their position, there will be a serious conflict between Banski Dvori and Pantovčak, as well as political conflict and instability in MORH and MUP.

A transfer in the government will bring most changes in the international position of Croatia. If HDZ wins, the unification with the European Union and NATO will be frozen for the moment. Brussels and European metropolises will wait for the first moves of the new government, and the new requests for handing over suspects for war crimes in The Hague. Only afterwards will they decide on what relations they will develop with Croatia. The period of interrogation and waiting will last until spring at the earliest.

Zlatko Tomčić, and several other party leaders, fears a coalition with Sanader because they are not convinced that the internal realignment in HDZ is not yet complete. They warn that the election victory could give courage to HDZ’s radicals that insist on a sharp conflict with the politics of the current leading coalition. With that, they are afraid that Sanader had a responsibility towards the radical right extreme groups that will support him in the elections. Sanader, however, is so strong that his position will not be threatened if he does not manage to form the government. The real danger is that the coalition between HDZ, HSLS, DC and HSP will widely open the door to the redevelopment of conservatism and right wing Balkan types. That would be damaging to the continuation of reforms and the modernization of society, especially taking into regard that most of the Croatia population is most likely burdened by historical issues, conservativism, nationalism, and autism as well as the feeling that the country is politically and educationally neglected.