Immediately after the election results were announced on Monday 24 November, the leader of the winning party Ivo Sanader received a dramatic warning from several sides: if HDZ enters a coalition with HSP, he is threatened by isolation and a boycott by members of the EU and USA. Even though HDZ and the right wing parties are convincingly the election winners, due to the debacle of the coalition with HSLS and DC and the nonacceptance of HSP in the international political circles, Sanader will have serous problems in forming the new government. If Đapić could be his coalition partner, Sanader would not have very many problems. Due to the fact that HSP is still internationally perceived as a nationalistic, right wing pro-fascist party, if HDZ enters a coalition with HSP, he will find himself in a conflict with the United States and the EU. HSP has changed their political terminology and orientation by getting rid of the Ustasha and extreme nationalism, but international circles estimate that he did that for pre-election reasons and that the party has not rid itself of its extreme nationalistic standpoint. Due to HSP’s open opposition for cooperation with the International Justice Courts in The Hague and his comments on how it is not necessary for Croatia to enter the EU, Đapić is still perceived in international circles as a dangerous and unacceptable politician. Furthermore, there is an opinion that he is even more nationalistic and extreme than Jorge Haider in Austria, and Jean-Marie Le Pen in France. When we look at how the members of the EU reacted when Haider’s party entered the Austrian government, it is clear that their reaction will be equally prompt and ruthless if HSP enters the government: HDZ, and Croatia, will find themselves in an isolated situation similar to that found before 3 January 2000. Even scarier: it will be the end of Croatia’s ambitions to enter the EU before the end of the decade.

While analyzing HDZ’s win, all world media agreed that the nationalistic and right wing government returned to Croatia. The most recognized American newspapers, The New York Times and Washington Post, describes HDZ as a rigid nationalistic party where 250,000 Serbians were forced to leave due to the extreme politics, and which reminds the world of corruption, the violation of human rights, and media control under HDZ’s leadership. If HSP enters a coalition after such an estimation of HDZ’s government, the fate of the coalition will be sealed by the international community. Croatia would then be found on the black list of the EU and USA.

In that case, Sanader’s coalition with HSP would destroy all his efforts at transforming HDZ into a modern, conservative European right wing party. If he enters an alliance with HSP, HDZ will bring the process of their own political redevelopment and transformation into question. That would be very damaging. HDZ is, however, accepted in a portion of the international community and national public as a democratic party which had the power to carry out a historical turnaround and break all negative connection to the past. Because the democratic world respects the will of the voting body, the first signals from the world shows that they are prepared to accept HDZ. They will do so, of course, only after they prove that they will fulfill their promises: both cooperating with The Hague Tribunal and returning property to refugees. If HDZ enters a coalition with HSP, they will fail the first test and it will be difficult to improve the negative picture in the international community.

Even though Sanader convinced voters that his party is enjoying the support of the European right parties and the USA, if he enters a coalition with HSP, he will lose the support that he has had in the past. Even an attempt at repositioning Croatia will not help Croatia; it will not help the party to turn towards the USA if they do not receive support from the EU. American diplomats warned Nacional on Sunday, 23 November that this is the wrong strategy: “HDZ and Croatia do not have a choice: either the EU or the US. Everything that the EU is requesting by Zagreb is also being requested by the United States: cooperation with The Hague and the return of refugees and their property. Washington will not comply if the new government does not support American politics.”

Because HSP has an absolutely negative relationship towards cooperation with The Hague and towards minority groups, the coalition between Sanader and Đapić in the EU and USA will be perceived equally: as a serious obstacle in Croatia’s entrance into the EU and NATO.

In that situation, Sanader does not have many choices: one of these choices is a coalition with HSS. That is the entrance for Zlatko Tomčić, one of the largest losers in the elections, into political life again. Instead of being found in the opposition like Račan, Tomčić, despite his defeat, has the opportunity to remain in power. Because Račan definitely stopped trying to form the new government on Monday 24 November, Tomčić’s hands have been untied for negotiations with Sanader. These negotiations, however, for Sanader and Tomčić will not be in the least bit pleasant or easy. Tomčić will most likely seek what Sanader will not be able to provide.

Sanader is convinced that his position, thanks to the safe majority, is very comforting and that he will be able to negotiate with HSP and HSS from his position of power. This means that he can threaten Đapić: if he does not accept his conditions, he will form an agreement with Tomčić or vice versa. That is not realistic because Tomčić and Đapić have their own expectations. Without them, Sanader will not be able to form the government. Sanader’s situation will be even more unsatisfactory because he has found himself in a paradox situation: while the world would oppose his coalition with Đapić, cooperation with SDP and HSP would not be opposed. It is estimated that Račan will neutralize Đapić’s influence and that he will keep him under control. That is why Đapić, who has already made a Copernican turnaround, could do it again: if Sanader belittles or blackmails him, he could offer his services to Račan who would then be able to form a government.

After the election results were announced, diplomatic circles began to guess what HDZ will be capable of. The most acceptable coalition for HDZ would be with HSS and HSLS-DC. It is believed that this coalition would represent the majority will of Croatian citizens, insure stability and the normal functioning of the government, as well as a relatively fast formation of the government, and most importantly continue the undisturbed process of Croatia’s entrance into the EU and NATO.

On Monday, 24 November, an ambassador for one of the member countries in the EU told Nacional how Sanader could easily gain support from the portion of the international community that is still suspicious: “They would need to take Milorad Pupovac, the new Parliamentary representative for Serbian minorities, into their government. After that, no one in the EU would have problems with HDZ. That would be an excellent signal to the international community, as well as to the citizens of Croatia, that the new HDZ has been transformed into a young, modern party.”

As Nacional discovered, Sanader listened to the western diplomats. On Monday he spoke with several of the new Parliamentary minority group representatives. Even though Sanader’s situation is not nearly as easy as it appears after the announcement of the election results, it would be wrong to underestimate him. He has shown that he has very decisively and capably survived many difficult and complicated situations and that he will find solutions that will not damage Croatia or HDZ.

In political circles in Zagreb on Monday, 24 November, information got out that the president of HDZ Ivo Sanader met with a group of Generals that President Stjepan Mesić sent into retirement due to unacceptable right wing agitation. That news should prove the type of political chaos that Croatia will face once Sanader takes over power. The truth is, however, very different. It is true that the retired Generals attempted to meet with Sanader and the leaders of HDZ, but Sanader refused the possibility of a meeting. Furthermore, Nacional discovered from sources near the top of HDZ that Sanader gave a very negative comment to the announcement by Andrije Hebranga that HDZ will return a portion of the retired Generals to their former positions. HDZ immediately refuted that they stand behind Hebranga’s announcement. It is clear to Sanader, however, that if he begins a difficult conflict with President Mesić, the retired Generals might not return to active duty. That is why it is not odd that Sanader announced that his government would do a better job of cooperating with President Mesić than Račan’s did. We do not need to doubt that: Sanader knows that the perception of his party in foreign countries, as well as feelings held by a portion of Croatia’s citizens, is still negative. If he would enter any form of conflict with President Mesić, it would discredit him in the eyes of the United States and the EU where Mesić is their pet. That is why Sanader must be careful not to lessen his relations with President Mesić, who also is interested in having better relations with the coalition that will be formed by Sanader.