Last week, in his interview for the weekly magazine Feral Tribune, Croatian President Stipe Mesić undoubtedly entered into an open conflict with Premier Ivo Sanader and HDZ. The distrust between the two men, kept quiet until now, erupted at the celebration of Croatia’s candidacy to the European Union, when the HDZ spokesmen stated that “Premier Sanader is accompanied by President Mesić”. In this interview, President Mesić admitted that this offended him, and even more so since the Premier did not see fit to apologize for the gaff later. Mesić also openly attacked Jadranka Kosor, the most likely HDZ candidate to contest Mesić at the upcoming presidential elections. He accused her of illegally receiving a flat from former Defense Minister Gojko Šušak and the Defense Ministry. And that is the opposition platform, which is based on a conflict with the ruling party HDZ. Mesić perhaps does not want to be in conflict with HDZ, but there is truly no other way out of the situation that he himself is partially to blame for. He alone is not strong enough to win as a candidate who does not need the backing of a strong party. Only months ago, he could have entered into the running completely on his own, and won a second mandate without any assistance. Today, however, due to unnecessary media appearances and public self-justification over things for which he is not to blame, he has become vulnerable, and will thus have to make twice the effort in order to win another mandate, and he needs to put together a strong team in his campaign staff. What is most important, though, is his relationship with the parties of the opposition, which hold him in a clench. Primarily, that means SDP’s Ivica Račan, who for the first time in his career reacted promptly and cleverly took advantage of an opportunity. The SDP president will charge a high price for their support of Mesić, who is expecting a difficult battle against the HDZ candidate, and that best suites the opposition who will attack HDZs government over Mesić. This could also be a crucial moment for putting together the new Croatian political mosaic for the next five to seven years.

If Mesić does not promise to strongly oppose HDZ, then Račan and HSSer Zlatko Tomčić could simply and effectively make his political career a nightmare. If Mesić goes back on their plan, then these two party presidents will send their own candidates into the running. Of course, those candidates will in no way be Račan or Tomčić, as losing would mean the end of their political careers. However, there are many in SDP for whom an election loss would not mean overall political failure and instead would only pull great political advantage out of the whole situation.

Zagreb political circles are increasingly mentioning Željka Antunović. She was never a member of the Communist Party, she goes to church, she is a socialist with a Christian image, just what Croatians love. No one has any illusions that she could beat Mesić, but she could certainly take away a good portion of the vote, thus forcing him into a second round. The reserve option, if Željka Antunović fails to obtain the required support, is HSSer Ante Šimonić. If Račan does not succeed in charging Mesić for his support in the first round, then he certainly will in the second. For Željka Antunović, who only ten days ago attacked Sanader and HDZ like a typhoon, twenty percent of the vote in the presidential elections would solidify her position in SDP thus making her Račan’s successor at the head of that party. In such a combination, it is assessed that Mesić would win 35% and the HDZ candidate 25% of the vote. In order to win in the second round, Mesić will have to, whether he wants to or not, make a deal to win the support of the opposition. HNS’s Vesna Pusić will give full support to Mesić, however, that is not enough for a win. It seems as though Mesić has decided to accept the deal with the opposition in the first round of the elections, and has begun to distance himself from HDZ. That was particularly evident at the opening of the Dubrovnik Summer Festival, where Mesić and Sanader were very distanced and reserved towards one another.

It seems completely unrealistic that HDZ and Sanader could support Mesić at the elections. It is also unrealistic that Sanader himself will run for president, as he is interested only in the Chancellor’s system, which politically is completely legitimate. He does not want the president meddling in foreign affairs, the secret service and the military which, according to his current authority, Mesić can and does do often. In fact, his authority is much greater than that of the Austrian or German presidents. Recently, the now deceased Austrian president Thomas Klestil entered into a conflict with Chancellor Wolfgang Schussel when he tried to create greater authority for himself in the Constitution. HDZ will certainly have its own candidate. Any other solution would be completely inappropriate for the strongest Croatian party. The only question is when and whom to put in the race, as Sanader’s vanity will not permit anyone else from the party to already now take the limelight. A win or loss by the HDZ candidate will significantly impact the stability of the HDZ government. Therefore, these elections, which at first appeared to not be so important, are quickly becoming very significant.

Of course, no one has a chance against Mesić, as regardless of his mistakes and hostile attitude towards a portion of the media, it is difficult to believe that any HDZ candidate can beat him. In the past five years, Mesić has done much for the democratization of the Southeast European region, and he gave the post-Tudjman Croatia a humane image. Sanader immediately realized that Mesić could help him in the beginning of his rule to stabilize the government, and he took advantage of that maximally. Sanader would prefer to respect what Mesić did for him and entering into a conflict does not suit him at al. He will instead try to push everyone around him into conflict with Mesić, for he knows that if HDZ loses the elections, he will be forced to co-exist with Mesić. And that will not be easy for him if he burns all the bridges between them in the next six months.

In the past five years in Croatia, not a single new respectable politician has surfaced. Several political clowns will certainly take part in the elections, lead of course by Slaven Letica, who sees this campaign as a new opportunity for some free advertising. Djapić will likely think twice about giving his party’s support to Letica, as he is also the greatest threat to breaking his party apart.

Nacional has also learned that Ivić Pašalić will also join the running for presidential office. Pašalić, the evil ghost of the Tudjman years, was most responsible for the win by Račan’s coalition at the 3 January 2000 elections. The “doctor” has nothing to lose: after his partner in crime Miroslav Kutle ended up in jail, the judicial clench will begin to again close in on his, and on the other signatories of the many partnership contracts. Considering that he is already politically dead, this will be an opportunity for him to re-enter into the media spotlight and try to buy some political importance, shifting temporarily from the crime sphere into the political sphere. Every percentage point won in the elections will be a very big deal to him. And it will give him the opportunity to publicly attack both Mesić and Sanader. And while the election campaign is on, the justice system will not touch him. If nothing else, this is reason enough to put off this period which will certainly be a very ugly one for him.