“Can’t you see that Sanader is playing everyone! In the end, he will be the one to decide who the presidential candidate is, and he is the only one in HDZ to know what is going on. He is not in the least concerned about the situation revolving the HDZ candidate, and if he hasn’t selected someone yet, then he has likely assessed that it is best for himself and HDZ to not run at all. In terms of cohabitation, there is no better man for him than Stipe Mesić. With that, he will easily defend his decision before the public and the EU on why HDZ did not run their candidate. The explanation for him is simple: it is not good for the democratic process for one party to rule in the parliament and to have its member as President of the Republic. This is Sanader’s perfect alibi on why not to run. This move shows Sanader as being brave and stately, and he would not in the least hurt his party. On the contrary, this would show him as a man above the squabbling and his party as ultimately democratic. He would win many points abroad.” This was the comment made last week for Nacional by a politician very close to Ivo Sanader. It will soon be seen just how accurate these claims are, as the government will have one week to call the presidential elections for Sunday, 19 December 2004. Judging by Sanader’s conduct, this opinion stated by his close associate could be right on the mark.

It is truly unusual that no one within HDZ knows whether or not they will become the presidential candidate. At least the potential candidate should be informed, in order mentally prepare him or herself and their families for such a big change. Furthermore, by not announcing the candidate’s name, Sanader has draconically shortened the time to promote the potential candidate, for as soon as he makes such an announcement, he would receive huge media attention, free of charge. Of course, both positive and negative, making this a double edged sword. Sanader, however, is too serious a politician to allow himself to improvise at the last moment. Therefore, it sounds logical that he is not announcing the candidate because he has decided that HDZ will not run, allowing Mesić to peacefully win his second mandate. And here Sanader’s calculations are clear. Any kind of an election war with Mesić who, from today’s perspective, is the unsurpassable favorite in these elections, would only bring Sanader a massive headache in the post-election period. Mesić, who is no less vengeful than Sanader, would certainly interpret some of Sanader’s moves as a personal assault against him, and would be sure to make the remainder of his mandate as premier bitter. And there is no need for that. At least as seen by their practice to date.

Mesić would be the ideal president for Sanader, who just took office at the beginning of this year. The majority of western European diplomats feared HDZ’s return to power. Mesić helped a great deal to improve Sanader’s image at the beginning of his mandate, he supported him and never harshly criticized him. He allowed Sanader to make personnel changes in the secret service, diplomacy and the defense sector, as he wished. He asked no questions, though he could have caused problems at every step, thereby publicly exhausting him and throwing him off track. At Sanader’s request he also sacrificed two men who were perhaps most important to him – Franjo Turek and Željko Bagić, through which he had control over all the processes in Croatia and who watched his back from hostile attacks. Sanader shuffled around the diplomats, retired military personnel and made changes in the Foreign Ministry. Mesić did not say a word, which Račan and other members of the opposition harshly criticized. And what would happen now if Sanader were to turn his back on Mesić and offer his own candidate at the presidential elections?

It is interesting to note that not even Sanader’s closest associates share the same opinion on whether or not HDZ should run with its candidate in the presidential elections. Judging by their public comments, Vladimir Šeks believes that HDZ does not need to run. As Mesić’s former best friend, Šeks knows that losing the battle with Mesić would be catastrophic for the party and its leadership. Mesić would certainly not hesitate to condescend, mock or humiliate them until the end of his second term. On the other hand, Luka Bebić, Sanader’s second closest associate has announced that HDZ will run. Of course, he made this statement prior to the local election debacle in Metković, where Stipe Gabrić Jambo blew HDZ away. Inasmuch, Bebić made a huge mistake when he wrongly assessed the situation and sent Sanader to speak at the HDZ rally in Metković only two days before the elections. These elections became Sanader’s fiasco. Had he not personally appeared at the insistence of Luka Bebić, for whom Metković is a ‘base’, then this defeat would not have been damaging to him, for these elections, like those in Požega, were held under special circumstances which cannot be found in other towns. These two towns were dominated for a long time by one leader, both of whom were in conflict with HDZ. Had the local HDZers thought twice, they would not have permitted Sanader to personally become involved in the elections. The situation is similar with the presidential elections. The one to push Sanader into an open conflict with Mesić will be making the same mistake as in Metković and Požega. This is also a specific situation, as according to HDZ’s most recent opinion polls, Mesić has been rated more popular than Sanader and all the other HDZers. Mesić holds 49.7%, Sanader 19.3% and Jadranka Kosor is third with 9.1%. With these kinds of ratings, Sanader would truly have to be suicidal to launch a battle against Mesić. However, that does not necessarily mean that he will not select a HDZ candidate, if it means keeping peace in the party. And then he has to be very careful in selecting the right person.

As Nacional has learned from sources close to Mesić, the president would not look equally upon individual HDZ candidates, particularly concerning their relationship with Sanader. Though that may appear strange, in top political circles, many political issues are viewed through the prism of private relationships.

Mesić would not be angry in the least at Sanader if Sanader decided to run with Andrija Hebrang. Mesić considers that Hebrang is not Sanader’s player, but is more an ‘escapee’ from Pasalić’s onto Sanader’s team. As such, he can never be too close to Sanader’s heart like ‘Suzana’, as Mesić is known to call government vice-president Jadranka Kosor. He considers her to be a true player on Sanader’s team, and her candidacy would be considered a direct attack by Sanader, though her chances of beating Mesić are minimal. And after this, cohabitation between the President and Sanader would be very difficult.

Considering that Sanader is a pragmatic politicians, he has likely drawn similar conclusions. In deciding to not enter into a conflict with Mesić, whom he considers to be unbeatable in these elections, he truly has no dilemma concerning the presidential elections. For that reason he can play leisurely, as one of his closest friends commented for Nacional last week.

Sanader and Mesić have become close on yet another issue. Mesić, believing that information he received last summer, concluded that it will be difficult to find Ante Gotovina and that the best, fastest and most painless way to resolve his status is through direct discussions with the Hague Tribunal. This initiative, which was a reality of the moment, has been killed off by the media. And today, the President believes that the problem can only be resolved by the ICTY and Gotovina in direct contact. It would appear that what Mesić concluded about the Gotovina case last summer, Sanader has only now learned.

This is undoubtedly the neuralgic point of Sanader’s rule. Gotovina was one of the cults which helped bring HDZ back to power. Certain HDZ leaders promised in the election campaign that they would call a referendum on whether Gotovina should go to the Hague or not. However, it is one thing to talk nonsense while in opposition, and another while in office. Under pressures from Europe and the need to enter into the EU, HDZ was quick to change their tune and permit repression towards all those thought to have connections with the fugitive general. The Avis was received, candidacy granted, date of negotiations more or less set and the “witch hunt” under pressures by the Hague and London continues, which threats that negotiations with the EU could be cut off at any time because of the Gotovina case. In that period, in order to prove that the new government was loyal to cooperation with the ICTY, in order to prove that the government was not hiding anything regarding the fugitive general, the secret service even permitted their English counterparts to saunter around Croatia and wiretap Croatian citizens. Allegedly, the domestic secret service did this behind Sanader’s back, as the pressure from abroad was mounting. Raids, wiretapping, monitoring, tracking, freezing bank accounts, banning entry into the EU, denying visas – nothing helped to resolve the “Gotovina case”.

The results have been negative – no trace of Gotovina or his partners. And the pressure from the UK is increasing, with new threats to postpone the negotiations for entry into the EU. In other words, Sanader has been blackmailed and pushed into a corner he cannot back out of, just as no government before him has been able to push their way out. The only person to remain calm is Mesić, who received good information last year and who concluded that the Gotovina issue can only be resolved peacefully: through direct contact between Gotovina and the ICTY, and his return to Croatia to meet with the ICTY investigators. Sanader has done all he could to find Gotovina or some trace leading to him, though he has lost a great deal of his voting body in the process. On the other hand, he continues to be blackmailed with the EU negotiations. In such a situation, he should ask himself the logical question: has all this effort been worth it, when nothing has been resolved and he will lose the next elections? As Nacional has learned, Zadar and the surrounding areas, an area where HDZ received 11 representative spots in the parliament, more than all the other election districts, is planning a great shift from HDZ to HSP due to the conduct of the government in the Gotovina case. In order to save his position and credibility among his membership, Sanader will have to immediately change his policies, as it is now perfectly clear that Gotovina cannot be found. He will need to save his voting body, by attempting to resolve the Gotovina case quietly, without regression. The only other way out is for Gotovina to be arrested in some backwoods part of the globe.

With this kind of thinking, Sanader can most help the ICTY and Gotovina, as well as himself and his party. The only question remaining is whether Sanader still has credibility in his party and voting body, or whether he has gone one step too far, which could cost him greatly. In that situation, he has an ally in Mesić, who proposed such a solution 15 months ago, and who realized that this is the only way to satisfy all parties, and to put justice first. In order to achieve this, Sanader needs several allies. Considering that he spent many years in diplomacy, that should be no problem, neither for him nor for Žužul.