“The starting date for negotiations for Croatia’s accession to the European Union will not be dependent upon the arrest and extradition of the fugitive General Ante Gotovina to the Hague. All well-wishers in the diplomatic core know that Gotovina is not in Croatia. The Croatian government is expected to invest maximal efforts to bring the general before the Hague Tribunal, and the Croatian government should play an active role here. Showing an initiative in that direction will be sufficient for the beginning of negotiations, and we are certain that Carla Del Ponte will not give a negative report before the UN Security Council on Croatia’s cooperation with the Hague Tribunal. Therefore, Sanader can expect to receive a negotiation start date in early spring of 2005. The actual date of accession of Croatia into the EU will primarily depend on the rate of harmonization of Croatian laws with the EU laws. Whether this will be 2007 or 2009 will depend only on how fast the negotiations can be completed. It is perhaps better for Croatia to not enter into the EU with Romania and Bulgaria in 2007, but instead to truly be a role model and leader for all the countries of southeast Europe which will follow. Here, Croatia should stand out as the regional leader, which would mean a great deal to the country, both politically and economically.” This was the comment made for Nacional last week by a western European diplomat.

His opinion has in fact only confirmed the comments made by Luxemburg Premier Jean-Claude Juncker in his interview for HTV on Sunday, 24 October. “The arrest of Gotovina is not a condition for the beginning of accession negotiations, however, a serious readiness to hand him over is. Croatia will have to ensure that its efforts to extradite Gotovina to the Hague are serious. It is up to Croatia to fulfill this obligation, as some of our Member States are strongly insisting upon it.”

In light of these comments, it is clear that no one from Europe is critical of Ivo Sanader’s comments last week that he is convinced of the general’s innocence, but that he will have to prove his innocence before the Hague Tribunal. No one from Europe has attacked Sanader for those remarks, however, he was attacked by the “serious’ political analysts, who virtually proclaimed those remarks as heretic and terribly damaging for Croatia on its path to the EU.

With that comment, Sanader showed that he is firmly holding the situation under control, both in his party and in the government, and that he has a clear vision where and down which path he wants to lead Croatia during his mandate as premier. He has shown courage and political maturity, thereby refuting his critics who claim that Sanader only functions well when he “gets a good hand” and that he does not come out a winner in defensive situations.

Sanader also showed his political maturity and power in the party when he decided to make Jadranka Kosor the HDZ presidential candidate. Till that point, few believed that he would so openly oppose Andrija Hebrang, who together with his like-thinkers in HDZ, a rigid and very influential nationalist core, was convinced he would receive the candidacy. Sanader’s final decision on the candidate was not even known to Sanader’s closest associates in the party and the government until the very beginning of the meeting of the party presidency. With ten days distance, Jadranka Kosor turned out to be Sanader’s logical choice, the continuation of his political transformation of HDZ into a pro-European party which is increasingly moving from the right to the centre. Sanader’s intent is perfectly clear. He wants to make HDZ a long-term and stable party on the Croatian political scene, which will always have a certain 35-40% at elections and which will always be able to select parties with which it will rule. This vision, according to Sanader’s assessments, can only be achieved with a centrist policy, which is advocated by the widest layers of society. And Jadranka Kosor fits in ideally into that kind of an image.

Had he selected Hebrang, Sanader would have taken a step away from his vision of continued development in the party, and that he is not completely clear on what his party is and where it should be led. By choosing Hebrang, he would have shown that he is not in control of the processes within the party and that he is afraid of the noise from its right wing, where they have not yet realized that the time of “absolutism” under Franjo Tudjman and his rhetoric and conduct are long past. By choosing Hebrang, who is Tudjman’s political clone, that would be going back in time.

In the last issue of Nacional, there was an incorrect statement that a group of about twenty Hebrang supporters, among them Dr. Ivan Bagarić, left the room after Sanader announced that Jadranka Kosor would be the HDZ presidential candidate. In the rush to hit the presses, we incorrectly interpreted certain information. The truth is that following the announcement of Kosor’s candidacy, Bagarić showed a little dissatisfaction, but no one, not even Andrija Hebrang dared to protest Sanader’s decision. Hebrang accepted this fate and pulled his tail between his legs, and he expressed his open support of his party colleague Jadranka Kosor. All with a sour smile on his face. However, it is Hebrang who should be happiest about Sanader’s decision. With that, Sanader extended Hebrang’s political life, which would be impossible following an election debacle with Mesić. His massive ego would be subject to public blows and after his defeat he would completely disappear from the political scene. He would also have lost his standing with the like-thinkers within the party, for whom he is the unofficial leader. Not to mention the damage he would have brought on the party. His right-wing stance and his calls for the values of the Patriotic War due to his mannerisms would be interpreted in Europe as a return to the old HDZ. However, what Hebrang was intending to say and upon what he was intending to build his way to Pantovčak in the election campaign, Sanader mustered up the courage to say publicly last week.

The premier is the first Croatian politician in power to say loud and clear what he thinks of the guilt of Ante Gotovina. “I am certain that Ante Gotovina is innocent and that he had to defend his innocence before the Hague Tribunal,” is the sentence that neither Račan nor Mesić would never have dared to utter openly. Sanader was harshly criticized in certain media for that statement. Some criticized him because this is something that the European bureaucrats do not like to hear and this could have potential repercussions on Croatia’s path to the EU. Others criticized him saying that he does not know Anglo-Saxon law, by which the prosecutor must prove the guilt of the accused and not that the accused must prove his innocence.

This statement on Gotovina’s innocence, after the indictment against him was expanded in the spring of this year and he was also accused of participation in a “criminal action”, should have been publicly stated. What kind of a man would Sanader be if he agreed to become the leader of a country which arose on the basis of a “criminal action”. That would mean that this is a criminal state. In 1995, Sanader was in the top ranks of government and therefore he, like all the other politicians in government at the time, and who were close to Tudjman, should be held accountable for that “criminal action”. Ante Gotovina, Ivan Čermak and Mladen Markač, accused for these acts, are only the military branch of political decisions. Should Sanader keep quiet and nod his head at the indictment which burdens not only Gotovina and the other generals, but also seriously accuses the state he leads? For him, just the opposite would be flippant – to not give a statement saying that Gotovina is innocent. He also stated that Gotovina will have to prove this before the court. In this politicized situation, it is all the same whether or not the prosecution will have to prove Gotovina’s guilt or he will have to prove his innocence. For Sanader and his government, and therefore for the large number of voters who gave them their support, it is important that finally someone from the very top ranks of government says loud and clear what they think of the Hague indictments and Ante Gotovina’s guilt or innocence. The conscience of the nation received much from Sanader’s move, regardless of what the “serious political analysts” and their sources among “western diplomats in Zagreb” think.

Sanader clearly stated that this entire situation needs to be resolved in the Hague, and not for a moment did he damage the institution of the Hague Tribunal. All he did, as a witness of time, is give his assessment of the ICTY indictment.

With his comments on Gotovina’s innocence, Sanader sealed shut the mouths of all the radicals in HDZ who were potentially planning to attack him after the door was closed on Hebrang’s candidacy. On the other hand, in an attempt of damage control before the liberal public and Europe, he made a great move in announcing that the return of Serbian property to the owners would be a priority task of his government. This is a clear sign to Europe that Sanader truly intends to resolve what many believe is Croatia’s greatest problem – refugees. This problem, unlike the problem with Gotovina, is discussed little, and in the opinion of the truly serious political analysts, this is greatest problem Sanader’s government is facing alongside economic issues. The government is powerless in resolving the Gotovina issue, as the general had not stepped foot on Croatian soil since the first day he disappeared.

As Nacional has learned from sources close to the Serbian government and Premier Vojislav Kostunica, at last week’s meeting in Solun and in Bukarest the following day, Croatia truly won big points in the eyes of its neighbours. The very direct and open discussion between Sanader and Žužul and the Serbian side convinced Kostunica that the Croatian side is truly sincere in wanting to resolve outstanding issues with its neighbours. “We are not used to seeing the Croats speak so openly. Your prior government and our prior government were just going round in circles. Zagreb has not made a single concrete move, which perhaps is ‘thanks’ to the former government in Belgrade whom no one trusted, and likely Račan’s government also did not trust them. However, we believe that the level of talks could have been much higher. After the Solun meeting and Sanader’s announced visit to Belgrade, I believe that our relations will be normalized and that we will finally be able to communicate and work normally. Judging by Sanader’s conduct at Solun, we are sure of this.” This was the comment made for Nacional by one of the ministers in Kostunica’s government, only two days after the Solun meeting.

In the next two months, Sanader will most have to watch out that he does not step on too many toes in the presidential campaign. Miomir Žužul is in the same position, as he is directly dependent upon Stipe Mesić, who is co-creator of foreign policy and without whose approval he cannot make a single significant personnel, let along foreign policy move. As Nacional has learned from sources close to the top ranks in HDZ, the party will offer maximal staffing, organizational and financial support to Jadranka Kosor, however, her two main operatives, one of whom ended up in the hospital Sunday due to an ulcer, will not be overly in the public eye. As the situation stands now, Mesić is a sure win, and the only way he can lose is through some sort of massive scandal, and therefore any great public appearances by Sanader and Žužul in Kosor’s campaign, which is likely to not be squeaky clean as campaigns usually are not, would be absolutely counter-productive in their relations with Stipe Mesić later on. And that kind of an enemy is what they don’t need. Without co-habitation, they have absolutely no chance of staying in power at the next parliamentary elections. At stake also are the local elections, to be held in six months tims. Both Sanader and Žužul are too smart to get into that kind of an adventure. Therefore, Jadranka Kosor will have only herself to trust, and no one else. The sooner she realizes this, the easier it will be for her.