Already this spring, the Republic of Croatia will agree to an arrangement in the military operation to stabilize Iraq under the leadership of the NATO Alliance, and in the fall of 2005, preparations will begin for several dozen soldiers of the 1st Guard Brigade, the ‘Tigers’, considering that the rotations of the Croatia military police forces are somewhat exhausted in the personnel sense, and so the military leadership is considering sending new military forces.

The most painless option appears to be the donation of surplus military equipment and arms, in particular tanks, armed transporters and artillery, as Croatia is currently facing paying for its destruction. Hungary has already sent 70 T-72 tanks as aid to the Iraqi military, while Slovenia is preparing to send 5 million euro in military equipment and giving financial aid of 100 thousand euro in the NATO fund for Iraq.Last week’s renewal of the transatlantic alliance between the US and EU and the upcoming confirmation of successful talks between US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld with European allies, Croatia has not been left with much choice in the matter. This was also confirmed for Nacional by diplomatic sources last week. The request for Croatia to up its involvement in the stabilization mission in Iraq can no longer be considered in Croatia as US dictatorship, since as of last week all NATO member states, including France and Germany gave their support to NATO’s mission to train Iraqi military and police forces. With that, ten countries immediately agreed to active participation in this program, and so now Croatia’s involvement in Iraq is inevitable. Already in March, Croatia, as a partner nation, will receive an official request from NATO on Croatia’s possibilities to assist the NATO missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Republic of Croatia can no longer remain on the sidelines and be a mere observer of the renewal of the alliance, as Croatia has declared entry into NATO to be one of its top strategic goals. However, this time only declaratively wanting membership will not be enough, but they will have to offer concrete military participation in the Iraq and Afghanistan missions.

There are several possibilities, however it is very important is the fact that not a single option foresees the possibility of not sending Croatian soldiers to Iraq, which is a frequent topic of sharp polemics in Croatian political life, and a very sensitive issue among the Croatian public. In terms of the Iraq mission, Croatia has three possibilities. The first is that the Croatian instructors train Iraqi military or police forces in Iraq or outside the country. Second, Croatia could donate surplus arms and military equipment to the Iraqi military and third, Croatia could give financial assistance in a special NATO fund.

The most painless option appears to be the donation of surplus military equipment and arms, in particular tanks, armed transporters and artillery, as Croatia is currently facing paying for its destruction. Hungary has already sent 70 T-72 tanks as aid to the Iraqi military, while Slovenia is preparing to send 5 million euro in military equipment and giving financial aid of 100 thousand euro in the NATO fund for Iraq.

However, the problem is that the General Staff has not made a list of surplus arms in the last decade, so this option is completely uncertain. However, the most acceptable and increasingly realistic option remains that the Croatian police and military instructors train the members of the Iraqi security forces somewhere outside Iraq. Such a decision would certainly be welcomed in Brussels, and would be useful for Croatia, as Croatia is expecting to receive an invitation for full membership in NATO next year.

With the already present military police unit in Kabul and several Croatian civil experts in Feyzabad, a member of one of 19 reconstruction teams (PRTs) distributed throughout Afghanistan, serious consideration has been given to sending a portion of the peace operations company of the Tigers Guard Brigade, which has been fully trained for peacekeeping missions. Considering that increasing funds are being spent on the human resources of the contingent of the Croatian military police, there is the danger that the same soldiers will again be sent to Afghanistan next year, after already spending an enduring six months in Kabul. This would only further exhaust those soldiers psychologically and physically, for a six month stay with no vacation is considered excessive for standards of peacekeeping missions of that type. Such soldiers are inclined to routine, they accept tasks half-heartedly, excessive confidence is expressed and finally, this can all have fatal consequences on the security of the mission and their lives.

In order to avoid this, serious consideration is being given to stepwise replacement of the military police contingent with parts of the 1st Guard Brigade, or rather, with fresh forces already trained for conducting all tasks currently carried out by the Croatian military police. However, prior to this, it is necessary to organize and set up the financial arrangement of such an operation.

Nacional’s source claims that at this time, financing an additional military contingent would not be possible without a partnership with another country, or if the state administration orders the Finance Ministry to earmark additional funds in the amount of several tens of millions of kuna. The state administration will have to decide whether financing an addition contingent will bring equal political impacts of the entire action, referring primarily to a speedy entry into the NATO Pact. Unlike the Iraq mission under NATO, which is still in its infancy, the Afghanistan peacekeeping mission ISAF has reached a critical point where it is necessary to send addition NATO soldiers and expand the mission to a large part of the country in order for the parliamentary elections to be held and to disable to spread of the influence of local war lords, banks and drug dealers into the central state bodies in Kabul. The current decision by the NATO Pact is to go ahead with the reconstruction of civil life by sending and organizing reconstruction teams in all the western Afghanistan provinces, while the decision to strengthen the military forces will have to wait for the next meeting of NATO leaders. Italy, Spain and Lithuania last week immediately promised to make additional forces available for the Afghanistan peacekeeping missions.

The success of NATO’s mission in Afghanistan would demonstrate the ability of the alliance to transform this state, subjected to war for centuries and various forms of fanaticism and terrorism, into a stable nation which can prosper economically and politically. On the other hand, a NATO failure in Afghanistan would be a harsh blow to the credibility of the Alliance and prove that NATO is not capable of running operations outside the euroatlantic region.

Croatia no longer has a right to any concessions, as its military reforms have been at a standstill for one year already. The strategic overview of defense has still not been passed, high ranking officers beginning to resemble politicians with their statements and decisions, and for sometime the military administration has been getting out of civil control, and the military is facing the threat of strikes of civil employees working within the armed forces. The recent NATO Summit also certainly presented a blow to the Croatian military and political establishment, who until yesterday were counting on Croatia’s membership in the Alliance and announcing its demise, and as such consciously obstructing the need for defense reforms. Such a completely incorrect assessment could already in March cost Croatia, when a high ranking NATO delegation will visit the country to assess the current course of reforms. In order to amortize this, the Croatian state leadership will prior to this visit have to openly affirm its goal of NATO membership, and then office concrete aid to the allies. The Croatian diplomats hope that consistency in this task, a concrete contribution to the operations and the reaffirmation of the political goal of entering NATO will bring Croatia a speedier entry into that alliance.