The idea of Jurcic as the premier candidate is three years old: at a meeting in early 2004, an agreement was made to reorganise the party and win back powerLjubo Jurcic will be SDP’s candidate for Premier. Definitive confirmation that SDP will most likely receive a new candidate arrived on Tuesday 6 March at the presentation of SDP’s economic programme, drafted by Jurcic, professor at the Faculty of Economics in Zagreb and former Economy minister in the coalition government. As such, Jurcic confirmed his position as Racan’s favourite for premier, marking a finalization of the agreement between the two politicians in the first half of 2004.

Various sources within SDP have confirmed for Nacional that Jurcic is Racan’s top choice, as Racan launched Jurcic into the top ranks of politics while Racan was premier. After the election defeat in 2003, the two men began to work closely together and outline a strategy to return to power, including appointing Ljubo Jurcic as the candidate for premier for the leading opposition party. Now that Racan is expected to return to Zagreb and continue his medical treatment, such an announcement can be expected by no later than September. In such an outcome, Racan will continue to run SDP and politically protect the future mandate holder, while Jurcic will lead the social democrats in their attempt to win back power.

Former Economy Minister will then make another important move, expected of him since 2002 when he entered into politics – he will officially join the social democratic party.

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Plans for his candidacy are three years in the making. The objective of their early 2004 meeting was to work out a strategy to reorganise the party and return to power. They reached an agreement by which Racan promised to sort out the political situation in the part and bring in new people, while Jurcic would take on creation of a strategy to win back votes. The SDP president partially kept his promise, as a part of the old officials were eliminate, while of the new people, only Zoran Milanovic, Rajko Ostojic, Zvonimir Mrsic and Igor Dragovan have established themselves within the party.

In summer 2006, resistance started to appear and the majority of criticisms boiled down to the thesis that Jurcic is not formally an SDP member and, as a non-partisan person, cannot have the support of the SDP membership. Jurcic rejected such criticisms. In informal discussions, he claims that unlike other SDPers, he does not depend on politics for a living and he cooperates with the party because he supports the same values. He is well aware that the leadership of SDP has been a tight circle for the past 15 years, and does not let in any new members. It was Milanovic who felt this on his own skin recently, after advancing quickly and obtaining a good public rating, while gaining many opponents within the party.

Ljubo Jurcic did not want to participate in the battle for a position in SDP, but instead continued closely working with Racan to coordinate a strategy for the party. At one point, he even threatened to back away from the party. That was last year when the Convention on Worker’s Rights was organised in Zagreb’s Bundek Park. Considering that SDP has been running from leftist ideologies for years, the proposed conclusion that was supposed to be sent out to the Croatian workers was that “there are no longer any secure jobs”. When he noticed that, Jurcic threatened that he would not consent to such a stance, and the statement was thrown out.

At their January meeting, Ivica Racan explained to Ljubo Jurcic that he sees his future role as a coach, and not a playerIn mid January, about a week before Racan’s tumour was revealed, Racan and Jurcic held another long meeting. At the meeting, Racan told Jurcic that he no longer sees himself in the role of the star player, but instead in a coaching role. In other words, he confirmed their agreement from 2004 when he announced that he would reorganise and prepare the SDP leadership and activists to accept Jurcic as the premier candidate. Then a large turnabout occurred when Racan learned he was suffering from a serious disease. In any case, Jurcic accepted Racan’s proposal, as he is certain that he can lead SDP to election victory as well as improve Croatia’s economic growth in the next two years, thereby improving the standard of living for the majority of Croatian citizens.

After winning the elections, Ljubo Jurcic would have three key associates in his government: Slavko Linic, Neven Mimica and Antun Vujic. He greatly respects all three men, and Linic would be appointed Finance Minister to secure money for the great reforms the SDP government plans to implement. Mimica would be in charge of that task and would be entrusted with reforming the entire state administration and ensuring that the Government agencies, funds and institutions work towards stimulating economic growth. Vujic’s tasks would include improving the science and education sectors, whereby raising the level of schooling aimed at creating first-rate experts that will be capable of running Croatian companies in a globalized environment.

More than ten months ago, Jurcic insisted that SDP stop its daily attacks against HDZ and instead start a campaign to affirm its own goals. In September 2006, the party leadership agreed to such a decision, but soon afterwards, some officials continued with the old rhetoric. Jurcic proposed that Ivica Racan convince Zeljka Antunovic that her statements were in fact counterproductive, which the SDP president did. However, with that Jurcic obtained Zeljka Antunovic as a strong rival, and the fact that Racan sees him as the candidate for premier only further deepened the existing rifts within the party.

The former Economy Minister is convinced that HDZ is doing a poor job in running the country, however, he is also against the constant conflicts that SDP is causing with the ruling party. In Jurcic’s opinion, the only competent ministers in Sanader’s government are Petar Cobankovic and Bozidar Kalmeta. However, because of Kalmeta, Jurcic again clashed with the majority position within SDP, when the party attacked the government over changes in the leadership of Croatian Railways. Jurcic then sought out a milder approach and attempts to find a consensus with the government in order to reach an agreement to save the state railway. However, in both SDP and HDZ, those opposed to a compromise won out.

Unless complications should arise, Ivica Racan is expected to return home from Munich this week. Though he is recovering from two complex operations and is yet to start taking the drug Sutent, Racan had several long telephone conversations with important party members in recent days, and is well acquainted with the situation within SDP. According to his physicians, his medical condition is quite well, though this will only be truly known in two to three months, following several rounds of treatment. Doctors doubt that Racan, even if he recovers fully, will be capable of handling the stressful 14-hour days as premier. Therefore, it is more and more likely that Ljubo Jurcic will be promoted as the party’s candidate by early September.

Racan will take on the task of personnel management within SDP and making up the ballot lists, and there is no doubt that he will continue to be the main strategist in the election campaign. Racan has assigned those loyal to him in all the important SDP functions, and therefore it is unlikely that anyone among them will rebel against Jurcic’s candidacy. Not even Bandic, though some would claim that Bandic is doing all he can to discretely stop this from taking place. This is no surprise as Jurcic and Bandic have never been close, despite being born in the same village, attending the same school and even being baptised in the same church. However, while Bandic built his base from the “bottom-up” and has a strong influence in Zagreb, Jurcic began building his political career in direct cooperation with Ivica Racan, and is politically renowned, despite his non-partisan position.

Under such circumstances, Ljubo Jurcic finished drafting SDP’s Economic Program only days ago. On Sunday 4 March, he confirmed for Nacional that the program’s slogan is “Greater economic growth for a better life” and is made up of three parts: industrial policy, regional policy and adaptations to the tax system. SDP is now in support of the reindustrialisation of Croatia, with Jurcic setting the course.

“I am for left economic policies, and not neo-Liberalism. It is easiest just to leave everything up to the market, but such a strategy will destroy the Croatian economy and leave people in the streets. Furthermore, no single serious country in the world runs a purely neo-Liberal economic policy, but instead defines its national priorities and implements state interventions to save jobs. We need to conduct ourselves the same in Croatia,” said Jurcic.

SDP’s economic programme is very optimistic and envisages a growth in industrial production from the current 4 to 8% in the first year of mandate. This would drive other sectors, bringing the gross domestic product up to 6% after only 12 months, and even high as time goes on. Jurcic’s doctrine implies a growth in domestic production that should lead to higher salaries, pensions and dividends. In order to ensure that the economy will be competitive to those abroad, investments are planned into education centres.

Regional policy is an exceptionally important segment, meaning the creation of conditions for the development of the economy outside of Zagreb. The SDP government will promise to finance the development of infrastructure in other parts of Croatia, thereby stimulating people to come work in smaller towns. “There is no need here to create a specifically Croatian model, as well known models are in place in Germany, Italy, England and the US. We just need to make a decision – we need to maximally develop the wood industry and then ensure the conditions for quality production, and not just to export raw lumber. If Slovenia can produce good furniture, why couldn’t Croatia? The state needs to finance good ideas and open good quality schools, preschools and health care centres in those areas, to simulate the population to stay there or to even more there,” said Jurcic.

His programme also includes measures for the development of various areas, from Slavonia to Lika, Gorski Kotar and Zagorje to Dalmatia. The premise is to strengthen industry and agriculture in the provinces and to implement high-tech industry in Zagreb, Rijeka, Osijek, Slavonski Brod, Split and Dubrovnik. If these plans are realised, 100,000 new jobs would be created in four years time.

If Ljubo Jurcic will be entrusted with forming the government, an important part of his economic policy will be in the development of agriculture. The current state of affairs is illogical, as statistics show that agricultural production on a global scale has increased by 30% over the past 15 years, while in Croatia, this has dropped by 30%. SDP plans to stimulate the growing of crops that Croatia currently imports, and will stop paying the guaranteed buy outs of certain products like wheat, which is produced in twice the needed amount. If Jurcic sticks to his plan, this could lead to a conflict with many wheat producers, as well as potential partners such as the HSS party. Jurcic is not willing to bend on this issue, stating an example from his time as minister when the government needed to pay 400 million kuna to buy wheat that was not at all needed on the market.

Adjustments to the tax system includes tax on assets and capital gains. In other words, stock holders that earn a lot of money will be more heavily burdened with tax than they are today.

Ljubo Jurcic has held to his part of the bargain with Ivica Racan, formulating the economic policy of the next government, choosing his closest associates and agreeing to be SDP’s candidate for premier should the offer be made official. In that case, he would formally enter into the party, thereby eliminating any criticisms of his non-partisanship. Now it is Racan’s turn. He is expecting to undergo therapy for several months, but there is no doubt he will take over the party reigns very soon. The last few weeks have only confirmed that no one within the social democrats has such a strong influence or internal support as Ivica Racan. Therefore, whether or not SDP will stand behind Jurcic’s candidacy will rely on Racan’s health and his political decision.