AN IMPORTANT WEEK FOR SANADER If Prime Minister Sanader is not successful in resolving the blockade of the negotiations with the EU, Croatia is threatened with a rise in nationalism and anti-European sentiment, which could have an effect on the political situation in other countries in South East EuropeCroatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader faces what may be, in terms of foreign policy, the toughest week since he has come to the helm of Croatian Government. Sanader has to resolve two very thorny issues, and both concern the unblocking of Croatia's negotiations with the EU. If he does not succeed in doing so the repercussions for Croatia could be long-lasting not only as regards foreign policy but also in domestic policy. A significant number of people opposed to EU accession will emerge, the influence of the political right will grow, and with it nationalism, which will in no way cast Croatia in a good light in international affairs.

And as a result it could affect the political scene in other countries in South East Europe, so that it is no wonder that the USA has gotten involved in the latest goings on with Croatia at the UN. That this is the case is evident from the information Nacional has that Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader will meet this week with the US ambassador to the UN Susan Rice, and with the US ambassador for war crimes issues Clint Williamson.

At the beginning of the week, on Monday, the Croatian Prime Minister met with the European enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn. The reason was the Slovenian rejection of the European commissioner's initiative to resolve the border dispute with Croatia, which Croatia accepted unconditionally, in spite of which the negotiation process remains blocked. The other problem is the report from chief Hague prosecutor Serge Brammertz on Croatia's cooperation with the Hague tribunal, to be submitted on Thursday to the UN Security Council.
Considering that it is already clear that the report is a negative one because of the problems in locating the artillery logs from Operation Storm, the 23rd negotiation chapter, dealing with the judiciary, will continue to be blocked. The results of the Croatian Prime Minister's diplomatic initiative in New York could be the continuation of the negotiation process between Croatia and the EU and its speedy conclusion by the end of the year, or the blockade of negotiation chapters for an undetermined period of time, which would make the end of the Croatian negotiation process with the EU uncertain and put it off for a few years. The arrival of Olli Rehn in New York to meet with Sanader is indicative of just how serious the situation is.

THE US AMBASSADOR FOR WAR CRIMES Clint Williams will meet with Sanader to discuss Croatia's difficulties related to a negative report on Croatia's cooperation with the Hague tribunal from chief Hague prosecutor Serge BrammertzThere is less and less time for any kind of progress, because the elections for European Parliament are approaching and the EU will have less and less time to deal with Croatian problems, and Rehn's role in the transition period will be a solely technical one. At the Monday meeting with Olli Rehn Sanader asked that Croatia's unconditional acceptance of Rehn's compromise initiative be recognised and that Croatia as a result be allowed to move forward given that Slovenia has rejected the proposal.
Sanader Also asked Rehn that the European "troika", made up the Czech Republic, France and Sweden, be notified of Croatia's cooperative position. Nacional has learned from sources close to the negotiation team that Sanader told the European enlargement commissioner that Croatia will not accept further compromises or barter with its territory for access to the EU. Sanader also told Rehn that Croatia was willing to sign a statement to the effect that it does not by any document prejudice the border with Slovenia, and that it is as a result seeking the unblocking of the negotiations, which is in line with France's compromise solution.
What is interesting is that the US administration is getting more and more involved in the entire situation, and is looking to a speedy resolution of the problem, Nacional has learned from diplomatic sources. The US administration feels that this kind of blockade of the negotiations, bordering with blackmail, could have a damaging influence on the European perspectives of the rest of South East Europe. The recent visit to the region by US Vice President Joseph Biden has shown how much attention the US will dedicate to stability in the Balkans, and the only firm support to Balkan stability are its European perspectives. If this kind of blockade of Croatia continues similar blockades could happen in the future, which would lead to the strengthening of Euro-scepticism and the revival of nationalistic and right-wing political options that would once again make the Balkans a part of the problem. The second very important problem Croatia faces in the negotiation process is the blockade of the chapter on the judiciary resulting from the evaluation of Hague prosecutor Serge Brammertz that Croatia is not fully cooperating with the Hague tribunal as it has not submitted the so-called artillery logs. Croatian Government recently drafted an integral report on the artillery logs describing how they were created, their movement, and how they have disappeared or been destroyed.

THAT THE SITUATION regarding the Croatian negotiations with the European Union is alarming is testified to by the fact that Olli Rehn came to New York to meet with Sanader; Rehn in discussion with Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan JandrokovicThose documents it has succeeded in locating it has submitted to the Hague prosecution, and explained what happened to those it did not succeed in finding. Before meeting with the chief Hague prosecutor, Sanader will, after his meeting with Olli Rehn, meet in New York with the US ambassador to the UN Susan Rice and with Clint Williamson, the US ambassador for war crimes, Nacional has learned. That means that Sanader could receive US support for his position, which is not at all negligible. The Croatian Prime Minister will try on Wednesday to satisfy the chief Hague prosecutor that Croatia has done all it could in locating the documents and that it does not deserve a negative evaluation. In relation to the previous report from the chief Hague prosecutor that Croatia is not fully cooperating with the Hague tribunal because of the artillery documentation, Sanader feels that this time Croatia should be recognised for all of the efforts it has made in cooperation with the Hague tribunal in locating the documents, evident from the recent detailed report drafted by Croatian Government.
At the very least the Croatian Prime Minister will ask Brammertz to submit a balanced report. And, if Brammertz remains on his current position, Sanader will directly join the discussion on the report, and one of the possibilities is for Croatia to turn to the Hague Tribunal's appeals chamber. It is then not entirely by coincidence that Sanader will also meet with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, and with the president of the Hague tribunal Patrick L. Robinson on Wednesday. At the meeting with the president of the Hague tribunal Sanader will express his unhappiness with the way in which the level of a country's cooperation with the Hague tribunal is evaluated and recognised. For Croatia it has become unacceptable that only one side in the process is relevant in evaluating the cooperation, and will therefore propose that the Hague Tribunal's appeals chamber decides on the matter.

US AMBASSADOR TO THE UN Susan Rice will meet with Prime Minister Ivo Sanader this weekThere is no doubt that the Croatian diplomacy will try to make use of its position as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, and above all the significant military contribution it makes to UN missions around the world, to defend its position as regards the cooperation with the tribunal the UN established in The Hague. For many of the observers of the events concerning the blockade of the Croatian negotiations with the EU it is very important that Croatia now succeeds in changing the Hague tribunal prosecutor's negative opinion of its cooperation with the tribunal. If it does not succeed in doing so the resolution of the Slovenian blockade of the accession talks will take a back seat, there will not be the necessary pressure on Slovenia from the European "troika", because Croatia will also be blocked in the chapter that concerns the judiciary. With the elections for European Parliament and the holidays everything will get very watered down until the start of 2010, i.e. only at the start of next year could things start again from the beginning with the talks on the Slovene blockade. In that scenario, very possible in the current circumstances, and which guarantees absolutely nothing even in 2010, Croatia can hardly expect full membership before 2012.
Now it is quite clear that as a result of the blockade to its progress towards EU membership that Croatia has to see to strengthening its alliance with the US. Croatia has an excellent starting position in seeking American diplomatic assistance, as Croatian-American relations are at their highest point since the end of Operation Storm. The accession of unprepared Bulgaria and Romania to the EU is an excellent example of how much influence the US wields in Europe.