RADIMIR CACIC AND ZORAN MILANOVIC will find it easy to agree on anti-recession measures: those the HNS and SDP already have are practically identicalThe leaders of the SDP, HNS and IDS will meet in Sibenik in mid-August. But unlike last week's meeting in a Kastav restaurant, which had only symbolic significance, the opposition's socialising in Sibenik will be of a much more sensitive nature - Zoran Milanovic, Radimir Cacic and Ivan Jakovcic will demonstrate on concrete points whether their new political initiative has a future, i.e. whether it will appear at the next elections for Parliament as a multi-party opposition coalition ready to defeat the ruling HDZ. If they succeed in reaching an agreement on all key points, a third meeting is to be held in Vukovar in mid-September that would see a pre-election coalition agreement signed.

But the plan the opposition troika has lined up over the coming days is faced with tough assignments. And while they all radiated an air of optimism after last week's meeting in Kastav, Milanovic, Cacic and Jakovcic have not in fact resolved the five toughest challenges facing their collaboration. Certainly the first is a common political agenda, i.e. a list of key measures they are ready to undertake to bring the country out of the current crisis. The second challenge will be talks on the share of participation the parties would have in a future government, i.e. the posts they would get, where Milanovic would capitalise on his role as leader of the project by securing the nomination to be the Prime Minister. The third challenge will be the opposing views concerning a joint candidate for the post of President of the Republic. Forth on the list is the issue of the current President, Stjepan Mesic.

Neither the leaders of the opposition, nor the Croatian public, know yet how and in what capacity Mesic intends to remain active in Croatian politics. The fifth challenge concerns the openness of the, for now, three-member opposition group to other political groups, especially towards political parties participating in the current HDZ-led administration. Besides the fact that all of the challenges facing the "Kastav Group" are very complex, another factor not playing into their hands is the still very uncertain and key resolution of Mesic's future role, the outcome of which is not expected before the year is out, or further in the future. Will he join the Kastav group in some capacity or move to realise the idea of a "third bloc"? And because Mesic will not, as a non-affiliated politician, go on the record concerning his future engagement until he leaves the President's Office on Pantovcak Street, all that remains is to await indirect signals from the President's Office or to await, as he promised publicly, an open statement on his choice of successor a month ahead of the presidential elections. A day or two after last week's meeting in Kastav Nacional's sources from the three opposition parties made no effort to conceal what is, besides, clear to many - the joint meeting was not the result of months of planning behind the scenes, but was in fact an ad hoc meeting precipitated by Sanader's unexpected flight from active politics and the increasingly frequent rumours that Mesic could take over the key role in creating what has been dubbed the "third bloc". There had, admittedly, been signs of a possible collaboration of opposition parties earlier, preceded by talks between Milanovic and Vesna Pusic in Dubrovnik some ten days ago.

The new Mayor of Dubrovnik, Andro Vlahusic, a member of the HNS Central Committee, invited them there ahead of the Dubrovnik Summer Games. He has been pushing within his party for a strategic collaboration with the SDP for some time now. Upon his return to Zagreb the SDP boss met on Monday, 13 July, with IDS MP Damir Kajin, and after that meeting moved the next morning to set up the meeting in Kastav. The two-hour dinner only yielded an initial agreement, which some feel is little, and some feel is - a good start. That is why the Sibenik meeting, scheduled for 15 August, will demonstrate all of the potential of the Kastav group. All of the participants of the dinner meeting left with points they need to discuss in under a month with their closest associates. The relatively easiest task is to work out a common political agenda - it should cover harmonising measures that would bring Croatia out of the difficult economic situation it currently faces. Since Cacic has on behalf of the HNS for months now pushed for a number of anti-recession measures, and the SDP has a similar list drafted by Ljubo Jurcic, and even though it does concern the exceedingly difficult problems Croatia faces, it can be assumed that the tripartite opposition group will find agreeing on this task quickest and easiest. The second challenge is much more sensitive. From the statements the party leaders have made so far it can be concluded that it was agreed in Kastav that the SDP would, as the most powerful party, hold the central position in the group, and would thereby have the right to put forward Milanovic as the candidate for the post of Prime Minister. It is, however, clear that the first tensions will arise when discussing a future government and a division of functions.

VESNA PUSIC met in Dubrovnik with Zoran Milanovic, and it was from there that the initiative for the Kastav meeting came; in the photo with President MesicAs Nacional's sources point out it was already at the Kastav dinner meeting that HNS president Cacic advocated appointing a shadow cabinet, but Milanovic and Ivan Jakovcic rejected the proposal. But the subject will come on the agenda sooner or later, and it will be the first test of the maturity of the opposition politicians and their ability to curb ambitions. The third challenge - a joint presidential candidate - will also be key to the functioning of the opposition group. It appears for the moment that each of the gathered parties has their own candidate - the SDP has Ivo Josipovic, the IDS has Damir Kajin and the HNS is likely to put forward Radimir Cacic. Given that the SDP has cemented its position on the subject with its primary elections the next steps should be taken by the IDS and the HNS. Nacional's sources from the SDP leadership have confirmed that they expect their opposition partners to back the Josipovic nomination, and to not try to impose or nominate their own people. And while the IDS nominated Damir Kajin for the presidency prior to the Kastav meeting, pragmatic statements could be heard coming from that party last weekend from which one could read that the party was willing to back Josipovic as the joint nominee. "We will not move recklessly, even though we would like for Istria to have its candidate. It would be stupid to have an opposition within the opposition," a top IDS official told Nacional. This attitude has yet to be heard from the HNS, which comes as no surprise given the big ambitions of Cacic and Vesna Pusic. Some of the participants of the Kastav dinner meeting confirmed for Nacional that Cacic still has not abandoned a HNS presidential nominee, and as a form of compromise agreed that a public opinion poll be carried out in September with the aim of testing which opposition candidate would have the best chance of winning. Since the SDP and the IDS feel that even that will not satisfy Cacic's plans, there have already been ideas of satisfying the HNS's appetite by offering it a greater share of representation in a future government and of offering Cacic the post of deputy prime minister.

The fourth big challenge is the future role of President Mesic. However much some political players try to play down his influence and importance, two things are clear at the moment - that he intends to remain active in politics and that he has massive political weight. And while analyses have surfaced these past days based on which a possible SDP-HNS-IDS coalition would reduce the chances of Mesic's seeing through the idea of a third political bloc, it has not yet been excluded. What is more, there is speculation that Mesic could form a regional third bloc, via parties and political figures who hold power in various parts of Croatia. In Slavonia this is the HDSSB, i.e. Vladimir Sisljagic and Kresimir Bubalo, Milan Bandic in Zagreb, Jakovcic and the IDS in Istria, Zeljko Kerum in Split and Stipe Gabric Jambo in southern Dalmatia. According to some, Mesic last week already demonstrated his regional intentions by visiting the town of Metkovic and meeting with Jambo. All three of the opposition parties whose leaders were in Kastav have indicated that they would like to see Mesic in their ranks, but it is an open question whether he would agree to bringing in his political dowry in exchange for an uncertain status in an uncertain coalition, especially if one takes into consideration that he does not have an overly favourable opinion of Milanovic and Cacic. On the other hand, Mesic and his concept have been quite openly courted by Milorad Pupovac and the SDSS. Mesic has over the past months been in contact with the leaders of the HSLS and the HDSSB, and it is an open question as to whether Milanovic could on the long term keep the IDS and HNS on his side if Mesic offered them a more concrete role in setting up his political initiative. As a result there is still a great fear of Mesic in the SDP, and even though some of the SDP leadership considers him a "77-year-old granddaddy who ought to retire honourably," they are still aware in the biggest opposition party that Mesic could disrupt many plans - among others by seriously undermining the Kastav group.

The fifth challenge facing the SDP, IDS and HNS concerns the possible broadening of the opposition troika to new coalition partners. Just a day or two after the Kastav meeting and a nominal invitation to join, the possibility was with more or less restraint greeted by some of the HDZ's current coalition partners, above all the HSLS and the SDSS. But, as Nacional's sources emphasise, at the Kastav dinner the leaders of the IDS and HNS sharply opposed the possibility of entering into a coalition with those who are currently with the HDZ. "If they are there with them, then let them stay there," Nacional was told by a top IDS official, who did, however, add that "This is perhaps our emotional position, which is not politically rational." In any event, if Milanovic, as the leader of the opposition coalition does in fact launch negotiations with the other political parties on a possible collaboration, it is quite realistic that the current HDZ partners will demand the same or more than they have been given by the HDZ to switch to the left. This, on the other hand, will be opposed by the IDS and HNS whose leaders warn that the SDP must honour the fact that they stood by Milanovic's side from the start. One need not forget some existing animosities, such as the strained relations between the HNS and the HSLS. Milanovic could also play a key role in it all if he won over the HSS, which currently appears to be a very difficult mission, but would effectively silence the HNS's ambitions. In any event, the Croatian opposition, i.e. the SDP, IDS and HNS, faces demanding negotiations whose final outcome will show if they do in fact possess the strength and political maturity to take power in Croatia. In the process they have to be aware that the public's attention is focused on them - many will observe how the formation and formalisation of the Kastav group goes, because that will form the basis of their judgement as to whether they will, if they win power, run Croatia in a fashion significantly different from that of the Ivica Racan administration.