A SPECTACLE AT ZADAR'S FORUM Durda Adlesic, Vladimir Seks and his wife enjoyed a concert by famed tenor José Carreras last week, but Seks also had a politically pragmatic reason to visit ZadarJosé Carreras, one of the world's best known tenors, performed in Zadar for a audience of three and a half thousand, but some did not come to Zadar for the music only. After the Spanish opera singer and the Croatian Radio & Television Symphony Orchestra completed their performance of well-known compositions, Vladimir Seks and Nadan Vidosevic met and concocted a plan to oust Andrija Hebrang as the HDZ presidential nominee. Hebrang was in fact to have been replaced by Vidosevic, and the deal was hammered out during a three-hour dinner meeting at a luxurious restaurant in Zadar after the concert. In the company of Deputy Prime Minister Durda Adlesic, enjoying select delicacies, Seks offered Vidosevic the HDZ presidential nomination, initially designated to Andrija Hebrang, his close political associate and ally in bringing down Ivo Sanader from the helm of the party.

But Seks' plan fell through even before it got off the ground. When the Jutarnji list daily ran a story on how Vidosevic would be the HDZ presidential nominee, turmoil broke out within the party, there was conflict within the party leadership, the party's presidency faced a rift, and a great number of prominent HDZ members opposed the idea, considering that Vidosevic had positioned himself as an opponent of the party over the past years. The opposition of the membership was so great that party leader Jadranka Kosor was forced that same evening to deny the entire story in the Vecernji list daily. Vladimir Seks himself, considered the party's eminence grise, frightened by the reaction from his party colleagues, denied he had spoken with Vidosevic, describing their contact in Zadar as a chance meeting.
On the other hand, Hebrang, the man who was to have been pushed out of the nomination, has overnight become the most popular person in the HDZ, and his presidential nomination enjoys almost plebiscitary support within the party. Seks' plan has blown up in his face, Hebrang is now more popular within the party than ever, and the conflict between these two HDZ veterans and the party's leading figures could escalate soon, further undermining the stability of the already shaky HDZ.

What Seks motives were in moving to bring down Hebrang is for the moment not entirely clear, but in the words of Nacional's source, a person close to the HDZ brass, one of the possible reasons was that Seks, reading recent public opinion polls, does not believe that Hebrang can bring the party victory at the presidential elections. In these polls Vidosevic is faring much better, and there are prognoses that he currently has a much broader base of potential voters than Hebrang does, above all because of Hebrang's firm ideological positions.

It is as a result of these positions that Hebrang has been at odds with President Stjepan Mesic for years. In a recent interview for the Novi list daily Mesic said that Hebrang's possible victory at the polls would be "his personal defeat." In doing so the President indirectly indicated that he would fight Hebrang's nomination, and given Mesic's continuing strong influence among voters, his position could prove an insurmountable obstacle to the victory of the HDZ's nominee. Vidosevic is, on the other hand, on good terms with Mesic and it can be assumed that he would, as the HDZ nominee, even enjoy a degree of support from the President.ANDRIJA HEBRANG His presidential nomination is threatened by a secret deal between Seks and Vidosevic

Whether Seks reached some kind of deal with Mesic is unknown, but it is a fact that he missed entirely in gauging Nadan Vidosevic's image among the party membership. Many of them consider Vidosevic the HDZ's opponent, which is logical given that he spent years as the head of the Croatian Chamber of Commerce criticising the work of the HDZ administration. And while he is formally a member of the HDZ, he has not participated in its work for years, and the possibility that he be nominated for the presidency is evidently not widely supported in the HDZ. On the other hand, it is obvious why Vidosevic was interested in Seks' initiative. With the support of the HDZ - their logistics and financial backing on the one hand, and his good relations with President Mesic on the other, he would probably be favoured to win the presidential elections.
But just the idea that Nadan Vidosevic could be the party's presidential nominee is so offensive to many HDZ members that they have closed ranks around the idea that Andrija Hebrang has to be the party's nominee for the presidency.

Even before these developments Hebrang enjoyed a significant level of support within the party, and as sources within the HDZ can attest, he will use his newly won popularity this week to seal the nomination. Judging by the current mood in the party the nomination will be accepted by acclamation, and Croatia will get its first serious presidential nominee from the political right. Unlike his competitors Josip Jurcevic and Miroslav Tudjman, Hebrang, with the HDZ infrastructure, is able to attract a large number of Croatian citizens. Insofar Hebrang could become the new leader of the Croatian right, but he will have to win the support of all the fractions within the party to do so. That includes the support of Seks, and it is an open question whether that is possible after he tried to oust him.

GORDAN JANDROKOVIC could be replaced by former Foreign Minister Miomir Zuzul The clash between Seks and Hebrang is only one of the conflictual situations that have hit the ruling party these past days. Finance Minister Ivan Suker and Deputy Prime Minister Damir Polancec were the protagonists last week of an unprecedented argument in Government. Suker and Polancec are alleged to have had a heated exchange concerning a possible increase in the VAT rate, shouting at one another and not holding back even when it came to foul language.
Something similar happened a few months ago when Suker clashed with Health Minister Darko Milinovic, when, allegedly, they even came to blows. What is likely behind these incidents is a sense of anxiety concerning the situation in the country, and in the party after Ivo Sanader left its helm. In this situation Jadranka Kosor is considering some serious personnel changes in Government, and as many as five minister's could find themselves out of work. According to the information Nacional has, Minister Suker is the first who would go because the Prime Minister is not happy with his work on rebalancing the budget. Allegedly, Jadranka Kosor wants Borislav Skegro to take Suker's place, but it is an open question as to whether he would even be interested in getting bank into Government given the lucrative private business he leads. A reserve option is one of the experts from the Croatian National Bank that have good standing in the public eye.

Foreign Minister Gordan Jandrokovic could be the second on the hit list, and would be replaced by Miomir Zuzul if it was not for the negative public image Zuzul has as a result of being connected to many scandals. It is possible as a result that Jandrokovic could be replaced by one of the experienced, professional diplomats like Hidajet Biscevic, the current General Secretary of the Regional Cooperation Council. There is a rumour in Government circles that things do not bode well for Bianca Matkovic, a Minister without Portfolio, either. She joined the cabinet solely as a part of Sanader's political farewell. Given that her influence in the party is waning daily, and that Jadranka Kosor does not have the highest opinion of her capabilities, Bianca Matkovic is now at the mercy of the shifting political winds.DAMIR POLANCEC had a fierce altercation with Suker over the issue of raising the VAT rate; they shouted insults at one another in an unprecedented and heated argument in cabinet

And while Jadranka Kosor will be the one to formally decide on personnel changes in Government, leading HDZ figures such as Vladimir Seks, Andrija Hebrang and the Prime Minister's closest and trusted associate, Ivan Jarnjak, will have a massive influence on the decision.
From now on all key decisions on the future of the HDZ, and of the country, will be made by these people. But, and precisely because of that, any conflict between them, like this latest falling out between Seks and Hebrang, could have dire consequences for the future of both the HDZ and that of Croatia.