WHAT IS BEHIND THE SMILES Croatian Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor and Slovenia Prime Minister Borut Pahor met in a cordial atmosphere in Trakoscan, but it remains unknown what they agreed on – for now it appears only that Croatia has agreed to all of Slovenia's demands The members of Croatian negotiation teams have started preparations to withdraw contentious documents, one of the Slovene conditions for unblocking the negotiations between Croatia and the European Union, Nacional has been told by a high-ranking official in the Jadranka Kosor administration.

This is confirmation from a close aid of the Croatian Prime Minister of the news published last week by Nacional that Jadranka Kosor and Borut Pahor reached an agreement at their first meeting in Trakoscan on 31 July about the withdrawal of the allegedly contentious documentation.
Jadranka Kosor declined to meet with Davorin Rudolf recently. He had requested information on what had been discussed at the meeting between the two Prime Ministers. But some of her aids admit that there has been an agreement on issues relating to the documents that bother Ljubljana.

A condominium, i.e. possible joint administration of the Bay of Piran was only discussed as a secondary issue at the meeting in Trakoscan, and it was agreed that talks would continue. But the basis of the Trakoscan meeting is Jadranka Kosor's positive attitude towards the withdrawal of dozens of documents. It will be clear in September whether there will be a significant breakthrough, as Croatia should by then complete at least part of the work the Slovenians are insisting on. This is confirmed by the local diplomacy. "No one believes anymore that their will be an unblocking of our negotiations with the European Union in the coming three months, but it is unproductive to wait until October or November, and then begin resolving the problem with Slovenia. Let's be realistic, we had to agree to most of their demands, even though it is for the most part classic political blackmail," is the opinion of a well informed Croatian diplomat.

Although stated diplomatically, the words of this official confirm that the Government led by Jadranka Kosor is considering a shift in the existing strategy, and that means simply agreeing to the key Slovene demands. At issue are negotiation documents and positions submitted to Brussels in the frame of the negotiations between Croatia and the EU. For the Slovenia government and opposition these documents are proof of Croatian territorial expansionism. It all started in late 2008 when the Slovenian Foreign Ministry compiled a list of Croatian ordinances and laws that, allegedly, contain contentious provisions and maps, which are the basis of the blockade of the negotiations between Croatia and the European Union. An analysis of the Slovenian ultimatum shows that theirs is for the most part nitpicking, and it will be interesting to see how the Croatian authorities justify agreeing to the demands coming out of Ljubljana.

In the chapter on the free movement of capital, for example, they cite as unacceptable the Croatian management program for agricultural holdings in state ownership, which deals with some 266,000 hectares. What is contentious is that a part of these holdings, which are to be sold or leased, are, in the opinion of Ljubljana, on Slovenian territory. In the chapter on food safety, veterinary and phytosanitary policy Croatia is accused of adopting a new ordinance on the implementation of veterinary and health examinations and supervision in November of 2008, all of which refer to the customs act which, for its part, mentions the epicontinental zone. And since Slovenia does not accept the Croatian variant of the epicontinental zone, they decided to block this chapter.

They also further stiffened the blockade because of another article of the Croatian customs law that states that its provisions also pertain to the area of the epicontinental zone. The Slovenes also have very great reservations towards the chapter on fisheries, and according to their diplomacy Croatia is using numerous laws and subordinate legislation that prejudice the international border between the two countries. Broadly stated, in Ljubljana they claim that Zagreb has drawn the border in places where it has yet to be agreed upon. A similar argument us being used in the chapter on agriculture because Slovenia feels that a part of the land Croatia claims rights to is on their territory.FRUITLESS EFFORT Ivo Sanader and Olli Rehn tried to resolve the Slovene blockade, but were unsuccessful

The government led by Borut Pahor also holds the third article of the maritime act in dispute, which states that the "maritime fisheries are the areas of the sea on which the Republic of Croatia has sovereignty, pursuant to international law, and consists of the territorial sea fisheries and the outer sea fisheries, which includes the Protected Ecological & Fishing Zone." Subordinate legislation defines 11 fishery zones, of which Zone A starts at the mouth of the Dragonja River and runs to middle of Savudrija Cove (Bay of Piran). The Slovenes are also bothered by some other provisions of these subordinate legislation documents, such as setting the mouth of the Dragonja River as the border of the river fisheries zone between Croatia and Slovenia. Also allegedly contentious is the fact that the border with the epicontinental zone of Italy is also cited several times, and that the ordinance also includes maps with demarcated borders, as they are seen by the Croatian Government. Here - for the Slovenes - the ordinance on fish catch logs and the submission of data on economic fishing, which cites Zone A in several places, is unacceptable.

In the chapter on taxation the Slovenes are bothered by the citation of the Public Roads Act, on the basis of which Croatia in April of 2008 implemented the classification of state, county and local roads. Mentioned among others is the Plovanija-Buje border crossing; Ljubljana claims that former Prime Ministers Janez Drnovsek and Nikica Valentic reached an agreement based on which this border crossing would function as a temporary solution until a final agreement on the border was reached.

The chapter on the "trans European" network includes a map that has a maritime border on it, as does the 2008 to 2011 national railway infrastructure development program. In Slovenia they claim that parts of the railroad route cross their land. Likewise, the Croatian environmental safety act includes regulations on intervention procedures in the event of sudden sea pollution. This again includes mention of the area covered by the Protected Ecological & Fishing Zone, as a result of which Slovenia has blocked the chapter on regional policy and structural instruments. As a further argument in favour of the blockade, Pahor's government has also cited the regulation on air quality, which also cites the allegedly contentious maps.

Also mentioned is the Plovanija-Secovlje border crossing, which Croatia lists as a first category international border crossing, while Slovenia cites the Valentic-Drnovsek agreement and the decision at the time that it was a temporary border crossing. As a further argument the Slovenes cited similar border crossings with Serbia and Montenegro that Croatia treats as temporary. Jadranka Kosor has accepted the Slovene demands and Croatia will withdraw the contentious documentation.

It should be noted here that former Prime Minister Ivo Sanader proposed two very similar proposals to unblock the Croatian accession negotiations back in June at a Brussels meeting of the heads of European people's parties. Without concessions on the part of Croatia, Slovenia would not unblock the talks, and the very small likelihood that Brussels will undertake any initiatives of this kind over the coming months works in its favour. The blockade will last at least to the end of October when an intergovernmental accession conference will be held, and the new bodies of the EU should be constituted at about that time. Croatia is dependent on the tempo of the negotiations that will be led in Union bodies.

For now the most likely scenario is the formation of a coalition of conservatives and liberals, and over the coming months no one intends to concern themselves overly with the nations endeavouring to accede to the European Union. Unless Jadranka Kosor reneges in the meantime on the promises she made at the Trakoscan meeting, Government will in September consent to the Slovene demands and withdraw the contentious documents. Two high-ranking sources from the HDZ have confirmed for Nacional the readiness for this move, for which they allegedly have the backing of the other coalition partners. The decision is logical if one takes into account the economic problems Croatian Government will face. Some of the unions have already announced they would stage strikes and protests, opinion polls show the HDZ presidential nominee Andrija Hebrang lagging far behind Ivo Josipovic, and in these circumstances Jadranka Kosor has to find a political topic through which she can better the ruling coalition's image.

It looks like that could be the negotiations with the European Union, under the condition, of course, that Slovenia backs down from its blockade. Given that the two country's squabble concerning the Bay of Piran has been an ongoing affair since 1992, and a solution has appeared imminent at every moment over the past two years, caution should be exercised. The fact is that Slovenia, as a EU member, has the advantage, but Ljubljana is also aware that its behaviour in the dispute with Zagreb has deeply compromised them in the eyes of the other members of the Union.

It is, then, also in Pahor's interest to find an acceptable solution, one that allows Slovenia to say that their crucial interests have been met, and that does not in the process spark off a political crisis in Croatia. Otherwise the negotiations will be delayed yet again, and even if the Jadranka Kosor administration were to fall, a future government would be hard pressed to come up with some new and generally acceptable solution. One need not forget the EU and the USA either, both of which want the talks to continue.

The current blockade sends a bad signal to the other countries of Southeastern Europe and opens the way to a continuation of new crises. In these circumstances Jadranka Kosor can count on the support of Brussels and Washington, if she decides to withdraw the documentation. Croatian Government will, it is understood, insist in return on the immediate unblocking of the negotiations on the part of the Slovenians, whereby it would demonstrate that it is abandoning its current policy. That is how the preliminary scenario of the agreement struck between Jadranka Kosor and Borut Pahor in Trakoscan looks like, and it will be seen over the next month and a half or so if there has been any real progress. Judging by the negotiations to date, one need not exclude the possibility of surprises.