Published in Nacional number 722, 2009-09-15

Autor: Robert Bajruši

TRUCE American style

Americans bring down Slovene blockade

TOP GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS have acknowledged that it was the US that in March dealt the first blow to the Slovenians, which continued when Hillary Clinton met with Samuel Zbogar

HILLARY CLINTON Barack Obama's Secretary of State was explicit in demanding an end to the blockadeHILLARY CLINTON Barack Obama's Secretary of State was explicit in demanding an end to the blockadeThe United States played the central role in the diplomatic pressure exerted on Slovenia. The Americans dealt the first blow to the Slovenians in March, and continued when Hillary Clinton met with Samuel Zbogar in Washington, and over the past weeks diplomatic activities have been additionally stepped up and Borut Pahor's government had to back down, a high-ranking diplomatic source at the Croatian Foreign Ministry confirmed for Nacional. A significant role in unblocking the negotiations was also played by Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, Carl Bildt, Jadranka Kosor and Gordan Jandrokovic, but even among top Government officials they now acknowledge that the negotiations with the European Union would still be at a standstill had the US not gotten involved. Washington began pressuring the Slovenians in the early spring, when they tried to thwart Croatian accession to NATO.

From the US perspective this kind of Slovenian policy, on the long term, threatened to worsen the political situation in Southeastern Europe, where Croatia has the role of the country that should secure stability. It has reaffirmed this by sending troops to Afghanistan, and by recognising Kosovo's independence in March of 2008. Of particular importance is Croatian Government's complete departure from Tudjman's policy towards Bosnia & Herzegovina, which, de facto, boiled down to an attempt to carve up the neighbouring country. The Sanader administration adopted a diametrically opposed position and completely rejected the idea of revitalising Herceg-Bosna, the entity championed by the Croatian political right. This position significantly contributed to improving Croatian-American relations, and the US pressure on Slovenia. What the US position on the matter was became evident on 30 July when Hillary Clinton and Samuel Zbogar met in Washington. Hillary Clinton was explicit then in demanding the talks be unblocked, which was evident from the official statements after the meeting with Zbogar. "The United States hopes for a resolution to the dispute between Croatia and Slovenia. Obviously, the two prime ministers are going to be meeting on Friday, and we are hopeful that the matter will be resolved to the benefit of both countries," said US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.


Samuel Zbogar tried to play down the significance of the US pressure, but did not deny information that the US wanted a final resolution of the dispute. "The Americans are welcome in the process, but we feel that it should all be resolved in the frame of the European Union." In any event, it became clear to the head of the Slovenian diplomacy while in Washington that unblocking the talks was in the US' interest and the process picked up steam thereafter. Jadranka Kosor and Borut Pahor had their first meeting two days later, which laid the foundation to a resolution of the crisis. The US role was crucial because Slovenia was clearly given to understand that it should find a way to back out of the blockade, and Croatia was urged not to reject a compromise and the proposition that the border dispute could only be resolved by an international court. Robert Bradtke, until recently the US ambassador to Croatia, also played a big role in the process. At the Foriegn Ministry they descibe Bradtke as a "great diplomat" very much to be credited for improving relations and an exchange of tactical information with Washington. Croatia joined NATO during his term as ambassador, which was preceeded by a visit to Croatia by former US President George W. Bush, which would not have happened without positive information from the office of Robert Bradtke.

DIPLOMATIC INFLUENCE As the Ambassador to the US Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic had good contacts in WashingtonDIPLOMATIC INFLUENCE As the Ambassador to the US Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic had good contacts in WashingtonThat does not mean that he supported every move made by Croatian Government a priori, but officials that took part in resolving the dispute between Croatia and Slovenia have only the best to say about his contribution. In the crisis that emerged from the Slovenian attempt to derail Croatian accession to NATO Bradtke advised Sanader by way of an intermediary that he restrain himself from giving heated commentary, and then publicly warned the Pahor administration that their behaviour was unacceptable. The US involvement in resolving the dispute was confirmed these days by US State Department spokesman Philip Crowley, who greeted the deal hammered out by Zagreb and Ljubljana, and confirmed that the US " had significant conversations with both countries," and that it had "helped through some quiet, skillful diplomacy." Diplomatic sources in Washington also indicated that it was in fact the American involvement, along with the efforts of the EU, that made an important contribution to the Croatian-Slovenian deal. And while she has taken a back seat ever since giving up the post of foreign minister, a good part of the legwork was done by Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic. In Government they feel that she has, over the past year since being appointed the Ambassador to the US, established very beneficial relations with representatives of the Washington administration, which has contributed to a stronger US engagement in the Balkans. The departure of Sanader was a mitigating circumstance, as she had been on very bad terms with the former Prime Minister over the past few years. Besides good contacts in Washington, the support of Minister Gordan Jandrokovic, whose close aid describes Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic as "one of our most capable diplomats, equally capable and charming," as works in her favour.

She has, in any event, done a big lobbying job in gaining US support for Croatia. There I no doubt that some European countries have also for months now been intensively engaged in removing the Slovenian blockade. The first major initiative was that of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, which fell through late last year. This was followed by the Czech presidency of the EU, which made no serious effort to end the blockade of the talks, although the period did see the start of the earnest international marginalisation of Slovenia. In early April the governments of some Western European countries, above all Germany and France, indicated that the Slovene blockade would last at most another five or six months. A high-ranking member of the German Federal Parliament responsible for Southeastern Europe said that Slovenia was too small country to defy the other members of the European Union, which have achieved a consensus on continuing talks with Croatia, on the long term. This German politician suggested to his Croatian colleagues that they be patient and avoid harsh words and accusations in their deliberations with Slovenia, advice recent events have borne out. Three other European countries almost nobody mentions also played important roles in weakening the Slovenian blockade – Italy, Austria and Hungary. But in the diplomatic circles of the EU high-ranking officials from these countries spent months lobbying for a stop to the blockade of the negotiation process.

Carl Bildt, the Swedish Foreign Minister, also deserves credit for giving the unblocking new impetus. Sweden has presided over the EU Council since 1 July. Bildt has been involved in Balkan affairs for some 15 years now. He has served as the EU peace envoy for Southeastern Europe, the international community's high representative to Bosnia & Herzegovina, he has testified before the Hague tribunal and is the owner of a summer house on the island of Korcula. He has a poor standing in Croatia because of his criticism of Operations Flash and Storm, and testified in favour of Biljana Plavsic before the Hague tribunal, but over the past two months has made quite an effort to resolve the Croatian-Slovenian border dispute. In the diplomatic community in Zagreb there is still scepticism concerning Bildt's political positions, but his current involved has been recognised. There is little he could do on his own, as it was with the French and Czech foreign ministers, but the US pressure on the Slovenians worked in his favour. Bildt appealed to Pahor and Zbogar to agree to unblock the negotiations at a meeting of EU foreign ministers held last week in Stockholm. The pressure has given results and Sweden will on 16 October organise a pre-accession conference at which the negotiations between Croatia and the EU will be continued, and it is realistic to expect that most chapters will be closed by the end of the year, while the remainder should be completed by mid 2010. That means that Croatia could become a member of the EU in 2012, and an example to Macedonia, Serbia and other Balkan countries that it pays to compromise.

AN AGREEMENT Slovenian Prime Minister Borut Pahor has worked out a deal with Jadranka Kosor to unblock the EU accession negotiationsAN AGREEMENT Slovenian Prime Minister Borut Pahor has worked out a deal with Jadranka Kosor to unblock the EU accession negotiationsThee is no doubt that part of the credit goes to Carl Bildt, who has an opportunity to establish himself during the Swedish presidency of the EU as one of Europe's most capable ministers. Besides the unblocking of the Slovenian-Croatian negotiations there is soon to be a repeat referendum in Ireland, the success of which would allow for the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty and the political transformation of the Union. And Bildt is organising a major gathering on climate change, which the Swedish presidency has underlined as the current biggest problem in the world. The successful resolution of these three open issues would promote Sweden's presidency of the European Union and Bildt as above average. Nacional's source in the Croatian Foreign Ministry has also singled out the exception role of Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor. When she took up the office of Prime Minister, it was assumed that her lack of international experience would mean that she would not bother herself overly with attempts to unblock the negotiations with the EU, but would rather concentrate her efforts on the economy and stabilising the social situation in Croatia. Now those who have had an opportunity to work with Jadranka Kosor since she took up the office of Prime Minister point out that she demonstrated a surprising level of diplomatic skill in the negotiations with Pahor. The framework for a resolution was, of course, drafted by Jandrokovic's team, with the help of Minister Ivan Simonovic in the legal wordings. But the actual talks were carried out by Prime Minister Kosor alone, who also had to take into consideration the counsel of both Washington and Brussels.

This success confirms the idea that she is more and more evidently making her mark on international politics. Just half a year ago she was entirely dependent on Sanader's decision as a result of which she was, in insider circles, often disparaged within the HDZ. And now in just two months Jadranka Kosor's position has changed by a hundred and eighty degrees, what is ore she bases her own political credibility on foreign policy. One should not belittle the fact that she has already met twice with Angela Merkel, and recently in Gdansk with Vladimir Putin, even though many national leaders tried in vain to set up meetings with the Russian Prime Minister. These appear to be minor, but are in fact significant indicators of her ever better rating. Few even remember Sanader in international political circles, the opposition is quite lacklustre, and Jadranka Kosor is slowly turning into a leader. Evidence of the very good relations between Croatia and the USA are the preparations for a high-level meeting soon, and according to diplomatic sources Hillary Clinton and Gordan Jandrokovic could meet in Washington.

Jadranka Kosor trusts Jandrokovic

■ What follows now is a new phase in the negotiations, in which the role of Jadranka Kosor also changes. So far the negotiations have been led on the political level, were she has shown herself to be very capable, but what follows now is a process in which the Prime Minister can oversee the talks, which should be led by someone with diplomatic experience. This opens up some space for Gordan Jandrokovic, who has been active in external affairs for many years. As the head of the diplomacy he has less influence in his ministry that did Ivo Sanader and Bianca Matkovic, but over the past three months the situation has changed. Sanader abdicated and Bianca Matkovic has been marginalised, which opens up manoeuvring room for Jandrokovic.

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