OPEN CHALLENGE Ivo Sanader did not respect Jadranka Kosor's wish that he not attend a ceremony marking the anniversary of Franjo Tudjman's death, but instead used the opportunity to publicly oppose her; in the background Sanader's loyal allies Mario Zubovic and Luka Bebic Mid way through last week Sanader gave Jadranka Kosor an ultimatum to either stop the anti-corruption campaign or tender her resignation as Prime Minister. The message was delivered to her by close friends of the former Prime Minister, and it represents the climax of the escalating conflict between Sanader and Jadranka Kosor. Sanader's demand evoked an uproar in the leadership of the governing party, and Kosor is now under pressure from her closest associates, who are proposing that she quickly call an inner-party election, at which they would rid the Croatian Democratic Union of Sanader's allies, according to a Nacional top Government source.

"On Sunday Jadranka Kosor definitely decided that there would be no more retreat from Sanader. The fight against corruption will continue, but that obviously is not possible with the current balance of power in the HDZ, within which the former Prime Minister's allies are still active. We will wait for the conclusion of the presidential elections and as soon as we know who will succeed Stipe Mesic, call an election within the HDZ. It is a risky strategy, but it is the only possible strategy that can end the obstruction that Ivo Sanader is responsible for. The main theme of the HDZ party elections will be 'are we for the fight against corruption,'" explains Nacional's source.

The conflict between these long time colleagues culminated on Thursday 10 December, on the tenth anniversary of the death of Franjo Tudjman. Despite the fact that Jadranka Kosor had told him not to show up at Mirogoj, Sanader turned a deaf ear and joined the HDZ delegation. His arrival garnered a lot of media attention, and it was clear that, barring a cold greeting, the two avoided any form of communication.

In the bus that transported the party delegation, Sanader had the last word and completely marginalised Jadranka Kosor. He used his post as honorary HDZ president, which ensures his participation within the framework of the party delegation, to show Jadranka Kosor that he is not afraid of her, and prepared to do anything to eliminate her from political life. Later that day - after she once again asked that he not make any more public appearances - he came to the cathedral where Cardinal Josip Bozanic was serving a commemorative mass for Tudjman.

Finally he went to dinner at the Mano restaurant, where he was joined by his chief political allies Luka Bebic, Jerko Rosin and Mario Zubovic. This was yet another public display by the former Prime Minister, who no longer meets with his sympathizers in secret but instead does so in public places. The purpose of making a public appearance is fairly obvious - Sanader is in this way sending Jadranka Kosor a message that he can still gather around himself a large part of the HDZ, and if the Prime Minister continues to support the fight against corruption, she may lose the allegiance of a part of the HDZ. Sanader has approximately ten of his people within the party presidency, and almost twenty MP's in parliament, without whose support Kosor cannot survive. That kind of scenario is still unlikely, because it would cause a schism in the governing party unseen since the HDZ split between the Ivo Sanader and Ivic Pasalic factions. However, if the police investigations continue, nothing is ruled out. Sanader knows that he can count on Bebic and Zubovic, while Rosin recently announced that, "Sanader will return in big style." Certain HDZ circles are re-telling of the alleged comment by Bianca Matkovic who recently said, "thank God the boss is coming back".

Sanader is basing his political come-back on the idea that the Croatian public wants his return, a theory he is being convinced of by those within the ranks of the HDZ that are unhappy with the current situation. This is a completely incorrect train of thought though, as the former Prime Minister no longer has a significant support base within his own party, much less with the public. Sanader fled the Prime Minister's post with two or three unconvincing explanations that he had done enough and that he was leaving his post to his political heirs. No one believed him, even more so because at the time he left Croatia it was in a worse situation than it is today. The recession had shaken the business sector, it was unclear how the tourism season would pan out, and accession to the European Union had been blocked for months. Entirely unexpected, Sanader's abdication evoked shock, but it was not followed by the disappointment he was hoping for, but instead anger amongst the majority of the public.

The animosity grew when it was discovered that he spent his summer on a luxurious yacht, to be followed in early Autumn by the uncovering of numerous cases of corruption involving his previous colleagues Branko Vukelic, Berislav Roncevic, Damir Polancec and Bozidar Kalmeta. It is known that they were not acting independently, and today, even within the HDZ, there is a feeling that it is only a question of time before one of these investigations implicates the former Prime Minister. In the coming months the HDZ faces two scenarios. The first implies the strengthening of Jadranka Kosor's position and an alignment of the vast majority of the party leadership around the current Prime Minister.

If Andrija Hebrang achieves a relatively solid result in the presidential elections, Kosor's position will stabilize and she will be in a position to initiate inner-party elections and an extraordinary HDZ general convention. In order to make that move, which could guarantee her definite authority, she must first make alliances with the most influential HDZ members, people like Hebrang, Vladimir Seks, Ivan Suker, Stanko Bacic, and Petar Cobankovic, as well as a slew of lower level officials. Only when she is confident in their support can Jadranka Kosor take on the Sanader clique. Of late she enjoys the support of the right wing of the HDZ, which in the past had not been supportive of her. Faced with the option of Sanader or Kosor, the right-wingers have opted for the current Prime Minister.

A new electoral party convention would strengthen the democratic legitimacy of Jadranka Kosor, who was elected to the post of HDZ president at the beginning of the summer by acclamation. That method of election was eliminated in democratic countries more than a century ago and it is in the interest of the Prime Minister that she confirms her political legitimacy through the standard democratic procedure. The second scenario is a Sanader counterblow and attempt at a party coup. This is not impossible because Sanader personally co-opted his people into the party presidency and can still rely on many of them for their support. Formally the presidency could issue a vote of no confidence against Jadranka Kosor, and request the calling of a party convention at which a new party leadership would be elected. This is a more difficult scenario to execute, but in an effort to protect himself and his people from investigation, Sanader is open to all options.

A cold greeting between the former and current Prime Ministers at Mirogoj last Thursday In that situation however, the fall of the coalition government is definite, followed by the calling of early parliamentary elections. Nacional contacted important representatives from the political parties that make up the ruling majority and received almost identical answers which boil down to the following: in the event of Sanader's return government will no longer be able to rely on the support of the HSLS, SDSS and majority of minority MP's, and there is a good likeliness that the HSS would also sever its coalition agreement with the HDZ. Besides this, Sanader's political comeback would be confronted by the media, opposition, independent intellectuals and the vast majority of the public. It is certain that negotiations with the European Union would once again be blocked, because in Brussels, and in a number of member countries, from Britain and Sweden to Germany and Austria, the former Prime Minister is viewed as being most responsible for the growth of corruption in Croatia.

This conflict and change would definitely compromise the HDZ and enable an opposition win. In the event that the SDP, HNS and IDS come to power, investigations into Sanader's activities would be intensified. Despite this Sanader's allies within the HDZ are prepared to take that risk, and have in recent weeks undertaken every measure in order to compromise Jadranka Kosor. This group has spread information that in an attempt to criminalise Sanader, Jadranka Kosor is working together with Stjepan Mesic. Last week's meeting between Mesic and Prime Minister Kosor, of which the public new nothing, is being used as damning evidence of this. The content of the discussion between the countries two most important figures is unknown, but in the days that followed, the conflict between Mesic and Sanader escalated. First Mesic said that it would be logical that USKOK question Sanader with regards to the sale of INA to Hungarian MOL, to which Sanader nervously replied that the State Prosecutor's Office could check up on Mesic and his team.

Jadranka Kosor's reaction was a definite distancing from Sanader. "I don't what to get involved," the Prime Minister commented. This means that not only did she not politically defend her predecessor, but it is also an indirect message to the judiciary that government has nothing against their verifying the accuracy of Mesic's statements. After all, even in the HDZ there is more and more speculation regarding the possibility that the State Prosecutor's Office question Sanader in connection to the details of the sale of the national oil company INA. Jadranka Kosor's reaction in effect means that she agrees with this development of events, and while she is the president of the HDZ and the Prime Minister, politics will not obstruct any eventual anti-corruption investigation against Sanader.It is understood that Jadranka Kosor's comment that she "doesn't what to get involved" evoked revolt among the Sanader people in the HDZ.

They released the information regarding an anti-HDZ coalition between Mesic and Kosor, and in one scenario it is mentioned that Jadranka Kosor has agreed to a future coalition between the HDZ and the so-called Third Bloc, which Mesic would establish when he leaves the President's Office. The climax of the pressure on Jadranka Kosor was Sanader's message in which he asked that the Prime Minister stop all anti-corruption measures or resign. Sanader's warning shows that he is convinced that the incumbent government will launch a police and judicial investigation against him. In an effort to stop this he is prepared to bring about a state of emergency in the HDZ and topple Jadranka Kosor. As a result of the growing pressure she faces within the HDZ, Jadranka Kosor agreed to a compromise and supported Bozidar Kalmeta, whose resignation the opposition was calling for. In normal circumstances, she would have coolly rid herself of Kalmeta, in whose ministry a series of corruption scandals have been uncovered and who as Minister, given the domain within which they occurred, is politically responsible. But opposition is growing within the HDZ to the criminalization of its people, and Kalmeta's ouster could have initiated a revolt against the Prime Minister.

BIANCA MATKOVIC recently commented Sanader's public appearances saying, "Thank God the boss is back" That is why the HDZ defended Kalmeta in Parliament, but Jadranka Kosor showed her true sentiments about the Transportation Minister by not attending that parliamentary debate. Working in Jadranka Kosor's favour is the international community's support for anti-corruption measures, particularly from the United States of America. Croatian media were very perfunctory in their coverage of last week's politically extremely important statement by the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who met in Washington with her Croatian colleague Gordan Jandrokovic.

Despite the fact that the topic of the meeting was bilateral cooperation and the presence of Croatian soldiers in Afghanistan, during their meeting with reporters at the US State Department, Hillary Clinton explicitly supported Jadranka Kosor and her anti-corruption policy. "Croatian success is a regional model for what can be achieved when a nation commits itself to reform and development. I specifically applaud the Prime Minister on her excellent leadership in anti-corruption efforts and other reform measures. I am confident that through our joint efforts in NATO and other multilateral institutions, the United States and Croatia will ensure a better future for their people, stability and peace in Europe, as well as a better and safer world," Hillary Clinton said. Hillary Clinton's statement reveals the nature of US policy towards Croatia, specifically with regards to the anti-corruption policy of Prime Minister Kosor. This position was confirmed for Nacional by an American diplomat in Zagreb, who openly asserted that corruption was expanding during the time when Sanader was Prime Minister, which almost entirely blocked the interest of foreign investors to invest in Croatia. "The former Prime Minister decided on everything, from the sale of INA to the opening of golf courses. It was an intolerable situation," the American diplomat said. America supports the incumbent government for three reasons: the first is the confrontation with corruption and organized crime initiated by Jadranka Kosor, the second is the good policy towards neighbouring countries, specifically reaching an agreement to resolve the border dispute with Slovenia, while the third is understanding American policy in the fight against terrorism.

After all, following her meeting with Jandrokovic, Hillary Clinton gave a very positive evaluation of the Croatian Armed Forces involvement in Afghanistan, but also of Croatia's role in defending Kosovo's independence at the recent deliberation before the International Court of Justice in the Hague.
In return Jandrokovic promised to increase the number of Croatian troops from 300 to 350, something he would not do without the support of Jadranka Kosor and Stjepan Mesic. Government knows that America offered key support with regards to Croatia's accession to the NATO alliance, as well as in later breaking the Slovene blockade. In return Croatia - as underscored by Hillary Clinton - regardless of the risk of a short-term souring of relations with Serbia, joined the United States and a group of countries before the Hague court in presenting legal grounds for Kosovo's right to independence.

Increasing the Croatian contingent in Afghanistan is yet another pragmatic move that contributes to the strengthening of ties between Washington and Zagreb, and the anti-corruption activity has led to official American support for the government led by Jadranka Kosor. However, the situation in which Jadranka Kosor finds herself in continues to be difficult, and Sanader's attempt to eliminate her from political life is the greatest, although not the only, problem she faces. In the coming month the Prime Minister must present a strategy to resolve the problem of the shipbuilding sector, which will evoke reactions from unions and the opposition. Projections show that state budget revenues are lower than expected, and there is no sign of an impending recovery of the Croatian business sector. Finally, because of the unresolved status of the so-called artillery logs, it is questionable when negotiations with the European Union will continue. In order to be able to commit herself to the problems that executive government needs to deal with, Jadranka Kosor must first resolve her primary problem, and its name is Ivo Sanader.