ARTILLERY LOGS Serge Brammertz during his visit to Croatia, en route for the Brijuni islands — it appears that the chief Hague tribunal prosecutor now accepts the proposition that Government is not trying to conceal documentation"I think it might still be overly optimistic to claim that the Hague tribunal's Chief Prosecutor Serge Brammertz has definitely changed his opinion and stood on Croatia's side. It was evident from the discussion we led that Brammertz remains critical and has stuck to most of his objections concerning Croatia's cooperation with the Hague tribunal, but it appears that he has started to slightly change his inflexible positions on this issue. It is difficult to presume from our position how his report to the UN Security Council will look this week, but based on the discussion we had I expect it to have a positive tone," a high-ranking state official confirmed for Nacional Sunday evening.

"Please try to understand that this issue is of paramount national importance for the future of Croatia. We are therefore not at liberty to describe the content of the discussion with Serge Brammertz in detail, but we sincerely believe that we have the right to be moderately optimistic, and that Croatia will get the green light to open negotiating Chapter 23, on the judiciary and fundamental rights, in June," is the unofficial position of the national leadership.

THAT, FOR THE MOST PART, IS THE THINKING in all of the institutions that were visited last week by Brammertz on his mini tour of Croatia. The chief Hague tribunal prosecutor spoke alone with President Ivo Josipovic and with Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor, and met with representatives of the State Attorney's Office on the Brijuni islands. The "moderate optimism" mentioned by Nacional's source - according to the national leadership - should soon be confirmed in the report submitted by Brammertz, of whom Croatia expects that he finally state that there is a solid cooperation between Zagreb and the Hague tribunal. There are several reasons why top Croatian politicians expect a positive opinion from the Hague prosecutor. Above all it appears that Brammertz too now accepts the idea that nobody in the institutions of Croatian Government is trying to conceal information concerning what have been dubbed the "artillery logs", documents on which the Hague prosecution bases a large part of its indictment against retired generals Ante Gotovina, Ivan Cermak and Mladen Markac. And unlike a year ago, when he issued an ultimatum that the artillery logs be delivered to him, Brammertz now wants information on where the documentation disappeared and who took them. And while this is a more favourable option for Croatia, a problem arises here, as even the Government task force responsible for finding out what actually happened has been unable to gain any relevant information. One state official dismally concluded recently that fifteen years after Operation Storm nobody knows any longer where the documentation on this military operation wound up. Another argument the national leadership is citing is the conviction that Brammertz is acting independently and is not under the sway of some European countries that want to keep Croatia out of the European Union as long as possible. This is a reference above all to Great Britain, which put a two-year halt on the start of the negotiations between Croatia and the EU using the unverified (and it was later revealed, untrue) information according to which Ante Gotovina was hiding in Croatia and had the benefit of the support of some local structures. Great Britain is numbered among a handful of countries that are still blocking the opening of Chapter 23, and are using the reservations expressed by the Hague prosecution as their chief argument.

IN SPITE OF THESE EPISODES, the conviction among top national officials is that there is no conspiracy against Croatia at the international level. There are more effective ways to block a country someone wishes to isolate in institutions such as the EU. Nacional's source listed a number of factors that led to the current situation - the Hague prosecution wants to maintain its credibility and get as many concessions from Croatia as it can. The inflexible position some of the foreign diplomacy has adopted towards Croatia dovetails with this policy, as have the errors of domestic policymakers, who are realistically responsible for the loss of the artillery logs, and who for months gave statements to the effect that these documents do not exist.

BESIDES THIS, AN ARTICLE PUBLISHED LAST WEEK in the Novi list daily according to which the British diplomacy wants Boris Tadic to moderate the border dispute between Croatia and Slovenia has caused an uproar in both Government and the Office of the President. And while it is unknown who the source of the Novi list report was, close aids to Jadranka Kosor and Ivo Josipovic say that it is a "scandalous oversight" that could have negative implications. The last argument that Brammertz has "softened" his position should be the support of the United States of America. The US has of late taken a strong role in supporting Croatia, and the culmination of this support was the recent meeting between Jadranka Kosor and US Vice President Joe Biden. Biden's written press statement after the meeting with Jadranka Kosor states the strong support of the US for the Croatian candidature for EU membership. In this context the statement, which abounds in positive assessments of the partnership between the US and Croatia, welcomes Croatia's cooperation with the Hague tribunal and the efforts of the Croatian Government to carry out key economic reforms and continue the war on corruption. Biden's office announced that he congratulated Prime Minister Kosor on finding a solution for the many-year border dispute with Slovenia. The US also supports the efforts of the Croatian Government to develop better bilateral relations with Serbia, and also supports it for supporting Kosovo and for assisting the international community in implementing reforms and the greater effectiveness of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

MINI TOUR In his search for documentation that would incriminate Gotovina Brammertz also paid a visit to President Josipovic last weekThe informal opinion of Croatian Government is that it is realistic to expect that the Americans will exert additional diplomatic pressure on Brammertz over the coming few weeks, and on the countries that oppose a speedy Croatian accession to the European Union. In Washington they are satisfied with the Croatian policy of regional cooperation and feel that it reduces the danger of destabilisation in the Balkans. The role of President Ivo Josipovic is key in this regard, as he has, in spite of the criticism of nationalist circles in Croatia, established good relations with the political leaderships of neighbouring countries since taking office. The US has official supported this policy, and the Croatian national leadership expects concrete diplomatic action from Washington. The timing is important as Brammertz is submitting his report to the Security Council on 31 May and will deliver it orally on 18 June. European Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule will submit a draft joint negotiating position on the opening of the Judiciary and Fundamental Rights Chapter to the EU Council on the basis of the Brammertz report.