IVO SANADER has increased contacts with high-ranking foreign officials to feel out the position of the international community on his possible comebackFormer Prime Minister Ivo Sanader is preparing his political comeback and has increased contacts over the past few weeks with his allies in Croatian, and with some politicians abroad. What is very important is that Sanader is demonstrating a growing interest in setting up a new political party in which he would gather a group of successful business people and some new faces on the political scene, while the established politicians he worked with in the past only come third on his list. The winner of the 2003 and 2007 parliamentary elections, Nacional has learned, is firmly convinced that Jadranka Kosor will not succeed in resolving the problems Croatia is faced with, and will, as a result, soon fall from power. A coalition led by the SDP (Social Democratic Party) will also not make any significant steps forward, and in these circumstances Croatians will seek an alternative, which is exactly what Sanader wants to offer. But while until recently he planned to make a comeback within the HDZ, it is now much more realistic that he will set up a new political party, whose programme would be based on stimulating economic prosperity. A new programme requires new, fresh faces and Sanader's latest moves have been directed at this goal.Sanader's acquaintances say that he has gathered a group of young people to his side, people that did not hold important posts in the HDZ. And while he is in constant contact with long time associates such as Luka Bebic, Mario Zubovic and Bianca Matkovic, he is clearly depending less and less on well known faces in the HDZ, and has turned to people with low public profiles. He was, besides, chucked out of Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) membership in January of this year, so that the priority in his plans has become establishing a new political party in whose membership he would like to see successful business people, and perhaps the odd established politician known for his or her economic initiatives. But, in essence, Sanader's party should be, in terms of its personnel and policies, new to the Croatian public forum. Establishing a new party is also linked to his recent trips abroad. Nacional learned several days ago from well informed political and diplomatic sources that Sanader has contacted several high-ranking officials in the German and US administrations, and in European Union institutions, with the aim of testing the ground in terms of the position of the international community towards his possible political comeback. Sanader is convinced that life in Croatia is paralysed as a result of the behaviour of two people - Jadranka Kosor and Mladen Bajic. But while he says of Bajic that it is impossible to move him out of the post of Chief State Attorney, he has suggested to the people he is in contact with that Jadranka Kosor should step down immediately.

Sanader has no intention of hurrying his new political engagement, because he is aware that his sudden and unexpected departure from politics was very poorly received by the public at large. The opening of corruption scandals with strong links to the government he led have further lowered his rating and setting up a political party in these circumstances would be counterproductive. Sanader plans to make his comeback only when the scenario he has foreseen begins to unfold. He is firmly convinced that the tough economic situation will lead to the fall of the current administration and of Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor, perhaps even by the end of the year, and at the latest by the elections for Parliament in 2011. Speaking recently off the record he spoke very negatively of Jadranka Kosor and said that he knew, having been her boss for many years, that the current Prime Minister was not an overly capable person. As a result of her limited capabilities this Government will not hold together much longer, which will be followed by early elections the HDZ would lose. The former Prime Minister is convinced that a left-of-centre coalition would then come into power, and that Zoran Milanovic would take the post of Prime Minister, but Sanader does not feel that he has much of a chance of stabilising government either.

Milanovic would be under pressure from his coalition partners, and the unions, disgruntled farmers and the politically right-leaning public. It is an open question just how well he would manage to control the situation, and the people around Sanader believe that this would open his big window of opportunity. The former Prime Minister plans to use the HDZ's fall from power to get back into politics, and would most likely do so through a new political party. His allies within the HDZ, however, say that Ivo Sanader has not definitely abandoned the possibility of rejoining the ranks of the HDZ. Setting up a new political party is a very demanding task and it is always an open question whether voters will accept a new platform. The HDZ, on the other hand, has been around for twenty years, has a powerful infrastructure and a very stable voter base. And what is more, from 2000 to 2009 Sanader had complete control of the internal party processes and knows very well on whom he can depend in the event of a comeback.

Over the past ten months Jadranka Kosor has eliminated almost all of Sanader's people in the HDZ and he only has some five or six allies in Parliament now, and those who support him in the local branches do not dare go public with the fact, fully aware that it would be the end of their political career. Sanader has, therefore, decided to wait out the negotiations with the European Union and he is convinced that the HDZ will suffer a loss at the upcoming elections for Parliament, if not sooner. In that case Jadranka Kosor would be hard pressed to hold on to the post of party leader and a succession struggle would ensue, and that is what the advocates of Sanader's return to the ranks of the HDZ are counting on. For him and the currently quite weak group that continues to support him a HDZ defeat at the polls opens a window for new political affirmation. And while this plan is largely dependent on the development of the situation in the political arena, Sanader feels that the existing circumstances play into his hand - the dissatisfaction of many Croatians with Government's policies and the profound economic and social problems.

JADRANKA KOSOR The defeat of the current HDZ line-up at the upcoming elections for Parliament would certainly open a window of opportunity for a Sander comeback to the public arenaSanader has demonstrated in the past that he possesses a sense of when the moment is ripe and patience is one of his chief traits of character. In the mid 1990s he withdrew to a lower profile post at the Foreign Ministry and waited a full five years to pop into the limelight. He then unscrupulously eliminated Ivic Pasalic and his intelligence community and criminal cronies and seized complete control of the HDZ. In the current situation there are a lot of open question marks in Sanader's plan, but the former Prime Minister is convinced that he can regain his former power and influence. That is why he tried recently to contact several major former and current foreign politicians, but it appears that he did not fare well. And while they collaborated well in the past, former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and German Member of European Parliament Doris Pack turned down Sanader's current invitations to meetings.They both clearly judged that Sanader was overly compromised by accusations that he is responsible for the major financial scandals that have been brought into connection with the administration he led, and have as a result rejected a possible meeting. Nacional has learned that Sanader was also turned down when he tried to meet with high-ranking officials in the administrations of Germany and the European Union. It was, besides, German Chancellor Angela Merkel in fact who sealed the fate of Sanader's political career in Brussels in mid June of 2009 at a meeting of the presidents of European people's and Christian democratic parties. During the discussion on Croatia and the EU (initiated because of the Slovene blockade at the time) she said, "Sanader must go." Asked by a participant of the meeting if she could elaborate her demand, she answered, "The evidence is solid and does not require discussion."

None of the leading figures of the European political parties of the right-of-centre challenged Angela Merkel and the accusations levelled against Sanader. Then and today the former Croatian Prime Minister has held on to the support of only a single prominent politician from the Union, and that is Wilfred Martens, who presides over the European People's Party in European Parliament. Besides him not a single relevant conservative politician has offered their support to Sanader when he resigned in early July of last year.

The fact that Doris Pack and Madeleine Albright chose not to meet with Sanader shows the opinion of him prevalent among top international politicians. In spite of this Sanader is not abandoning a return to politics, and in conversation with like-minded people he constantly criticises Jadranka Kosor and the policies of the current administration. In his opinion, Government is doing a very poor job of leading the country and is unable to stabilise the economic situation, and the judiciary is persecuting people who were in the HDZ in the past, such as former Deputy Prime Minister Damir Polancec and Ivan Mravak, who was the CEO of Croatian electric power company HEP. Both have been accused of financial wrongdoing and may face extended prison sentences, but there is the possibility that they will try to shift the responsibility to Sanader, as the most important person in Croatia up to last year's abdication, at their trials. There is a very high likelihood that it is, in fact, the fear of criminal prosecution that is one of the chief motives for Sanader's attempt to return to the helm of the Croatian Democratic Union.

Of those that support him it can be heard that, if he manages to take control of the HDZ once again, Sanader would be able to protect himself from possible judicial persecution for corruption. And however much the story of Sanader's intention to get back into politics seems surprising, it was confirmed some ten days ago by Luka Bebic, Speaker of Croatian Parliament, who has remained on good terms with him. Bebic is the highest ranking of Sanader's political allies, as a result of which he has been marginalised within the HDZ, but has become a sort of unofficial spokesman for the former Prime Minister. In a recent interview for the Globus weekly magazine Bebic explicitly supported a Sanader political comeback, complimenting him with the opinion that he was a "statesman", and not just a run-of-the-mill politician. He voiced the opinion that Sanader largely contributed to the democratisation of Croatia and bringing it closer to the European Union, adding that, "A politician of his calibre cannot stay out of politics for long."

Bebic also dismissed the possibility that a Sanader comeback could happen soon, saying that a negative public sentiment has been created towards that development, but did say that it could be expected when Croatia joins the EU "because there is political space for him." As his only criticism, Bebic said that Sanader erred when he decided not to run at the previous presidential elections. Bebic's public statements are not inadvertent and demonstrate that there is still an opposition in the HDZ that would like to see Jadranka Kosor fall from power, even at the cost of losing power at the national level. Besides, early this year Sanader tried to carry out a coup within the HDZ and get back into power, but the entire operation was ill-conceived and wound up as a complete debacle.
On the morning of 3 January, Sanader and several of his supporters entered the HDZ head office and organised a press conference at which it was said that the administration led by Jadranka Kosor was doing a poor job of leading the country, and called the Prime Minister's agreement with Slovenia a betrayal of national interests. Jadranka Kosor reacted very energetically, and it was only two days later that the HDZ presidency voted to expel Sanader from the party membership, giving as its reason that he had caused the HDZ damage by his public appearance. The decision to strike him from the membership registry was supported by a convincing majority of the presidency, with only Luka Bebic, Mario Zubovic and Damir Polancec voting against, and Petar Selem and Bianca Matkovic abstaining. It was also the end of their influence within the HDZ. Bebic, Selem and Zubovic lost all of their party functions, Bianca Matkovic is no longer a minister, and Polancec has been detained at Remetinec prison. The HDZ leadership was uncompromising in dealing with its long time leader and his supporters, and Sanader threatened once again when he announced the activation of his mandate as a Member of Parliament in mid January. The announcement caused quite a bit of concern in the HDZ, as there was a danger that Sanader supporters could leave the party, which would cost the ruling coalition its majority in the house and open the possibility of early elections.

SANADER'S PEOPLE Mario Zubovic and Luka Bebic remain close, but it is hard to imagine them alongside Sanader in a new attempt to take powerSanader's supporters claim to this day that their boss knew he would be thrown out of the HDZ, but was allegedly willing to sacrifice himself to point out the erroneous policies being pursued by Jadranka Kosor and her team. Had he re-activated his mandate in Parliament and obstructed Government, the HDZ would probably have fallen from power, but Sanader made the right call in judging that he too would gain nothing from it. He would definitely have been marked as the man who brought down the HDZ for selfish reasons, and the membership of the party would have never forgiven him that sort of betrayal. That is why he opted for a more conciliative solution and took the decision on his exclusion from the party membership very quietly, and even gave up his mandate to serve as a Member of Parliament. He continued, instead, to communicate regularly with his allies and endeavoured in parallel to reactivate his political connections abroad.

He has not had much success in this regard for the moment, but his plan does not involve a hurried campaign to regain power anyways. Even the current HDZ leadership has not ceased to give thought to its former leader. No one for the moment fears a Sanader comeback, but even his opponents do not reject the possibility a priori. A defeat at the elections would signal the political downfall of Jadranka Kosor, and various scenarios are possible in that event. Nobody excludes the possibility that Sanader might then appear before the membership and say "When I took over the party in 2000, the HDZ was at five percent, and under my leadership we won twice at the polls. Let's go do that a third time.

"Of late Sanader has initiated a more intensive communication with some of the press. He is particularly interested in Vecernji list, a traditionally conservative daily whose editorial concept is becoming very right wing. Vecernji list has never supported the SDP, and feels that the Jadranka Kosor administration is overly acquiescent towards the EU and weak when it comes to the economy, and Sanader feels that this high-circulation daily could support his future political programme.

The question that arises, however, is in what measure his plan to return to the Croatian political scene is realistic. Sanader was always very self-confident, and on the fringes of what psychology refers to as an ego trip. People like that are convinced that they enjoy broad public support, even when opinion polls show that they are very unpopular. After having left the post of Prime Minister without offering an explanation, Sanader very quickly found himself among the most unpopular Croatian politicians, and his rating fell further when anti-corruption operations brought to the public eye scandals strongly connected to his administration. There is no doubt that there are more people in Croatia today who believe that he should be brought to trial than those who support his return to the political arena. Those who have worked with him for a long time have confirmed that he was never overly diligent. He is characterised by patience, but in 2000 he took power in the HDZ thanks to the efforts of Branimir Glavas, Luka Bebic and Vladimir Seks, who toured the party's local branches and convinced the membership to back Sanader, and not Pasalic.

MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, the influential US diplomat and former Secretary of State allegedly turned down Sanader's request to meet with himSanader still possesses a measure of charisma, but it is an open question how voters would support him this time round. And along with all that Sanader is no longer a member of the HDZ, and his return would seem like a coup, as it would include the elimination of the entire current leadership of the ruling party. It is no longer possible to imagine a HDZ in which Sanader, Bebic and Zubovic would sit alongside Seks and Hebrang or one in which Jadranka Kosor would sit alongside Bianca Matkovic. And one should by no means disregard the statement made by Angela Merkel concerning the evidence against Sanader. Even though the German Chancellor did not explain in detail what she was referring to, a statesperson of her calibre would never make public statements without convincing evidence.

There is clearly something that definitely compromised Sanader in foreign political circles. And however ambitious he is, the question that arises is why those who initiated his departure would now support his return to political waters. But it is even harder to imagine Sanader doing nothing concrete, watching for years as Jadranka Kosor and Zoran Milanovic take alternate turns at power. From Sanader's perspective, Jadranka Kosor is incompetent, and Zoran Milanovic useless. She was his deputy and for years had to carry out his orders, and he was Milanovic's superior when they both worked in the diplomacy, after which he beat him at the elections and sent him into the opposition. People that think like Ivo Sanader want to get back into politics, and that means into power. Only two questions remain - with a new party or one more time with the HDZ?