CROATIAN GOVERNMENT needs to come up with a clear immigration policy as soon as possible in order to attract highly educated and qualified immigrants and ensure their successful integration into Croatian societyIf it wants to achieve stable economic growth over the coming two decades, Croatian Government will need, in the near future, to create the conditions necessary for the immigration of at least 100 thousand labour capable foreigners. This is the only way to somewhat mitigate the negative consequences of decades of poor demographic and economic policies over a relatively short period of time, policies that have made Croatia the European country with the lowest percentage of labour active population, only 37 percent. Another consequence of this is an exceedingly negative ratio of employed persons to pensioners of 1:1.23, and if one were also to add to this the approximately 300 thousand unemployed, it could be concluded that Croatia has an ever-dropping level of the human resources potential required to launch a new cycle of economic development and an exit from the recession.

What is more, the lack of an adequate labour force is one of the chief reasons why Croatia has failed in recent years in drawing significant foreign investment in manufacturing activities. Which is why there is no doubt that Croatia, along with a strong long term pro-natal policy, has to find a way to increase the number of labour capable people on short notice, and the easiest way to do that is to lead an active immigration policy, because the situation over the coming five years is likely to get much worse. According to a study on population projections in Croatia from 2004 to 2051 carried out by the Central Bureau of Statistics, by 2015 Croatia could have a population of almost 13 percent less than it currently has. The population from 25 to 30 years of age would be 30 percent smaller than in 2004, and there would be a significant rise in the number of people above 59 years of age, which are considered a segment of the population with low levels or a complete lack of labour activity. In this situation, it can be expected that domestic companies will seek the necessary labour force abroad, especially after Croatia liberalises its labour market upon accession to the European Union.

This scenario is, nevertheless, although certain, for the moment still a taboo topic of sorts on the domestic political scene, and the few politicians who have in the past pointed to the need to import labour, such as Radimir Cacic and Nadan Vidosevic, were subjected to harsh criticism. That is probably why to this day neither Croatian Government nor the leading opposition party, the SDP (Social Democratic Party), have a clear and articulated position on a future increase in immigration, regardless of the fact that it is a process that has in some segments of the economy and in some parts of Croatia already begun. This wave of immigrants, while largely linked to the economy, could cause massive cultural and social upheaval in the country over the coming decade, which are changes that Croatian society is largely unprepared for. According to data from public opinion polls over recent years, Croatians are numbered among the most intolerant Europeans when it comes to relations with members of other nations. According to a survey carried out by the Puls agency a few years ago, a quarter of Croatians would not like to see a person of a different race or religious affiliation in their family, and a fifth of those surveyed would also not accept a person of another nationality. This sentiment is particularly strong in the Dalmatia region, where 50 percent of those surveyed said that they do not like foreigners, which is particularly concerning given that it is a region that earns a massive proportion of its GDP from tourism. On the other hand a Nacional survey carried in 2004 indicated that almost 35 percent of Croatians have a very negative opinion of Serbs, 31 percent towards Roma, 23 percent towards Bosnians, 22 percent towards Montenegrins, and 16 percent towards Jews, and only 7 percent of those surveyed would enter into a marriage with a member of these nationalities.

DOMESTIC LABOUR HAS PRIORITY Ozren Matijasevic, the head of the Croatian Trade Union Association, feels that it is absurd to bring foreign labour into a country with 300 thousand unemployed personsThese figures can be considered the consequence of very infrequent contact Croatians have with people of other nationalities, and the same survey had 54.7 percent of those surveyed say that they have no experience living with these national groups at work, as many as 71.4 percent have no such experience in the family, and 45.7 percent in the neighbourhood. It can be concluded that Croatian society is very closed towards peoples of other nationalities, races and religious affiliations, and that Government has to date not had or implemented a serious immigration strategy, as a result of which it remains unclear what the desired profile of immigrants is for Croatia, and how these people could in a short space of time assimilate into Croatian society. The result of this approach is that today there are only 1 percent of highly educated people among the 30 or so thousand foreign nationals working and living in Croatia. And while Government issues about 6 thousand new work permits every year there continues to be a scarcity of labour force in a number of key sectors of the economy.

Croatian Government needs to come up with a clear immigration policy as quickly as possible on the basis of which it can attract as many immigrants of high levels of education and professional qualification, and at the same time secure mechanisms for their successful integration into Croatian society. This turn of events could prove a decisive condition to the launch of a new cycle of economic and social development in Croatia. It was two years ago that the president of the Croatian Chamber of Economy, Nadan Vidosevic, spoke of the necessity of importing labour. He estimated at the time that Croatia needed at least a million immigrants to improve the disproportion of pensioners and employed and to reduce the deficit in the national budget that arises as a result. Vidosevic now says that he continues to believe that it is impossible to establish a sustainable development strategy without a clear immigration policy. "Demographic policy is a key precondition of economic development in any country. In the dearth of an overall development strategy, unfortunately, no serous demographic policy could be defined in Croatia that would include an immigration policy. The consequences of this are long-term problems in financing social welfare funds, a relatively poor level of professional qualification structure in the labour active population, and so forth. With the aim of encouraging discussion about the problem the Croatian Chamber of Economy organised a conference on immigration policy four years ago to which it invited experts from countries that have had the greatest success in the area of immigration policy. Unfortunately, as I have noted, in the dearth of a development strategy this segment of immigration policy could not be defined, and by that fact alone, not achieved."

Nadan Vidosevic: the president of the Croatian Chamber of Economy feels that at least a million immigrants are needed to improve the unfavourable ratio of pensioners to employed in CroatiaVidosevic was criticised by the Croatian media for his opinion, with particularly sharp barbs directed at him by the representatives of the unions, who claimed that, by pushing for immigration Vidosevic was out to lower the cost of domestic labour and in so doing favour the interests of employers. But the head of the Croatian Trade Union Association, Ozren Matijasevic, now says that economic immigration is an answer to Croatia's real needs, needs that cannot be ignored. "We are a land of absurdities, and one of these is that we speak of immigration while we constantly have about 300 thousand unemployed. This is the result of many years of the systematic destruction of the cult of labour and of promoting the idea that prosperity can be achieved through speculative activity. The consequence of this is the present situation in which we are presented with a chronic scarcity of people of some professions. The problem is that, besides highly educated persons, we have chronic lack of specialised workers. An example of this is shipbuilding, were we import workers with lower qualifications. It is incomprehensible that we cannot educate these people ourselves, if it is in fact a strategic branch of the Croatian economy. But, if we cannot, in fact, educate them ourselves, then it is better to bring them in from abroad than to see development stop as a result of a lack of labour force." The data the Interior Ministry has are confirmation of the poor educational structure of immigrants in Croatia.

Just in the first six months of last year 2,500 foreign construction workers were employed, of which 631 bricklayers, 453 carpenters, 199 welders and 182 rebar workers. A further 160 work permits were issued to persons employed in tourism, and Croatia has imported 30 crop farmers and 25 shepherds. On the other hand the number of highly educated immigrants is very low. Only ten work permits were issue all of last year for doctors, three MA pharmacists and one chiropractor, while the Interior Ministry has issued one work permit each for the professions of ballet and violin instructor and a special education therapist. And while Government claims that annual quotas for immigrant work permits are based on the needs of the real economy, official data does not reflect this. In 2008, for example, the Interior Ministry approved only 25 new permits for IT technicians, even though it is one of the most deficient professions in Croatia.

What is more, according to research currently being undertaken by Sanja Crnkovic Pozaic, the former head of the Croatian Employment Service, it is in fact in electrical engineering and computing that there is a demographic scarcity of labour, as more people are entering retirement than those receiving an education. If a growth in demand is added to this, as computer technology is increasingly applied in sectors of the economy where there was once no need for it, such as in agriculture, the shortage of IT technicians in Croatia is growing from day to day. But the state is not reacting to these needs with a change in immigration policy, or of the domestic education system, which is an enormous problem for the economy. Sanja Crnkovic Pozaic says that Croatia should give thought to its immigration policy, and to its own workers. "It would be good if the issue was a simple one, but it is not. It is the state above all that should give thought to its workers, and to see how it can assist immigrations in some segments. Orienting oneself only towards immigrants and neglecting domestic potential can be considered the 'line of least resistance,' which is not the best solution. An example of this is Montenegro, which has completely liberalised is labour market, and now has more workers from abroad than unemployed.

Ljubo Jurcic: former candidate for the job of prime minister says that a model needs to be found to put hundreds of thousands of labour capable, but pensioned, people back to workBut, on the other hand, it is not easy to attract highly educated and trained immigrants. There is global competition for these people, and in my opinion it can be achieved through good projects and centres of excellence. The question is to what extent is Croatia capable of this and how much accession to the European Union will affect this. We have, namely, up to now already been open to citizens of Bulgaria and Romania, and there were no significant effects." The conclusion drawn by Ms. Crnkovic Pozaic concerning the global competition for highly educated immigrants is correct. Aging populations are, namely, one of the most significant problems faced by the countries of the EU and the USA. Forecasts have it that there will be twice as many persons over the age of 65 than those under 15 in Europe by 2030, and the ratio of labour active towards labour passive will amount to 2.4:1. There is a similar problem in Asia - this year Japan has 3 million workers less than it did in 2005, and there are unfavourable demographic trends in Korea and China, which will in twenty years have the same number of people over 65 as it does those aged under 15.

Many countries will endeavour to improve their demographic balance in the coming period through immigration, and there will be a particularly sharp struggle to attract highly educated people. There are now, namely, some 200 million people in the world in constant migration, and almost 75 percent of all immigrant populations are received by 28 countries. The greatest number of migrants originate from China, India and the Philippines, and every third migrant winds up in Europe, the most desirable continent when it comes to employment, and every fourth goes to the USA. In these circumstances Croatia has to be very painstaking in drafting a strategy to attract foreign workers of the professions and references it needs. Nevertheless, while it is the desire of most developed Western countries to attract highly educated and young workers, the fact is that there is now in Croatia also a significant scarcity of lower qualified workers in some labour intensive sectors of the economy.

According to the data of the Croatian Employment Service almost a third of employment opportunities in the first six months of this year were for physical labour jobs, and less in commercial and various trades. It is clear that there is currently a massive disproportion between the knowledge Croatians receive in the national education service and the real needs of the economy. As a result some economists feel that the state should not intensify its immigration policy until it activates the human potential it already has. Former SDP candidate for the job of prime minister, Ljubo Jurcic, feels that the country needs to find a model that would put hundreds of thousands of labour capable people who have been retired over the past decade back to work. "The fact is that there has been a shortage of some 500 thousand jobs in Croatia for some forty years now. The problem is that a greater number of unemployed persons today do not meet the needs of the economy with their capabilities and professions, but that is no reason to abandon them and replace them with workers from abroad. We need, then, to find projects and investments to make use of this potential, and of those in retirement who could still work.

Former head of the Croatian Centre for Employment Sanja Crnkovic Pozaic opposes an orientation only towards immigrantsWe need a system that will make work pay off more than early retirement. That is not easy, but if we are to abandon all of these citizens to permanent unemployment, and on the other hand bring in new labour from abroad, we need to ask ourselves if we are a country at all." Immigration therefore should not be a replacement for efforts to find jobs for a growing number of Croatians now out of work, but on the other hand it is undeniable that a precisely planned and implemented cycle of immigration could enrich Croatia with people possessing new knowledge and skills that create new value. An example of this effect is the USA, the most active country in the world in terms of immigration. It is in fact a strong immigration cycle that is deemed to be the chief reason why the USA has had better demographics over the past twenty years and greater GDP growth than the countries of the European Union. A half of the total number of researchers in the USA are foreign students and immigrants. In 2006, forty percent of all doctoral degrees in the natural and technical sciences, and 65 percent in computer science were in fact awarded to persons of foreign extraction. It was estimated then that this year they will have passed the mark of fifty percent of all doctoral degrees in all professions in the USA, and 75 percent in those related to technical sciences, and it is pointed out in particular that a half of the new companies in the Silicon Valley are being set up by immigrants or their first generation descendants.

Immigrants are now the chief generator of American scientific and innovative technological development, and it can be assumed on this basis that Croatia too could profit in this fashion. But for this to happen, Government must set clear criteria about what profile of people Croatia needs, and that is difficult without an underlying economic strategy. Jakov Gelo, a professor at the University of Zagreb's Faculty of Economics & Business, says that Croatia has to try at the same time to prevent the brain drain of its own people to foreign countries. "Croatia cannot resolve its demographic problem through immigration, but it will be one of the ways to quickly resolve the problem of a lack of workers in certain specific professions in Croatia. This, besides, is not an issue of national policy - with the opening of the labour market companies will meet the needs for labour they cannot cover in Croatia in the wider region and that is something that the state cannot directly influence. But the state has to find a way in which to hold on to its quality workforce so that it does not happen, for example, that good Croatian doctors leave to work in developed countries, and we make up the difference by bringing in doctors from abroad. We need, then, to hold on to all of our human resources potential and try to cover a lack of professionals in deficient sectors with quality labour from abroad. That has to be the goal of our overall migration policy."

In 2008 more foreign shepherds and crop farm workers were employed in Croatia than all highly educated workersA significant part of this policy should be a programme of the social integration of immigrants, i.e. developing a positive attitude towards foreign immigrants among Croatian citizens. This awareness is currently at a very low level, which was demonstrated a few years ago with the problem of lodging asylum seekers in Croatia. The problem remained unresolved for years, and in the period from 1997 to 2007 Croatia received over 550 various requests for asylum, none of which were approved. And while the systematic resolution of the problem of asylum seekers in Croatia began in June of 2003, when Croatian Parliament voted in asylum legislation, the problem was that the competent bodies were for years unable to find a location at which to open a receiving centre for asylum seekers. The initial location was in the settlement of Rugvica near Ivanja Reka, but the local population, having learned of the idea, expressed their opposition, bordering on the xenophobic outbursts of some of the locals who said vocally that they did not want "dangerous foreign criminals" in their neighbourhood, which is the result of a lack of comprehension and knowledge of who the refugees seeking sanctuary in Croatia are. As the opposition of the local population was too great, the Ministry of the Interior, responsible for the issue, decided to find a new location, in Stubicka Slatina. The people living there also complained, and the situation in Slatina culminated in the autumn of 2004, when former Interior Minister Marijan Mlinaric send a personal letter to the about two hundred homes in Stubicka Slatina in which he tried to explain that a receiving centre for asylum seekers would not pose absolutely any kind of danger to the local population.

After a few days however it became clear that, besides the questionable trepidations and xenophobia of the local population, local politics had gotten involved in the matter. Some local politicians had made the effort to visit all of the locals and convince them to oppose the construction of a receiving centre, and just a week after having sent his letter Minister Mlinaric received a package containing all two hundred of his letters sent to the people of Slatina. It was a symbolic demonstration of the opposition that the people of Slatina had to the idea of building a receiving centre in their neighbourhood. If we add to this the devastating results of the surveys on tolerance of persons of other nationalities, races and religious affiliations, it can be concluded that Croatian citizens at this point in time could hardly accept the immigration of a hundred thousand foreigners. Nevertheless, this could happen over the coming decade, and its consequences will depend on what Croatian Government does. If it is the result of a clear and well thought out strategy it could result in new economic and social growth in Croatia.