Published in Nacional number 730, 2009-11-10

Autor: Robert Bajruši

ZORAN MILANOVIC'S dangerous games

From a promising kid to a political clown

THE DECISION OF SDP PRESIDENT Zoran Milanovic that his party not support the arbitration agreement with Slovenia threatens to delay Croatian accession to the European Union until 2014, when it would join in a package with Serbia

CROATIA THREATENED Zoran Milanovic's games with the agreement can only be compared to the putschist tendencies demonstrated by the HDZ in 2001CROATIA THREATENED Zoran Milanovic's games with the agreement can only be compared to the putschist tendencies demonstrated by the HDZ in 2001If Zoran Milanovic continues to refuse to support the ratification of the arbitration agreement with Slovenia he will be responsible for stopping Croatia's negotiations with the European Union. And while some of the party leadership feel that a deal will be worked out with the Jadranka Kosor Government by the middle of next week, securing the required two thirds majority in Parliament, Milanovic remains convinced that the agreement is a shoddy one and should be rejected regardless of the consequences.

And the main consequence in that case will be a long-term halt on the negotiations between Croatia and the European Union and an almost certain delay to Croatian accession to the EU. This is one of the most important moments in modern Croatian history, and the president of the SDP is behaving like he does not grasp this fact. The SDP's decision doubtless depends only on Milanovic, and had he backed the arbitration agreement he would have been followed by the vast majority of MP's. Now everything has been brought into question, and the complication of the situation is largely the result of an ego trip and the idea that the president of the SDP is the only person on the Croatian political scene that understands what Croatia's national interests are.


And what Zoran Milanovic and the SDP are doing is, in fact, gambling with Croatia's national interests, the likes of which we have not seen since 2001, when Ivo Sanader and the HDZ threatened to undertake a coup d'état. A putsch was averted in the last moment, but because of the right-wing radicals of the time the start of negotiations between Croatia and the EU were put off for several years. One of the worst moves by what was then the opposition was to bring down the Racan-Drnovsek agreement, a prescient decision by the then SDP Prime Minister, who was accused of being a traitor for his effort to resolve the dispute with Slovenia. The policies being led by the current Milanovic-led SDP is a de facto continuation of the right wing positions from the start of the decade and a renouncement of Ivica Racan's legacy. If one did not know who has said what in Parliament during the debate on the agreement with Slovenia, the arguments put forth by the SDP deputies could easily be attributed to former HDZ MP's. And it is Milanovic that is responsible for the current 180-degree change of heart, as he has persevered in his opposition ever since the agreement was announced.

And one cannot speak of the opposition here, because the HNS and the IDS have backed the agreement, as has President Stipe Mesic. On the far bank now there is only Zoran Milanovic, who shares his position with Branimir Glavas' HDSSB and right-wingers such as Davorin Rudolf, Ivan Zvonimir Cicak, Milan Vukovic and the clero-rightist gang gathered around Iustitia et pax. The tactical manoeuvring being led by the SDP could easily halt Croatian accession to the European Union for two years and delay it to 2014 by the earliest, when Serbia might join. It is possible that the SDP president changes his mind in the meantime as there have been attempts to arrange a trip to Brussels and a meeting with the President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso, where Milanovic wants to seek guarantees that the arbitration tribunal that will decide on the Croatian-Slovenian border at sea will be composed of established legal experts. For the moment, Milanovic's chief objection is that the European Commission is proposing some mid-ranked bureaucrats as arbiters, who lack the competence to deal with major border disputes. It is not known what he intends to do if the answers he receives do not satisfy him, but as things now stand, the head of the SDP is ready to reject the ratification, even if it puts Croatia in a tremendously poor international position.

As an argument in favour of so risky a policy, he cites that Slovenia intends to hold an advisory referendum, and that Croatia therefore has no cause to rush into its ratification. This position is in direct contradiction with the opinions of numerous diplomats, who are convinced that in the event of a ratification Croatia would gain a massive strategic advantage over Slovenia. The Slovenians would then - if they reject the agreement - definitely earn the epithet of "troublemakers" and would be subjected to strong pressure from the European Union and the USA. Something similar, but of much lesser intensity, Borut Pahor's administration experienced earlier this spring when, as a result of pressure from Washington and Brussels it was forced to back down an allow Croatian accession to NATO. On the other hand, if the 56 SDP Members of Parliament refuse to ratify the agreement next week, it will be Croatia that will find itself in a blockade. It would probably lose credibility and in that case it is an open question when the talks would continue. The question of whether Croatia enters the EU in 2012 is a strategic one. Accession to the EU has been brought into question by petty tactical manoeuvring, and in part by Milanovic's personal animosity towards Jadranka Kosor.

BORUT PAHOR met with Zoran Milanovic in Zagreb on 26 October, but did not give statements to the press afterwardsBORUT PAHOR met with Zoran Milanovic in Zagreb on 26 October, but did not give statements to the press afterwardsEven Hannes Swoboda failed to sway Milanovic, who appealed to the SDP not to reject the agreement with Slovenia. Swoboda is described in the SDP as a "mere deputy in European Parliament," regardless of the fact that this is for at least two reasons quite incorrect. Above all because he is the rapporteur for Croatia, which gives him quite a bit of political clout, and because Hannes Swoboda is a friend both to Croatia and the SDP. Because of his support for Croatia in the dispute with Slovenia a few years ago he suffered much criticism from Ljubljana, and as a leftist Milanovic is certainly closer to his heart than Jadranka Kosor. That is why disparaging Swoboda's appeal is a poor decision for the Croatian Social Democrats. Milanovic feels that it is inadmissible that bureaucrats in the offices of José Manuel Barroso and Olli Rehn decide on the composition of the arbitration body. This pertains in particular to Rehn who will not in the future be a member of the European Commission, as a result of which his opinion is relatively unimportant. In discussion with two of his allies within the SDP Nacional was given assurances that they will in the end vote in favour of the ratification of the agreement with Slovenia.

"We are not so naïve as to stop Croatian accession to the European Union, but we could not consent to the dictate of Jadranka Kosor, and as a result abstained. But at the key moment, we will vote in favour, and believe that Zoran Milanovic will do the same," they told Nacional. Unlike them, Milanovic last weekend continued to insist that it was a "shoddy agreement," and that "Stipe Mesic and Jadranka Kosor are in the wrong to support it, but the SDP cannot consent to it." It is interesting that a few days ahead of last week's vote in Croatian Parliament the SDP members were not against the agreement. And while the SDP deputies were almost unanimous, with a few votes against, in their abstention during the vote on the agreement with Slovenia, and fiercely criticised the Kosor Government during the debate, there was a different mood in the ranks of the strongest opposition party just a few days earlier. This is how things unfolded. On Monday 26 October, Borut Pahor came to Zagreb and met with Zoran Milanovic. Pahor gave Milanovic his own take on the Slovenian-Croatian dispute, and probably showed him the document, but they were not willing to give statements to the press afterwards.

Two days later, Jadranka Kosor called for a session of Parliament and a vote on the agreement, which was then passed on to the press by high-ranking politicians. Parallel to this informal consultations were launched within the SDP on whether the agreement should be supported or not. On Friday 30 October, Milanovic gathered a dozen of the more prominent MP's, who gave their opinions of the bilateral document in the discussion, with those in favour carrying the day - the agreement was supported by Tonino Picula, Slavko Linic, Zeljka Antunovic and Neven Mimica, and the others were not against. And while no official conclusion was made, it was assumed that this would be the platform for the vote that was announced for Monday, 2 November. But in his statement for the press Milanovic was quite ambiguous and sought an apology from Jadranka Kosor because the HDZ had previously opposed the Racan-Drnovsek agreement. She did not, of course, offer an apology, nor was that to have been expected, although she did in Parliament indirectly admit that she had erred in the past, not comprehending what her predecessors Ivica Racan and Ivo Sanader had had to deal with. Milanovic's opponents within the party claimed then that he had said off the record that "while I am president of the SDP we will not support this kind of agreement."

It was a continuation of internal strife, as most of the MP's on hand for a meeting of the club of SDP deputies were against backing the agreement, and to avoid an open division this was accepted by Mimica, Picula, Zeljka Antunovic and the others who were in favour of voting yea. In spite of attacks against the arbitration agreement and their abstentions in the voting, the SDP deputies are all but unified behind this issue. Some are a priori against the agreement, either because they are from Istria, or because they have adopted a hard-line nationalist rhetoric and are now joining Branimir Glavas' people in grousing about a betrayal of national interests. Most of the Members of Parliament are sticking to a middle ground and feel that they demonstrated a firm position at the previous session of Parliament, and are now ready to back down, arguing that the SDP has, unlike the HDZ, never worked against an European future for Croatia, and should vote for the ratification. And while Milanovic picked up over 80 percent of the vote at the last party convention, today's SDP is deeply divided and disunited and it is only their animosity towards the HDZ that holds them together. A part of the older membership never really accepted Racan's successor, and as far as character goes, Milanovic is also not a person that gathers partners to his side.

Over the past two and a half years he has surrounded himself with a group of 30-year-olds who even annoy most of Milanovic's allies, and at the same time there is quite a list of those with whom he has come at odds with or severed most contacts with, from the one-time candidate for the post of Prime Minister Ljubo Jurcic and older members like Sime Lucin and Marin Jurcevic, to a large part of the SDP presidency. Unlike the SDP of Ivica Racan's time, today's SDP has no sensibility for leftists and intellectuals outside the party and people like Boris Labar, Zvonko Makovic, Vjeran Zuppa and a dozen public figures of leftist-liberal orientation who used to collaborate actively with the SDP are no longer active. That he is unable to restrain himself from attacking his opponents Milanovic showed by his poor form when he recently, at a session of the party's Central Committee, said that he had been attacked in a daily newspaper because the editor-in-chief of the paper had in the past collaborated with the former Yugoslavia's UDB secret service.

RACAN AND DRNOVSEK The most farsighted leaders in regard to bilateral relations Croatia and Slovenia have had in the recent pastRACAN AND DRNOVSEK The most farsighted leaders in regard to bilateral relations Croatia and Slovenia have had in the recent pastThis kind of defamation was last heard from Franjo Tudman, and are now expounded from time to time only by the right-wing Glas koncila in the commentaries signed by Ivan Miklenic. The strong antagonisms present in the SDP have one again broken through to the surface at last week's session of the party presidency, which Primorje-Gorski kotar County Prefect Zlatko Komadina quit after an altercation. It was the culmination of the mutual intolerance in which on the one side there is Milanovic and his backers, and on the other, Komadina, Zeljka Antunovic, Zvonimir Mrsic and ever more Tonino Picula and Milanka Opacic. Also here recently was Milan Bandic, who has in the meantime been chucked out of the SDP. Several participants of the session have confirmed for Nacional that no one expected any significant squabbles, much less an altercation and the demonstrative departure of Zlatko Komadina. Milanovic has for some time now felt that Komadina is playing some game of his in the party and is out to undermine his authority. He had much the same feeling about a press conference at which the Primorje-Gorski kotar County Prefect spoke critically about the situation in Zagreb and set a kind of equidistance between Milan Bandic and the Zagreb SDP that has opposes the mayor. Komadina's opinion irritated Milanovic, and he brought his top people in the party's Zagreb branch, Deputy Mayor Ivo Jelusic and the President of City Council Boris Sprem.

The start of the session was, however, dedicated to the upcoming presidential elections, and Milanka Opacic attacked Ivo Josipovic for voting against the agreement with Slovenia, instead of abstaining like the other SDP MP's. The gist of what she said can be boiled down to a warning that the SDP candidate could fare poorly at the upcoming elections. Vojko Obersnel then took the floor and stated his view that the agreement should have been supported, and was followed by Komadina who reproached the SDP leadership for a poor state of affairs in the party and that they have spent too much time dealing with the Bandic issue. Sprem, Milanovic and Jelusic answered his questions, but Komadina ignored their arguments and insisted that they had botched things up. By then the atmosphere was very charged and Milanovic censured him for statements made to the Novi List daily, and when Komadina continued to criticise (here the statements of the participant vary, some say he swore, other that he did not), Milanovic retorted saying "Zlatko, you will not behave like this here. If you mean to continue, the exit doors are there."

Komadina got up and left the room at that point, with Milanka Opacic attempting to console him in the hallway. When the feathers had settled Zeljka Antunovic took the floor, saying that she was unhappy that Bandic had left the SDP, after which she too left, explaining that she had to be at reception organised by the Ericsson-Nikola Tesla company. Her actions further irritated Milanovic. The culmination of it all came the following day when there were reports from the press that Komadina, Tonino Picula, Milanka Opacic, Zeljka Antunovic and Dusan Ljustina, Milan Bandic's closest confidante, had met in the nearby Hole in One pub after the meeting of the party presidency. And while Komadina, Picula and Opacic denied that there was any plotting going on in writing, the relationship between them and Milanovic has been deeply undermined. This trio, Zeljka Antunovic and Zvonimir Mrsic feel that the Milanovic is doing a poor job of leading the SDP and has by his behaviour caused divisions and rifts within the party, while the president of the Social Democrats for his part feels that his opponents are incompetent politicians for whom politics is the only source of income.

The problem is that they have all been elected by the party convention, and however much they share a mutual intolerance toward one another, which was somehow concealed - they are forced to share the same table. But it all increasingly broaches the question of how long this status quo can continue within the SDP, where the relationships within the leadership are quite poor. Milanovic and his supporters are convinced that his old nemesis Zeljka Antunovic, who has been colluding with Bandic the past months, to the detriment of Ivo Josipovic, is behind the press reports of a poor state of affairs in the SDP. From this point of view it is not Milanka Opacic, Picula, or even Komadina that pose the true threat, but Zeljka Antunovic does, and she now wants to seize control of the Zagreb branch of the SDP. In this, allegedly, she has the support of Bandic's people in the Zagreb organisation, and they are to secure her victory over her opponents Ivo Jelusic and Davor Bernardic. And there is, of course, no lack of activity in the Zeljka Antunovic camp, and they have launched a serious counter-accusation that Milanovic has told some associates that, if Bandic does become the country's president and resigns the post of mayor, he would postpone elections within the Zagreb SDP. That means that Milanovic would personally appoint an SDP nominee for the post of Zagreb mayor, and in the event of his turn of events Zeljka Antunovic has indicated she would openly oppose him. And while none of them liked Bandic, it was only his departure from the SDP that has set the stage for a final rift in which the losers will be eliminated from the political scene. A possible scenario for the events unfolding within the SDP is very similar to what happened seven-eight years ago in the HDZ.

Related articles

IVO SANADER IN FRONT OF PARLIAMENT with Mario Zubovic (left), one of the eight Members of Parliament on whose loyalty he can count

Sanader’s eight fear SDP — Won’t bring down Government

Despite forecasts that he would, former Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader, who recently took his seat in Parliament, will not work from the house… Više