The impossible formation of a stable government or an election situation where either the left or right coalition will not have a majority in Parliament, which is foreseen by the recent public opinion poll, might bring about the most spectacular political turn around since Croatia became independent: a coalition between HDZ and SDP. Nacional discovered that several politicians in HDZ and SDP, while looking at different things such as the pre-election scenario, informally spoke about the possibility of a coalition between the two parties. Nacional spoke with leading politicians in HDZ and SDP and concluded that most of them do not discard the possibility of a red-black coalition. This was discussed in the closest circles but not at the top because it is still too early and too dangerous to discuss. That is why the possibility of a large coalition between HDZ and SDP is the largest pre-election taboo topic. Understandable: this announcement could take away votes from both parties and create tension between members of the parties, while giving other parties the motive to accuse them of collaboration and deceit. Most citizens, especially voters, and members of HDZ and SDP and political parties would experience this idea as a vulgar political violation. Taking into account Croatia’s political past, this does seem like a political blasphemy and betrayal; the red-black coalition would not be far from that sort of political bogus as it seems in the beginning: it might be the only exit, and safeguard from political instability that could occur in the country. Because most parties do not have a serious chance at entering Parliament because of the close election results, Croatia will enter a period of long term political turbulence, temporary elections, and constant changes in the government. In that case, there would be no protection from economic and political unrest which would mean gambling with the most important task of this generation: entering the European Union. In the conditions of political conflict and economic insecurity, not one coalition will be able to deal with fulfilling conditions for entrance into the EU and NATO pact. Only a coalition between SDP and HDZ will stop such a dark situation. Even though an alliance between HDZ and SDP will, of course, contains a range of dangerous traps and bad political consequences, they will be overshadowed by three goals that the coalition can achieve: bring Croatia into the EU, secure political and economic stability, and make decisive steps in breaking up the historic division in Croatian society. There is no doubt that the two strongest parties, with a stable majority, would carry out the necessary reforms easiest and quickest.

Different to most of Croatian citizens and political parties, the EU and USA would surely welcome cooperation between HDZ and SDP: the door to the EU and NATO pact would be opened because it would mean that the two strongest parties in Croatia would achieve a consensus with these two key goals. There are also arguments that go along with the formation of a large coalition between HDZ and SDP. In political and ideological ways, HDZ is not as black as in the past and SDP has not been as red for a long time. In some elements, HDZ is even a more modern party. If SDP could cooperate with HSS for four years, why would they not be able to with reformed HDZ which is more modern than HSS in several segments? And we are not even speaking about the comparison between Ivo Sanader and Zlatko Tomčić. It is certain that cooperation between SDP and HDZ would be less traumatic than a coalition between SDP and HSS, or HDZ and HSS. Ivo Sanader and Ivica Račan are connected because both have similar political goals: Croatia’s entrance into EU and transformation of their parties into right and left center.

The leaders of HDZ and SDP have one more strong reason to sit at the negotiation table after the elections: that will be the only method to free themselves of harsh pressure, and blackmail potential coalition partners. Due to the close election results, the appetites of HSLS, DC and HSP, as well as HSS and HNS are so large that they overwhelm that which HDZ and SDP are prepared to give. Until now, for example, it was believed that the only questionable party found in the left or right wing political wings was HSS. The statement by Miroslav Rožić, the vice president of HSP, that his party is prepared to cooperate with everyone including SDP without any political or ideological scruples and will choose the party that offers the most attractive function shows this desire. A similar warning came from the president of DC, Mate Granić when he announced that his party would rather stay in the opposition than enter a coalition that would not take into account their programs and requests. Dražen Budiša also created a warning sign in advance that his party would be a difficult coalition party in the end; it is clear that Ivo Sanader and HDZ will deal with various difficulties if a coalition is formed between the party and HSLS, DC and HSP. I will be more difficult for Ivica Račan: he has not idea where the borders of ambition are for Zlatko Tomčić, and Vesna Pusić is at his throat warning him that HNS’s political requests need to be recognized because there will be no cooperation without it. SDP and HDZ have found themselves in such a position for two reasons: because the public opinion polls show that there will not be enough Parliamentary representatives to dictate their coalition conditions. Also, potential partners are being revengeful because they are refusing to sign pre-election coalition agreements with them.
LS and HNS, in a coalition with HSLS-DC ,as well as HSP are convinced that Sanader and Račan did not want to form pre-election agreements because it would mean that they would have their hands tied before the election. In their opinion, Račan and Sanader have left room from all forms of combinations, not only within the left and right block. Precisely said: for a large red-black coalition.

Sanader and Račan equally loathe discussions with Zlatko Tomčić. Both, however, are convinced that Tomčić is the hungriest partner that will blackmail them to starvation. That is why they are trying to avoid that in every way. Tomčić is, however, Račan’s destiny. Without him, Račan has no hope of staying in government. Tomčić’s announcement that he no longer wants to be president of Parliament, and that HSS can have the Premier position after the elections, is a clear warning for Račan: in the case that HSS has better election results, Tomčić will request the position of Premier. Among other things, a serious operation will follow: Tomčić has already requested strengthening of the position for the president of Parliament in order to lure Račan into the position and get rid of the competition for president of the Government. Knowing that Tomčić would drive him crazy in the same way, Sanader hopes that he will not have to deal with HSS. If he manages to avoid Tomčić, he will not be able to avoid Dražen Budiša. Just as Tomčić is Račan’s problem, that is what Budiša is to Sanader. That is why Sanader fears HSLS: he knows that it will be especially difficult to negotiate with Budiša because of his political exclusion. Sanader will in all ways attempt to avoid a coalition with HSP: he knows that cooperating with Ante Đapić, even though he has attempted to change his reputation, will destroy the position that he has achieved among European conservatives and nationalists.

It is difficult to imagine, and even more difficult to force cooperation, for example, between Andrije Hebranga and Ivan Ninić, Zdenka Babić Petričević and Milanko Opačić, or even Marin Jurjević and Dubravka Šuica. All of them, in the case of a coalition between HDZ and SDP, would leave their parties. That is how the cooperation between HDZ and SDP would speed up the process of transformation between the two parties in parties focusing on the political center: HDZ and SDP would manage to rid themselves of their own political radicals. They would also make room for clearer definition between other left and right wing parties. While it is unreal to expect a truce between Hebranga and Ninić, cooperation between Ivo Sanader and Ivica Račan, Vladimir Šeks and Mate Arlović, Tonino Picula and Miomir Žužul, Šime Lučin and Ivan Jarnjak, Antun Vujić and Božidar Biškupić, Milan Bandić and Jadranka Kosor is imaginable… It is also completely logical to expect, as realistic and pragmatic politicians, that the recognized results of the elections, Sanader and Račan will be able to discuss whether Sanader will become Premier, and Račan president of the Parliament, or will Sanader spend 3 or 2.5 years as Premier, while Račan has the position for 1.5 years.

HDZ and SDP will most energetically publicly reject the idea of a mutual coalition because it could have negative results for their pre-election campaign. However, when the votes are counted, the situation will change. Of course, it is easy to be unrealistic: HDZ and SDP do not aspire for a mutual coalition because they know how risky and dangerous the connection could be. It could create rebellion and hearsay in the parties and dissatisfaction of the public. And looking at the political and ideological world views of the coalition between HDZ and SDP it is not their political goal. However, if there will be no other exit, and if it appears to be a historical necessity, the leaders of the two parties will need to look at the responsibility they have in the country’s fate and find a solution together. They will nee to have many excuses because it is not dealing with a strategic partnership or a conspiracy against democracy, it is finding a solution and coalition for a one time only deal: until they enter the EU and NATO pact.

Austria has had the longest experience with a large red-black coalition in Europe. The right wing OVP, the Austrian national party, and the SPO, the left socialist party, have cooperated with only one small break since the end of World War II until the middle of the 1990’s. That coalition was created to stabilize political and economic opportunities in Austria after the fall of fascism, and implement a national consensus for denationalization of the country. They completely succeeded in that and the Austrian red-black coalition quickly created political stability, and the economic prosperity of the country. Two politicians in European format, long term presidents of the government, Bruno Kreyskog and Franz Vranytzkog, arose. Due to the length of power of the coalition, everything completely fell apart and the result has been the growth of popularity for Jorge Heider, a right extremist.