At the European Union meeting to be held in Dublin on 17-18 June, Croatia will most likely not receive the date for the beginning of its negotiations on EU accession. “No one can say with complete certainty when Croatia will receive this date, but if I were to make a bet, I would say it is 70:30 that it will happen in December. We have become a hostage to the relations ruling within the EU, and there is a special fear in Brussels concerning the accession of Turkey. Therefore, it would appear that the European diplomats have concluded that a ‘yes’ to Croatia and a ‘no’ to Turkey could arouse significant problems in the largest Muslim country in Europe. They will continue to hold us on ice until the end of the year, and likely set the negotiation start date in December.” These were the comments made almost unanimously by several diplomatic sources for Nacional. Though Croatia will receive candidate status in Dublin this June, the fact that the negotiation start date will not be set until the end of the year has put Premier Ivo Sanader into a difficult position. Sanader has made EU accession his political priority and every delay in the negotiation start date could have negative consequences on his ruling party. That is, the repercussions of a six month delay are exceptionally serious: in that case, negotiations would not begin until the spring of next year, which means that the best case scenario is that Croatia could become an EU member state in 2009. This postponement of 2 years – as until recently it was widely believed that Croatia would enter together with Bulgaria and Romania in 2007 – in no way suits the current government. Their calculations were clear: had they succeeded in joining these two countries and completing the task in 2007, that would have been a huge success which would secure HDZ a powerful win at the next parliamentary elections.

In this way, the entire process is being drawn out for another two years, which puts the government into an awkward position. To a great extent, there success will depend on the results of their economic policies, and in that sense, analysts are not optimistic. The strong economic growth of the former government has significantly slowed, unemployment is about the same as last year, and the Sunčani Hvar affair has again reminded us of HDZ’s way of privatizing companies. In the social sphere, the passing of the new Veteran’s Act has been postponed, and the debt owed to pensioners will have to wait at least another two years. Under such circumstances, the Sanader administration will need international success such as a speedy entry into the EU, however, such an optimistic outcome is unrealistic.

“Europe has had enough enlargement, at least for the time being,” stated a diplomatic source, adding that there is no chance for Croatia to enter before 2009. If the negotiation date is set in December, then they will begin one to two months after and last for a minimum of two and a half years. Like the other new members, Croatia will have to fulfill the conditions documented on 80,000 pages of text which took Slovakia, as a country which completed the task quite quickly, three full years. That means that all the terms could be met by 2007, and after that, we have to wait for the ratification of the accession agreement by all 25 members of the Union, which takes at least one year. In other words, if the current of future government shows maximum efficiency, then the elections for the European Parliament will be held in Croatia in 2009. If the current quota of parliamentary representatives remains in effect, then the first generation of Croatian Euro-parliamentarians will include 12 or 13 representatives.

In the meantime, the leading members of the HDZ government will spend the next three weeks planning a strong diplomatic campaign in order to succeed in receiving the negotiation start date at the June Summit in Dublin. The main role will be held by Croatia’s top diplomat Miomir Žužul, who is off to Belgrade on Friday, and then onto bilateral meetings in Spain and Italy. These are important countries whose lobbying could certainly help Croatia, though the chances are relatively small. Though many have assessed that Italy could cause problems in the government, they believe that the good relationship between Sanader and Silvio Berlusconi is a guarantee that in the end, Rome will support Croatia. Sanader is also to meet with Chris Patton, NATO General Secretary Jaap de Hoop Schaeffer and German Foreign Minister Joscko Fischer. Proof of how important it is to receive the negotiation date now is seen in the fact that Sanader recently sent a letter to all the EU Premiers requesting that they positively respond to Croatia’s request. Though Sanader loves to present himself as having good relations with most of the European politicians, that appears to not be enough for his government’s diplomatic success. At least four countries have expressed their skepticism towards Croatia and there is little chance that their opinions will change prior to the Council of Ministers. With all that, the frequently repeated thesis that the HDZ government is much closer to foreign diplomats than under Ivica Račan is weak. Even then, Croatian diplomats were well received, except concerning the escapades with the Hague Tribunal, and again Croatia’s access to the Union was slowed. Even a segment of the important European officials such as Javier Solana and Chris Patton were very interested in having the former coalition government remain in power. Several months before the elections, Tonino Picula was in New York at the session of the UN, and during the pause, he was approached by Patten who asked the then head of Croatian diplomacy “How can I help you?” Despite his concern, Račan and Picula were defeated and it is now up to Sanader and Žužul to bring Croatia into the EU.

However, not even these meetings and lobbying will secure a positive resolution to Croatia’s top international priority. Some diplomats believe that it is no coincidence that Great Britain is the greatest supporter of Turkey’s entry into the EU, as Euro-skepticism is highest there. The British are well aware of how the majority of Europeans resent them for accepting Turkey and its 70 million citizens. Head of the Bavarian CSU Edmund Stoiber last week resolutely opposed Turkey’s entry into the EU, and the majority of Europe’s conservatives share this view. On the other hand, there is a fear that definitely rejecting Turkey’s request could strengthen the anti-European inclinations in that country, which is why their request has been put on hold in Brussels. Such a situation directly affects Croatia’s interests, as a segment of the European politicians believe that support for Croatia would be a direct insult for Turkey. Furthermore, there is a reason that Croatian diplomats will not say openly, but they are convinced that it is founded. “If you take a look at who is not in support of Croatia, you will see that those are primarily protestant countries such as Great Britain, Holland and the Scandinavian countries. This is not an issue of religious animosity, but a protestant precision that seeks that the conditions be met to the fullest. We don’t need to think that they are on our side, even when positive assessments come from London, and the Netherlands ratified our SAA in their parliament,” stated one diplomat. This diplomat also commented on last week’s statement by Czech Premier Vladimir Špidle that his county would block Croatia’s accession to the EU because of the Western Balkans, assessing it to be amateuristic, but also significant. The Czech Republic has no interested tied to Croatia and this region, and it also falls into the smaller member states that are not in a position to influence important decisions. Therefore, some diplomats believe that Špidle was doing the work of a larger country whose representatives did not want to criticize Croatia openly and to recall that in the past, the Czech diplomats commented on issues that they had absolutely nothing to do with, like the fate of the Cuban dissidents.

Another Croatian problem could be the repercussions of the entry of the ten new member states. The majority of these countries are led by politicians not prone to compromise such as that which reigns within the EU, and the first consequences will already be visible this fall. By that time, the elections for the European Parliament will be held and a new European Commission formed, and perhaps the European Constitution will be passed by then. The future European Commission will have the task of setting the date of negotiations with Croatia. For now, a greater problem is the passing of the EU Constitution which is most halted by Poland, dissatisfied with its offered status of a second rate country, behind Germany, Great Britain and France. Until recently, the Poles were supported by Spain, but since official Madrid withdrew, Poland’s ambitions for realizing their political ambitions have been reduced. The enlargement of ten new members has so exhausted the EU financially that it needs a breather. With that, Croatia can be permanently pressured for a series of unresolved issues, from the fugitive general Gotovina to the exceptionally important issue of the return of previously social property to Serbian refugees to resolution of issues with our neighbours. In that context, not even Spidle’s comments are unfounded, as numerous issues on the Balkan peninsula are still unresolved, and nor are the cross border relations worked out. Thousands who want to cannot return home, it is still uncertain to whom a massive number of formerly joint companies now belong too, and there is political anarchy in Serbia and Montenegro which reminds us of the near East. Whether they like these arguments or not, that it Croatia’s reality. Therefore, it is exceptionally good that Croatia received a positive avis and that it has definitely been set apart from the other former Yugoslav countries, however, that in no way means that the diplomatic pressures will subside. At least we could receive the negotiation start date by this winter. And then the race in on to complete the entire process by 2009.