THE COMMANDER IN CHIEF'S DECISION President Stjepan Mesic at one of the press conferences with former Defence Minister Berislav Roncevic, and the current Chief of General Staff, General Josip LucicLast week, Croatian President Stjepan Mesic hinted that the time had come for Armed Forces Chief of General Staff General Josip Lucic to step down. Mesic said, among other things, that Lucic's work was complete. In saying so he meant that the top man in the Croatian Army had implemented all of the necessary reforms in the Armed Forces required for full membership in NATO, and that the time had come for him to step down after six years at the helm of the Croatian Army.

Lucic is expected to leave the post in early October of this year. The only serious candidates to replace him as the head of the Armed Forces are Lucic's current deputy, Lieutenant General Slavko Baric, and the director of the Military Security & Intelligence Agency, Lieutenant General Darko Grdic, although Baric is by far the more likely candidate, Nacional has learned from sources close to Croatian Government. To date Lieutenant General Slavko Baric has carried out most of the operational assignments at the Supreme Command. He has a very good understanding of the transformation and modernisation processes in the Armed Forces, knows the other military commanders very well, their capabilities and shortcomings, and that would make Baric the logical choice. He also has the favour of President Mesic and of Defence Minister Branko Vucelic. Baric was born in Belisce in 1957 and has a Master's degree in the social sciences. He has completed the Croatian Army's Command Staff College and War College. He was the wartime commander of the 108th brigade and commander of the Osijek military district.

There are several reasons why General Lucic will be stepping down this year. It was expected that he would be relieved of the command post in 2008, when his five-year term expired. It is customary in all armies around the world for the Chief of General Staff to step down after their terms are up, be they of three, four or five years. Which was why the decision last year by the national leadership to appoint Lucic to a second term came as a surprise. Nevertheless, President Stjepan Mesic and Prime Minister Ivo Sanader have agreed that it would have been inappropriate to relieve Lucic just ahead of Croatia's accession to full membership in NATO given that Lucic and his associates had in the five years of his term been successful in implementing all of the necessary organisational and personnel reforms in the Armed Forces, and made the Croatian Army a credible partner to allied forces in the field, which daily have words of praise for Croatian troops.

That is why the national leadership, in gratitude for a job well done, allowed General Lucic to stay on at the helm of the Army he has now taken through the doors of NATO. There had been word that Lucic would step down when President Mesic left office next year. That, however, would not suit Mesic, as he would then have no influence on the choice of Lucic's successor. One should not forget that Mesic will continue to be active in politics after leaving the president's office, and he will certainly have a favourite in the presidential race. If "his" candidate wins the elections he would leave him in his legacy a person at the helm of the Army with whom the new president could successfully cooperate.

And given that the Chief of General Staff is also the President's chief military advisor, Mesic certainly wants to influence the selection. Slavko Baric has proven himself a military professional over the past, he has been self-denying in doing much of the organisational and operational work, and is as such the logical choice for President Mesic.

Furthermore, the scandal that has broken regarding the acquisition of military lorries in 2004 does not work in General Lucic's favour and his staying on at the post of Chief of General Staff. The Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has quite openly attacked General Jozo Milicevic, and thereby General Lucic, who was at odds with Berislav Roncevic, the former defence minister, over the procurement of the military lorries. With the departure of Mesic, General Lucic would be out of favour with the HDZ as the fact that he was the first to bring the lorry scandal to the light of day would not be forgotten.

And having mentioned General Jozo Milicevic is should be said that he has a bright future ahead of him, however much that presently appears unlikely, as over the past few weeks there was an impression that Milicevic had permanently shut the door on his own promotion and future career by speaking out against Roncevic. Jozo Milicevic was recently sent to the National War College, the most prestigious such institution in the USA, for a one-year course. There is no doubt that Milicevic went to the school thanks to the support of General Lucic and President Mesic, precisely because of his role in the lorry scandal. How else can one explain the fact that Milicevic has had the rank of Major General since 1996, that he has, therefore, gone thirteen years without a promotion and better positioning within the ranks of the Armed Forces, completely marginalised. It would be malevolent to claim that only the HDZ had marginalised Milicevic because of the lorry scandal, because Milicevic fared no better under the coalition government led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Milicevic had also been forgotten by President Mesic and General Lucic throughout the past six years. The reason lies in the fact that Milicevic spent most of his career SLAVKO BARIC is to succeed Josip Lucic at the post of Chief of General Staffawaiting assignment or on sick leave, that he lacks charisma among Croatian Army generals and in the fact that no one sees him as a potential leader with organisational and diplomatic capabilities. The turnaround came when Milicevic, as the Acting Chief Inspector at the Ministry of Defence drafted findings that claimed there had be irregularities during the procurement of lorries in 2004, and that millions of kuna had not been paid into the national coffers. Milicevic, in fact, put together a report that dovetailed with what President Mesic had already said concerning illegal activity that occurred during the procurement of the lorries.

Lucic had briefed Mesic on the case before that. Milicevic's career has taken off since then, the first step of which was getting an education in the USA as soon as an opportunity for it emerged. His recent sharp statements directed against Roncevic have, in fact, secured him a future. For the opposition SDP, Milicevic overnight went from forgotten general to a true fighter in the battle against corruption, and his statements met with the strong approval of the still active Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, President Stjepan Mesic. The HDZ considers Milicevic's departure for a prestigious education in the USA a kind of presidential award for the inspectorate's findings regarding the procurement of the lorries, and that impression has been further strengthened by Milicevic's testimony against former Defence Minister Berislav Roncevic, given before a Parliamentary commission. General Lucic is also involved to a great extent, as the person who proposed Milicevic for the US college, and Lucic too is probably now aware that he is numbering his last weeks at the post of Chief of General Staff, because if he was not already leaving soon, the HDZ would dismiss him at the first opportunity anyway.

Had Defence Minister Vukelic failed to sign the decision sending Milicevic to the US college, the HDZ would have been put to shame ahead of the local elections given that Milicevic has for most Croatians and for most of the press become a synonym of the fight against corruption. It should not be forgotten that General Milicevic was very useful to the SDP as a powerful political weapon, i.e. in a showdown with the HDZ coming into the local elections, and the SDP will not forget that when it takes power. On the other hand, there is a possibility that the President will promote Jozo Milicevic to the rank of lieutenant general before his term expires, which also has its consequences. But even if that does not happen, Milicevic is certainly in line for a good appointment.

The HDZ, namely, could have serious headaches on General Milicevic's account when he returns in 2010 from his one-year course in the USA. The American side will carefully monitor General Milicevic's career in the Croatian Army as it has paid for most of his education at America's most prestigious war college. The HDZ-led government will not be able to marginalise Milicevic, but will have to, given his education and rank, secure him an appropriate appointment. Nacional has learned that after receiving his education, Milicevic will be sent to one of the NATO member countries as a military attaché. And that might just be a transitory solution, because at the next elections for Parliament in 2012 the SDP could take power, which would put Milicevic in a very good position to, after a time, take a very high post in the Croatian Army.