The “Alliance for Europe”, a collection of all the parties, primarily SDP under the coat-tails of HDZ for Croatia’s accession into the European Union, is Sanader’s great victory. With that move, which was announced a year and a half ago, he has achieved several goals and partially made up for the defeat of Jadranka Kosor at the presidential elections. This “Alliance” however, has brought both Sanader and Račan many problems within their own parties and with their coalition partners, as many see this pact between Račan and Sanader as the first step towards a large coalition of the two strongest parties.

Such an alliance would certainly accelerate the EU negotiations and entry into the Union. The negotiations between Croatia and the EU will be held on 36 chapters, each with 10 items, for a total of 360 issues. If the opposition were to create problems on all 360 issues and request long parliamentary debates, the negotiations would not be complete in ten years time. As head of the National Board for Negotiations with the EU, Račan will have to be cooperative and accelerate the process, he will have to participate in resolving problems, and must not boycott the process, while Sanader will collect the political points and fame. Račan will find it easier to bear the criticisms from within his own party over this cooperation with Sanader than to be criticized by the public for being inconsistent, and for obstructing the EU accession process in order to save his credibility in SDP. Nacional has received confirmation from within SDP that he is not having an easy time in the party. His harshest critics, Željka Antunović, Neven Mimica, Ljubo Jurčić, Ingrid Antičević – Marinović, Slavko Linić and Zoran Milanović, believe that their party president is making all the wrong moves and leading the party into disaster, and that it will lose the trust of its voters, as with this kind of an alliance loses, the political differences between the two largest parties disappears. After the establishment of such a silent coalition, who would vote for SDP? Račan’s critics believe that it is dangerous for SDP to come so close to HDZ and that the critical differences between power and opposition are being lost, which is not good for democracy in Croatia. Only the most likely candidate for Zagreb mayor, Milan Bandić, has completely supported Račan’s agreement with HDZ. There are also stories that in the SDP-HDZ deal, included is HDZ’s support for Bandić in Zagreb.

In order to justify himself before the party leadership, Račan placed a media story last week that he had given Sanader nine conditions for cooperation in the “Alliance for Europe”. Considering that Sanader is also not having an easy time within his party, the Premier responded the following day that this was not the truth, as no conditions had been set before him and that the resignation of Minister Žužul, one of the conditions listed, was never even mentioned. In this article, Račan stressed that Žužul’s resignation was one of the key conditions. Račan wrongly assessed that Sanader would keep quiet about this, thereby protecting him within SDP, as it is more important for him to keep Račan as a partner than to explain to his membership that these claims were not true. Despite the high fever he has been fighting for the past few days, Sanader had no difficulty harshly criticizing Račan and defending himself.

Račan had forgotten that Sanader is also having problems within his own party with those people who cannot understand that he has succeeded in putting Račan in a position he will not get out of easily. Račan could perhaps preserve his integrity had he not struck a deal with Sanader on the parliamentary committee. When he decided to help Sanader out on this issue, that was Sanader’s final victory. On the other hand, it must be said that Sanader’s “Alliance for Europe” is an excellent idea which in the end will benefit both Sanader and Račan. And most of all, the state, as this will be the fastest and least painful entry into the EU.

This alliance between SDP and HDZ will be most beneficial for HNS and HSP. Tomčić’s HSS is not in such a solid position as they have already announced their coalition with SDP for the local elections. Political analysts believe, as confirmed by one of President Mesić’s closest associates, that the coming days will be the perfect opportunity for HNS to re-profile itself as an independent, strong party with strong principles. Those close to HNS believe that Vesna Pusić will have to make a decisive move with regards to Srećko Ferenčak, who was involved in the affair with the sale of land intended for the handicapped. Regardless of whether Ferenčak is guilty or innocent, this land issue is too complicated for the public to sort through it. A large portion of the voting body see him as a person who is hiding something, and those close to the president believe that Ferenčak is only a burden for HNS. This is the party’s opportunity to win more than 10% of the vote at the local elections, which would be the springboard for the parliamentary elections. Ferenčak should leave his party functions and remain a parliamentary representative, while HNS should not turn him away as he is still one of the best organizers in Croatian politics.

The deal between HDZ and SDP has opened a great deal of breathing room for HNS, which has been on the decline due to the inflexible conduct of Vesna Pusić. Račan has now given her a final chance to return this party to its political peak. If she does not take advantage of this opportunity, HNS will have to think long and hard about its future, and the ultimate consequence would be a poor election result and Pusić’s resignation as party president. However, by then it will be too late. The majority of the party leadership do not agree with her politics, but they do not dare to state this publicly. One of her greatest critics is Savka Dabčević-Kučar, the “mother” of HNS, who believes that Vesna Pusić is leading the party towards minorization.

The second party with a great opportunity of profiting form the SDP-HDZ deal is HSP. Just as SDP has opened the door for HNS, so has HDZ for HSP. Unlike Vesna Pusić, Anto Djapić has only made one wrong move of late – supporting political sideliner Slaven Letica at the presidential elections. However, he realized this on time and completely withdrew from the campaign. Djapić reacts quickly and has formed the basis for his long anticipated participation in the government. Djapić will certainly not enter into any coalitions until the local election results are in. If his party fares well, a coalition between HDZ and HSP is very likely, to form a firm right block. Sanader was not able to do that when he formed the government due to the EU’s oppositions of a party of HSP’s image participating in the HDZ government. Now the situation has changed. Djapić has cleverly decided to “humanize” the party by attracting Mate Granić. After the Supreme Court freed him of any guilt in the “Končar” affair, Granić’s reputation with the voters and foreign diplomats has become increasingly attractive for HSP. With him, HSP becomes absolutely acceptable for HDZ as a coalition partner. It is now certain that the coalition marriage between HDZ and the Serbian Democratic Independent Party and the Croatian Pensioner’s Party will break apart sooner or later, as Sanader will not be able to give them what he promised. In that case, Sanader will have to find new partners, and for him, HSP with Mate Granić is an ideal option. As Nacional has learned, Granić’s ties to HSP are satisfying to both Mesić and Sanader, which see this as an important guarantee that there will be no parliamentary or political crisis.

Big problems in The Hague

Furthermore, the Hague expressed its dissatisfaction with the work of the POA agency, now lead by Tomislav Karamarko. They have complained that Karamarko has done nothing more than his predecessors Josko Podbevšek and Franjo Turek. In order to rectify these new threats, Sanader and Žužul are about to launch a diplomatic offensive in the European capitals. This is certainly not easy on Žužul. Though his resignation was accepted, he continues to work as a minister, which only erodes his credibility, and he rightfully wonders what he needs all this for, as Nacional has learned from sources close to his family.