If the elections were held today, the ballot led by Branimir Glavaš would win the most votes in Osijek, while HDZ would win in the Osijek-Baranja County. This is the result of Nacional’s opinion poll conducted on Sunday 24 April on a sample of 1000 people. Though it is unquestionable that Glavaš has taken a significant portion of the vote away from his former party, he and HDZ still win a relative majority in that region.

The media elimination of Sanader from eastern Slavonia was handled by Mate Radeljić, who was fired from his post as deputy to Jadranka Kosor only one day earlierIn Osijek, 19.9% of those polled support Glavaš, while 19.4% intend to vote for the joint ballot SDP-HSS. In third place, with 16.7% is current Osijek mayor Zlatko Kramarić, who heads up the coalition HNS-LS-SBHS-Zeleni, while HDZ is fourth with 13.4%, tied with HSP. HSU also crosses the election threshold with 6.5%, as does HSLS with 5.4%. The situation is somewhat different in the county, where the HDZ-HSLS coalition is still strongest with 26.3% support, followed by SDP-HSS with 21.7% and Glavaš is third with 14.6%. If one considers that HDZ, led by Branimir Glavaš won the last elections with 36% of the vote, then Nacional’s survey indicates that he has stolen a large portion of HDZ’s votes. The retained support for HDZ-HSLS is quite surprising, considering that the ballot is headed up by a certain Luka Crnojević, a complete unknown, even to those best acquainted with the political situation in eastern Slavonia. In any case, it is certain that Glavaš will continue to strongly influence the formation of the government in that region.

For the past 15 years, Branimir Glavaš has been in power in the Osijek-Baranja County, where according to his orders a hundred directors were fired from various companies, only for those companies to undergo transformation, HDZ style. Those well informed confirmed for Nacional that there is not a single company in that part of Croatia that is not controlled by Glavaš’s men. Glavaš also has complete control over the local media, from Glas Slavonia and several radio stations to the contributing offices of all the Croatian daily newspapers. He demonstrated his power over Sanader when the Premier rushed to Osijek in order to quickly compile the new HDZ ballot list. Though Sanader’s arrival was followed by a news team of Slavonia TV, the fact that the Premier visited Osijek was a ten-second news piece without any clips. Meanwhile, a 15 minute clip of Glavaš’s press conference in which he attacked Sanader was run. That report was again repeated several times the following day. The media elimination of Sanader from eastern Slavonia was handled by Mate Radeljić, who was fired from his post as deputy to Jadranka Kosor only one day earlier. Radeljić is a declared HDZer who was posted as the head of the HTV office in Osijek in the mid 1990s by Obrad Kosovac. He purchased an apartment of 120 sq.m. at very favourable credit rates, and he recruited journalists in the office from the ranks of HDZ Youth. Now that HDZ has forced him out of Zagreb, Nacional’s sources claim that Radeljic is soon to become editor-in-chief of Slavonia TV.

It is already obvious that the conflict between Glavaš and HDZ will be the central topic of the Osijek elections. Glavaš is aware that he will have to seek voters in the HDZ voting body, as well as trying to woo HSP voters. The third potential group is part of the 40% who did not vote in the last local elections in the Osijek-Baranja County, believing that none of the candidates represented local interests. The feeling of hopelessness and neglect by the state structures in Zagreb is very strong in Slavonia, and Glavaš is counting on this to win votes. The unemployment rate in Slavonia is above 30% while last years economic losses totaled 480,000,000 kuna. Like the other regions, Slavonia gets back only a small portion of the revenues earned, as profit tax is paid in the county where the company headquarters are stationed. For the most part, it is the City of Zagreb that reaps the benefits, as money earned by Agrokor, Croatian Forests or Croatian Water in Slavonia and elsewhere remains here.

This kind of a situation suits Glavaš who, one year ago, won 36% of the vote in the county elections as head of the HDZ ballot. It did not take much to strike a coalition deal with HSU and SDSS, thereby giving him the majority. The current situation is quite different and Glavaš’s ballot will likely not take more than 20-25% of the vote. In order to maintain his position as county prefect, he will have to find new allies, but this time that will be much more difficult, even if the Serbian party and pensioners support him again. HDZ is no longer an opinion, Kramarić in Osijek and Vilim Herman in Zupanja likewise, while no thought has been given to a coalition with SDP and HSS. He is left only with HSP, which is not an option as Djapić wants to enter into a state-wide coalition with HDZ, as well as the personal dimension. In 1991, it was Glavaš that cast Djapic out of HDZ, something Djapić has never forgiven him. Moreover, it is very likely that HSP will benefit most from this rift in HDZ in Slavonia, where they are best able to represent their right-wing policies. Unlike Sanader’s HDZ which has become a pro-European party, thereby losing voter in Osijek and the surrounding areas, HSP has maintained its right-wing rhetoric.

Sanader’s attempts to apprehend Ante Gotovina have lead the HDZ voters towards HSP, and several months ago, Glavaš also realized that it would be difficult to win under such circumstances and he then began to distance himself from his own party. At first he tried to prevent Ivica Todorić from acquiring PPK Belje and then – though he knew it was impossible – he sought massive budget funds for his county. Finally, at the rally of the HDZ Youth, he paid a series of compliments to Gotovina. At that time, it was already clear that a split was inevitable, even though those close to Glavaš claim that they did not expect it to happen so suddenly. They believed that Sanader would tolerate Glavaš’s provocations as according to the opinion polls, Osijek and Zadar are the only large cities in Croatia where HDZ has a chance at victory. However, the decisions in the ‘Viktor Lenac’ affair brought the conflict between Glavaš and Sanader to a boil. Glavaš’s men claim that their boss has documents which seriously compromise Ivica Račan, but it was Sanader who prevented them from going public, for which he had the help of Djapić who presided over the parliamentary commission. Sanader did not accept Glavaš’s method because he needs Račan’s alliance in Croatia’s attempts to start EU accession talks. Had the Premier attacked Račan, he would have lost the support of the leader of the largest opposition party. Glavaš realized that he no longer has any influence over Sanader and he insulted Florijan Boras, knowing that his split with HDZ was coming. A little overconfident, he thought that Sanader would not take it to the end of the line as all the HDZers in Osijek-Baranja County are Glavaš’s men. Here he guessed wrong, and Sanader managed to slap together ballot lists for the county and the majority of cities and, according to opinion polls, HDZ will still fare well. Furthermore, Glavaš is strong in the Osijek region, but his influence is weak in the other four Slavonian counties and only if he achieves great election success can he count on the spread of his ideas outside Osijek and the surrounding areas.

The question now surrounds post-election coalitions, and whether the support of HSP will be sufficient for HDZ to maintain power at the county level. As Djapić has said many times before, HSP will not enter a coalition with SDSS, and the support of the pensioners is also increasingly questionable, some people believe that the until recently unimaginable coalition HDZ-SDP is now possible. Glavaš will certainly continue to strongly influence the politics in his region, but never again will he be the unofficial ruler of Slavonia as he has been for the past 15 years.