The sudden improvement in relations between Croatia and the US has a very interesting and, until now, unknown dimension that proves that the region of the former Yugoslavia is of exceptional strategic importance to the US due to new secretive processes ongoing there. This new global dimension also explains why Croatian Premier Sanader was received at such a high level in Washington last week—like no one ever before him. He was received by President Bush, Vice-President Cheney, State Secretary Rice and Defence Minister Rumsfeld, the four most powerful people in the US and the world. They were all very interested to speak with Sanader, as the American administration has assessed that Croatia could soon play a pivotal role in the stabilization of security in the former Yugoslavia. The US assesses that this region may again be on the brink of instability due to the Iran situation. Washington fears that the Western Balkans could again become the site of a war conflict and is seeking a reliable partner. And the only possible reliable partner in the problematic region is Croatia.

The US holds that Croatia is in an advanced phase of reforms and is the only stable country in the former Yugoslavia still to undergo Euro-Atlantic integrations. Croatia is also sufficiently economically stable to be the foothold for US policy in this region. The American military and intelligence analysts have assessed that there is a certain risk of a new war conflict in the Balkans based on seemly unusual, though in fact logical alliances that have begun to form. Few have spoke out about it, but nine months ago, an exceptionally significant news article came out, perhaps recklessly, which was then vehemently denied.

On Monday 23 January of this year, the Iranian state news agency IRNA released an interesting and – obviously to the US – very important news article from Teheran. The article, in its entirety, reads:

“SECURITY AGREEMENT WITH SERBIA
TEHRAN, Jan. 22—First Vice President Parviz Davoudi on Sunday authorized the signing of a temporary agreement on security cooperation between Iran and Serbia-Montenegro, IRNA reported. In response to the Interior Ministry’s proposal, the cabinet authorized the Intelligence Ministry to temporarily ink such an agreement. The move is in accordance with Article 2 of the bylaw on drawing up and signing international contracts approved in 1992.”

This news aroused substantial interest within the intelligence community, revealing that Serbia and Iran had worked out a secret security arrangement at the time the American pressures against Iran were increasing over that country\'s nuclear program and when western countries were beginning to organize a political blockage and announce the possibility of military pressures. The article does not reveal the type of security agreement, whether this refers only to the exchange of intelligence, the supply of arms or a stronger military alliance. There have been some suspicions that Iran was in particular interested in the Serbia’s experiences from the 1999 Kosovo War, particularly concerning the attack of NATO air force, though this could be part of a much wider and stronger agreement.

This news was very awkward for the government in Belgrade, as it was obvious that Belgrade and Teheran had conducted secret talks on their security cooperation, while Teheran let the cat out of the bag. The government in Belgrade reacted nervously to the article via its own press agency Tanjug, denying the signing of an agreement.

“NO FOUNDATION TO CLAIMS OF SECURITY AGREEMENT BETWEEN IRAN AND SERBIA & MONTENEGRO
26 January2006 16:59 Belgrade (Tanjug)—The Foreign Ministry of Serbia & Montenegro announced today that the claims released by the Iranian state news agency IRNA that the governments of Iran and the Council of Ministers of Serbia & Montenegro had signed an agreement in the field of security are unfounded.
\'The only document that has been signed, and that was back in December 2001, is the Memorandum of Understanding and Cooperation in Combating the Illegal Trade of Drugs, Illicit Substances and Raw Materials,\' announced the Ministry.“

Analysts have been quick to note that Tanjug only denied claims that the two governments had signed such a security agreement which, perhaps, may not have been signed by the Belgrade time at the time of the press release, but does not deny that the talks had been held and an informal agreement reached on the basis of those talks. This possible agreement worries Washington, as the question must be posed as to the kind of security arrangement reached. An earlier news report from IRNA from June 2005 proves that there were in fact talks held.

At that time, the IRNA released an article on the visit by Deputy Foreign Minister of Serbia & Montenegro Predrag Boskovic to Iran, where he was received by Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi. IRNA cites Boskovic\'s official statement on behalf of his government, stating that the “position of Iran on regional and international issues is positive and constructive.” According to IRNA, Boskovic informed Kharrazi “of the situation in the Western Balkans, which has entered into a new phase”. During the two day visit, Boskovic signed two agreements of understanding with the Iranian officials, though at that time there was no news as to what these agreements concerned.

It is interesting that this news report also aroused interest in the US and on certain American internet forums dealing with global military issues, this was already interpreted to be the start of Iranian-Serbian talks on broader military cooperation concerning Kosovo. Proof that the international relations between the countries has since intensified was seen in a recent news piece. A large trade delegation from Iran visited Belgrade last month in order to finalize an agreement for Iran to grant Serbia a trade loan of 39 million dollars. The IRNA also released this news.

American intelligence services have certainly closely analysed the relations between Serbia and Iran in an attempt to conclude what they could mean. Their conclusion was that an entire range of scenarios in the future of Serbian-Iranian cooperation is possible, including certain malicious outcomes in the region of the former Yugoslavia. According to information Nacional has received from persons close to the US State Department, after the news report by IRNA, Washington has become increasingly concerned over the threats to peace throughout the entire region, particularly in the relations between Serbia and Kosovo.

Washington has even assessed the possibility that this agreement refers to joint military operations between Iran and Serbia in the event the US launches a military campaign against Iran in order to prevent that country’s nuclear armament. In this drastic and malicious scenario, the danger of war would again hang over the eastern part of the former Yugoslavia as in such a situation, Serbia could take advantage of the US’s engagement in Iran to launch a military intervention in Kosovo in order to regain military control over it. This would benefit Iran, as the US would be faced with yet another crisis spot, thereby reducing US pressures against Iran.

At the current time, the US military forces are maximally engaged in various parts of the world. Alongside the massive engagement of the US in both Iraq and Afghanistan, there is also the threat of an escalation in the crisis over North Korea and Iran over their attempts to produce nuclear weapons. Stopping these countries from doing so is one of the top American foreign policy objectives and military doctrines. If the US is to face Iran and North Korea in the near future, it would in no way be able to take on yet another battlefront – Kosovo. The US has a large military base in Kosovo, “Bondsteel”, one of the largest in Europe, but this alone would be unable to protect Kosovo without military reinforcements.

Washington is taking the agreement between Belgrade and Teheran – as cited by the IRNA – very seriously. As such, the American government is aiming to create a new security structure in this part of the world as a preventative measure, as well as to strengthen its position in military terms. Therefore, it needs a reliable partner in the region, and Croatia is the only possible country that fits the bill. Building a strong security system, for the time being, has a predominantly political dimension, as these possible threats in the region are still of a political nature. Washington is most concerned about the Serbian radicals, who have threatened to take power in Serbia in the near future after winning parliamentary elections. Their leader has openly stated that Kosovo should be defended using military means.

In such a situation, Washington needs Croatia as a reliable partner via which it can politically influence the development of events in the region. For the time being, the basic request is that Zagreb keep out of the relations between Serbia and Kosovo, and to leave this to the international community. The community believes that a solution for Kosovo is possible by year’s end, or rather, by the decision that Kosovo is to become an independent country with limited sovereignty and a grace period of several years. This request from Washington, that Zagreb stay out of the Kosovo issue, primarily refers to President Stjepan Mesic, who has always made it clear that he has very good relations with the Albanian authorities in both Tirana and Pristina.