Miomir Zuzul, one of a dozen HDZ MPs for releasing Branimir Glavas On Sunday, 19 November, just before midnight, Ivo Sanader decided that the HDZ members of parliament would confirm the decision of the Mandate-Immunity Commission to not release Branimir Glavas from police custody. This was the epilogue of days of secret meetings and numerous consultations at the highest level to discuss Glavas’s fate. During the meetings with party colleagues and representatives of other parties, Sanader changed his position from the previous week and forced Vladimir Seks to convince the HDZ members of parliament to support the decision of the Mandate-Immunity Commission. This marked a turnabout in the Premier’s conduct, as it was he who first initiated HDZ’s position that Glavas should be released, and later retracted that, stating it was just a misunderstanding.

It all started on Thursday, 9 November, with a secret meeting between Ivo Sanader, Vladimir Seks and Anto Djapic in the government building in Zagreb. The Osijek mayor has become a type of liaison between Glavas and the Premier, and is also an advocate of releasing the HDZ dissident and allowing him to face trial as a free man. At that meeting, Sanader accepted Djapic’s arguments and ordered Seks to initiate the release of Branimir Glavas in the parliament. It was also decided that Djapic was to try to calm Glavas down, so that he would not immediately attack Sanader and Seks upon his release. In short, in return for his freedom, he would have to consent to silence and not condemning the government or the witnesses that have accused him of the liquidation of Serbs in Osijek.

Even the minutest details were agreed, to the extent that Djapic agreed to fully hand over the initiative to HDZ, so that HSP would not pick up any political points in the case, and he promised to try to pacify the representatives from Glavas’s party. They would be allowed only to speak of their leader, but absolutely not to attack the HDZ government.

Sanader agreed to release Glavas out of pragmatic reasons. Associates have convinced the Premier that Glavas is ready to continue his hunger strike to his death, and such a death would represent a serious blow to HDZ. There is strong discontent among the representatives of the ruling party in the parliament, with many cooperating with Glavas for years, others are his close friends. Many among them have applied strong pressures to Vladimir Seks and demanded that he try to influence Sanader. On the other hand, Djapic also got involved and at the meeting, informed the Premier that hostility against HDZ and the government is growing in Osijek. In fact, the HSP president described the situation in Osijek as being of great concern.

On that Thursday, it appeared that it was a done deal. It had all been arranged and Seks implemented the plan at the parliamentary session held on Wednesday, 15 November. The HDZ and HSP representatives supported the arguments of the Speaker against removing Glavas’ immunity.

The Slavonian regionalists were mild, while the SDP, HNS and IDS representatives were harshest to attack when they warned that this was an obstruction of the rule of law. That evening, Seks commented for Croatian Television that Glavas should not be in custody due to the weight of the crime, defending his position that more than ten men suspected of war crimes have been allowed to face trial as free men.

Immediately, Sanader was faced with foreign pressures and he promptly backed away from the deal, to the complete surprise of both Seks and Djapic. A high ranking government source confirmed for Nacional that the Premier was facing pressures from all sides. Just a few hours after the parliamentary session, the first to react was Vincent Degert, representative of the European Commission in Croatia. Though he did not explicitly attack the ruling party, he evidently warned Sanader on behalf of the EU that he had opted for the wrong policy.

“It will all depend on how the judiciary does its job. We are following this case and we know about the discussions ongoing in Croatia. We have to see how this will be resolved and then we can conduct an analysis and make our conclusions,” stated Degert.

The European Union was already on its feet at the statement that Glavas could be released from detention. After his appearance on television, Degert called Sanader and in the hours that followed, Sanader had to defend his decision in conversations with the French and three other ambassadors accredited in Zagreb. They all expressed their dissatisfaction with the possible release of Branimir Glavas and the Premier buckled under that pressure.

The initial decision to vote in Glavas’ favour already harmed Sanader’s image within diplomatic circles. From outside, Croatia again appeared to be a country in which politics dictated the work of the judicial system, and well known politicians were granted amnesty for their involvement in war crimes. This time, Sanader’s rating would be irreparably harmed and it is certain that the EU negotiations would be prolonged.

However, Seks and Djapic disagree. Sources close to them claim that the EU is insisting on respect for legal procedure, but will not get involved in government and parliamentary proceedings. That means that no one is allowed to obstruct the investigation and everything else is left to the judiciary. Those in support of releasing Glavas claim that from his conduct to date, there is no indication of a flight risk and furthermore, a large share of those indicted by the Hague are awaiting their trials as free men. Initially, Sanader accepted these arguments, but was forced to back down following international pressures.

Sanader’s unexpected metamorphosis caused a great deal of consternation within the HDZ ranks. Several MPs and members of the party headquarters confirmed for Nacional that this behaviour is insulting for the party. It is difficult to say whether they are angry because of the new instructions, the implementation of which could lead to Glavas’ death, or whether they were forced to defend two opposing stances in only two days.

With respect to Glavas’ health, top physicians claim that with his newest decision to drink only water, he can survive another twenty days. The government is convinced that a compromise can be reached in the meantime.

Sanader also angered Djapic, who announced at a press conference that his party would be cutting all ties at the national level with the ruling party. This time, the HSP president is serious, as he feels that he was played. “If Seks has become Sanader’s follower, I certainly haven’t,” he explained in recent days.

On Saturday, 18 November, at the Klis airport near Osijek, the Premier and Djapic met again to try to work out the conflict. This meeting was attended by several officials, including Jadranka Kosor and Bozo Biskupic. Djapic was particularly harsh. At first Sanader stated that he had nothing to do with the entire case, as it had been Djapic and Seks who had independently agreed that Glavas should be released. Sanader’s amnesia regarding the meeting of the three men 9 days earlier angered the Osijek mayor. When the Premier began to defend his position by saying that it is not up to the MPs to vote on cases in which there is already a court decision, Djapic asked him if he would say the same thing if SDP won the next elections. “Will you then support the HSPers when they raise their hands to take all of you responsible for the Brodosplit affair into custody?” he asked.

Regardless of the conflict now in place between Sanader, Seks and Djapic, a break in cooperation and partnership is not an option. However, the Premier is in a very difficult situation as he has still not succeeded in breaking Vladimir Seks, Andrija Hebrang, Miomir Zuzul and a dozen other HDZers who still support Glavas’ release. What does suit Sanader is that Glavas, instead of staying quiet, continues to cause scandals. Recently, he sent a message to the government building again calling Seks a drunk, and an even uglier insult at the Premier’s expense.

It is questionable whether and to what extent the Premier will receive the support of all the HDZ MPs and as such, Sanader has turned to his informal partners such as HSLS. He convinced Durda Adlesic to send him an open letter, seeking him to take decisive action in order to end the political crisis. She abided and on Monday, 20 November, sent a letter saying that the HDZ MPs would have to vote for keeping Glavas in detention. Considering that the majority of the HDZers will listen to Sanader in the end, and the opposition already feels that releasing Glavas would result in a scandal, it appears that HSP, Glavas’ three representatives and perhaps a dozen HDZers will vote for the initial deal between Sanader, Seks and Djapic.

This means that Sanader has once again listened to the European Union and moved away from the right wing. From the strategic perspective, this is a good decision, but the question arises as to why the Premier needed such a scandal. It was clear that taking Glavas into detention would arouse harsh criticisms from Slavonia, but there are always risks that need to be taken. Instead of simply ordering his followers to confirm the decision of the Mandate-Immunity Commission and leaving the entire situation up to the judiciary, Sanader compromised himself over Glavas, a person the Premier has a very poor opinion of. All in all, for the first time, his reputation within HDZ has been seriously blemished. Though he was never loved by all within the party, this is the first time that they have taken to publicly opposing him.

email to: Robert Bajrusi