ABSOLUTE POWER Sanader has dealt ruthlessly with everyone in the party who was not on his side, and now enjoys absolute power and peace in the HDZ The two biggest parliamentary parties have decided last week who their presidential candidates will be. The HDZ candidate will be the current Prime Minister and party leader Ivo Sanader. At Ibler Square, in SDP headquarters, 300 metres from the headquarters of their chief political adversary, they have opted for former minister and European negotiator Neven Mimica. Perhaps that is a surprise for some, but for those well versed in the situation it is the only logical solution, and any other would have been the real surprise. It is of less importance whether both parties, for tactical or strategic reasons, will come clean to the public on who they have picked, but the decisions are definite and now the others who feel that they stand a chance in the race for Pantovcak can plan their activities.

Sanader has learned the art of guile while serving his two terms as Prime Minister, a skill he did not lack even before taking office. He has seen his ups and downs, was ruthless in dealing with enemies, is a vindictive spitfire, and has created an unbelievable level of authority in the party, not to say a reign of fear, and become the absolute ruler of everything that happens within the HDZ. The HDZ of Franjo Tudjman was nothing compared to the one Sanader leads.

There was factional infighting during Tudjman's leadership of the party between the "urban" HDZ, led by Franjo Greguric, and the "rural", or better put "Herzegovinian", faction led by Gojko Susak, and then by Ivic Pasalic. Even when in full health Tudjman was unable to prevent this polarisation of the party, and he completely lost control when his fateful illness was discovered. Sanader dealt ruthlessly with everyone in the party who was not on his line, and now enjoys absolute power and peace in the HDZ. He is the man everyone turns to. The only thing comparable at this moment with that kind of party discipline and fear is Putin's rule of the United Russia party. It is hard to find a similar example of monolithic leadership based on a leader's authority in Europe. The only person to stand against him during these years of Sanader's rule was President Stipe Mesic, the only person whose public activity and authority Sanader fears.

DAMIR POLANCEC is Sanader's favourite for the top spot in a future government Since he knows him well, he knows that Mesic, who people still trust the most, regardless of whether the Government will admit it or not, is ready to attack the Prime Minister for every move he considers wrong. Sanader appeared to be on the defensive every time they were at odds, and is likely to go on behaving that way until the end of Mesic's term in office, unless the incumbent President opts to meddle grossly in an election campaign for his successor in a way opposing the HDZ president. Having learned from his experiences so far, and with all of his comparative advantages over other possible candidates, Sanader will certainly not allow anyone who would reduce his power or lecture him to sit at the President's Office on Pantovcak. With whom inside or outside of the HDZ would Sanader wish to share power when he has the parliamentary majority and a never-before-stronger party? It is an open question as to whether he could trust Jadranka Kosor, Andrija Hebrang or someone else being mentioned as a possible candidate from the right once they sat in the President's Office, and begin to refer to themselves in the third person, revelling in their own importance.

Sanader has made the only logical move to pre-empt any kind of surprise, Nacional has learned from sources in the HDZ top leadership – and that is to himself be the presidential candidate, and to install a close confidante at the post of Prime Minister, one he has complete control of through the mechanisms of party discipline, while at the same time freezing his authorities as HDZ leader. The suspension of powers will, of course, be entirely cosmetic in nature. With a majority in Parliament, although bereft of formal authorities, he shall as President of the Republic have absolute power and decide on everything – both within Government and within the party. He will install one of his closest aides at the helm of Government, probably Damir Polancec, who will lead the day to day affairs, while the chief decisions will be made at Pantovcak, where the cabinet ministers are likely to be daily guests.

It is not unimportant that Sanader will, from the post of Head of State, be in a position to direct processes in the next parliamentary elections, which are to be held in the winter of 2011. The situation in the HDZ and his strategy are quite clear and logical, and if they bear fruit, and there is a very good chance they will, it will secure Sanader and the HDZ another decade of stable rule. That refers, of course, to an ideal situation in which neither the party or its leader will commit some great folly that would destroy them publicly. And that is not likely, because some ambitions have been satisfied already. Now they need, peacefully, to enjoy power and all it brings. And just like Sanader is the logical choice for the HDZ, so too is Mimica the logical choice for the SDP. It would be normal for Milanovic, as the head of the SDP, to square off against Sanader, but he has neither the courage, the associates, nor the amount of ammunition needed for that battle.

That is a wise decision insofar as a defeat at the presidential elections would be Milanovic's second defeat at the start of his political career, which might cost him his future. He has once dodged political euthanasia after his fall at the parliamentary elections, even though he promised he would step down from the SDP leadership post if he lost to the HDZ. He lost, he reneged, and he stayed on at the helm of the party. Which is, perhaps, no so bad, as the other pretenders to his seat – like Ostojic and Picula – would have completely destroyed the party, and it is important for Croatia that the SDP, as the leading opposition party, remains a strong one. Mimica is a man without skeletons in his closet, a calm and sensible economist, not rhetorically ostentatious, a moderate and is acceptable to everyone.

The only problem is that he has not to date demonstrated any of the characteristics of a leader, a politician who could gather a broad spectrum of people and offer them hope and perspective. It is hard to imagine him as a serious contender to the temperamental Sanader, who can react in a second and galvanise a crowd. Mesic possess charisma, as does Sanader. The question is whether Mimica has it and has not had an opportunity so far to show it. The SDP may have made a good move picking him, because he is an enduring and serious man, who can restore the respect the party enjoyed and its role as a significant player, things it lost as a result of the follies Milanovic and his associates committed after Racan's death. Mimica has nothing to lose in the encounter because, even if he does not become the President of the Republic, he will have built a new political image that could help him in possibly taking the leadership of the party over from the current leadership, which is not exactly coping brilliantly with the situation as it presently is.

If a third candidate does not pop up – a surprise nominee, which is hard to imagine – Sanader will be Croatia's new president with a never-before-seen scope of powers. The opposition must not stand on the sidelines on this one, because a balance of power in the country must always be preserved.

LOGICAL DECISION Zoran Milanovic has neither the courage or the associates needed for the presidential race, making Mimica's nomination a wise decision on the part of the SDP leader The left should be gearing up for the 2011 elections and doing everything it can to win those elections, thereby setting up a cohabitation. Unfortunately, it will be hard pressed to win them without a clear position and leader. The only real leader, regardless of his age, is Stipe Mesic, who has the strength to unit all of the parties on the left and to beat Sanader and the HDZ at the parliamentary elections. That is a task above Cacic, Milanovic, or Vesna Pusic. They will all, if they are wise, curb their ambitions and put Mesic forward as the leader of the left as soon as his term in office is over. They would have over a year to prepare for and win the elections. And, of course, the HDZ will do all it can to prevent this from happening. Everyone wants a greater slice of power. That is the essence of politics. The greater the battles between opponents, the better for Croatia's democratisation.

Mimica risks nothing Neven Mimica is not risking much in the election campaign for the post of Head of State. Even if he does not become the President of the Republic, Mimica will lose nothing, and only stands to gain. He will have built a new political image that could help him in possibly taking the leadership of the party over from the current leadership, which is not exactly coping brilliantly with the situation as it presently is. If a surprise third candidate does not emerge, Ivo Sanader is guaranteed a victory at the polls.